By Michael Vallee
The New England Patriots used a productive yet plodding offense and a fast emerging defense to defeat the San Diego Los Angeles Chargers 21-13 at Gillette on Sunday. It was by no means the Patriots best game but it was all they needed against the perpetually inconsistent, forever .500 Chargers, who managed just enough self-inflicted wounds to prevent any chance of an upset.
The Patriots are now 6-2 at the midway point, tied for the best record in the conference. Not bad for a team that started the season by getting their face stomped at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. But none of this is what Patriots fans are talking about. After months of discussion, debate and speculation on Monday night Bill Belichick dealt one of his most prized assets when he shipped QB Jimmy Garoppolo to the San Francisco 49ers for a 2018 second round pick. I’m not quite sure it qualifies as a “do you remember where you were when…” kind of trade, but for those of us that have followed every chapter of the Jimmy G saga, it comes close.
For starters, this was a deadline deal nobody saw coming. Nobody. Not Adam Schefter or Peter King. Not Ben Volin or Tom E. Curran. They were all blindsided by this trade which reportedly went from nonexistent to consummated in the span of just 24 hours. Let’s delve into the tidal wave of questions triggered by this trade and see if we can cull a few answers from this confounding situation.
The most immediate question surrounding this move is, what changed? Just six months ago Adam Schefter told anyone who would listen that the Patriots were not, under any circumstances, trading Jimmy Garoppolo, going so far as to say New England would not trade him even if they were offered four 1st round picks. It was a jarring statement for most Patriot fans, who knew Garoppolo was entering the final year of his contract and viewed him as an obvious trade piece to bring back a haul of draft picks. It was widely believed that Brady’s disciplined TB12 lifestyle and his stellar play in leading New England to yet another championship, had secured his future with the Patriots and thus a Jimmy G deal was inevitable. It was presumed that the draft return from such trade would be the cornerstone of a potentially massive offseason.
The NFL Draft came and went with no deal, making Schefter look clairvoyant and sparking a new wave of speculation about the future of the QB position in New England. Is Garoppolo officially the heir apparent to Brady? Has Brady privately informed the team of a retirement date in the near future? Could they hit Garoppolo with the franchise tag and keep both quarterbacks for the next two years? Obviously Belichick wasn’t providing any answers but his actions during the offseason spoke volumes and made one thing crystal clear – he liked Jimmy Garoppolo as a quarterback. He liked him a lot.
So what changed? How did Garoppolo go from untouchable to traded in just six months? The short answer is, nothing changed. At least not from Belichick’s perspective. Just check out what he said about Garoppolo when he faced the media the day after the trade, “I have a tremendous amount of respect for Jimmy……the 49ers are getting a good player, they’re getting a good person and they’re getting a great teammate.” Belichick added, “We probably had, in my opinion, the best quarterback situation in the league for the last, call it, two-and-a-half years.” And Belichick wasn’t even prompted by a question, that was all part of his opening statement. Belichick is not known for speaking so effusively about the dead, i.e. the recently traded, so for him, that was borderline gushing. Hell, it would take a deep Google search to find examples of Belichick speaking that glowingly of Brady.
Then there’s this. In the lengthy piece about Brady’s future at espn.com, they report that Belichick has told friends in the past year that he wants to coach Garoppolo as a starter and believes he can win a Super Bowl with him. Call it ego or simply a thirst for a fresh challenge, but Belichick clearly is intrigued, if not enamored, with the idea of Jimmy G as his full-time quarterback. So, again, what changed? Why is Jimmy Garoppolo a 49er? Let’s get back to those questions later. First, why don’t we delve into what New England got as compensation and the curious timing of the deal.
One of the tag lines you will hear about this deal is that New England used a 2nd round pick on Garoppolo and received a 2nd round pick in return, so it’s a wash. Ignore that garbage. That would be like saying a penthouse in Manhattan and a basement studio in Queens are roughly the same because they are both apartments in New York. The Patriots got back a decent return in this deal, landing a draft pick that will likely fall between picks 33 and 35. Garoppolo was drafted with the 62nd pick which is a far cry from, say, the 34th pick. Despite this, it is more than fair to ask if they could have received more, either last spring, at the deadline, or in the 2018 offseason. The answer is yes, most likely, and probably not.
Last spring is where Belichick appears to have really blown it. Mary Kay Abbott reported last offseason that the Browns’ “dream scenario” was to land Garoppolo in a trade with the 12th overall pick. This appears to contradict Ian Rapoport, who reported that the Patriots were never offered a 1st round pick by the Browns. The reality is, both can be right. The Browns may very well have wanted to land Garoppolo with the 12th pick but never formally made the Patriots an offer because of all the reports swirling around that New England had no interest in dealing him. And therein lies the rub. It is impossible to know what exactly Garoppolo’s value was last spring, because the Patriots never put him on the market. An appraiser can tell you what they think your house is worth, but you’ll never really know until you slap the “For Sale” sign on the lawn and put it on the market.
Technically we will probably never know for sure what the Patriots would have received for Garoppolo before the 2017 Draft, but a quick read of the NFL landscape and a little common sense tells you it would have been more than what they just got. Maybe a lot more. At minimum, the Browns, Bears, Texans and 49ers were looking to fill their massive hole at quarterback last spring. The list is likely longer than that but all it takes is two teams to drive up the price, so four would have been more than enough to orchestrate a bidding war. Furthermore, some of these teams, like the Browns and 49ers were sitting on a cache of extra draft picks. Add to that a QB draft class that was universally considered weak and you have the perfect opportunity for unloading a smart, accurate quarterback with movie star looks.
If New England had asked every QB starved team to make their best offer for Jimmy G, and informed them that there were multiple suitors, I will go to my grave believing they would have walked away with more than a 2nd round pick. From there the scenarios are endless.
They could have used those picks to trade down and secure even more picks over the 2017 and 2018 drafts, adding a pile of young talent to their roster.
They could have packaged those picks, moved up and filled a need with an All-Pro caliber player.
They could have drafted Deshaun Watson as the heir apparent to Brady.
They could have received the 12th pick plus Joe Haden from the Browns possibly preventing them from wasting spending 65 million on a cornerback who looks more lost in zone coverage than Harvey Weinstein at sensitivity training.
Any one of those scenarios is better than what they got from San Francisco. If Garoppolo was never going to be the future of the New England Patriots, Belichick should have maximized
his asset and squeezed as much value for him as possible. Waiting, and taking less, was just postponing the inevitable.
So, why did Belichick wait, and after waiting, why did he not just push the entire thing to next offseason? The timing of this deal was, to say the least, strange. Belichick addressed the timing when he spoke to the media Tuesday saying, “We rode it out as long as we could”, then, in reference to keeping both Brady and Garoppolo said, “We, over a period of time, explored every option to try to sustain it.” Again, a modest read between the lines tells you that Belichick was all in on Jimmy G, to the point where he was willing to sacrifice a return on the asset just to have a chance to keep his talented backup. This was confirmed Monday by Adam Schefter on WEEI’s Kirk & Callahan Show when Schefter indicated the team had been working on a bridge deal with their backup QB.
Thinking they could sign Garoppolo strikes me as foolish, bordering on insane. Why would a talented veteran NFL QB agree to spend his first 7 years relegated to the bench, earning roughly half of what he’s worth, to eventually play for a coach that might be retired by the time he gets his shot? And if he did sign a deal like that wouldn’t it instantly call into question his competitiveness? After he signed the deal wouldn’t you be tempted to turn to him and say, “What the hell is wrong with you? Don’t you want to compete? Why would you sign away half of your prime to be a backup?”
And let’s pretend for a minute that Garoppolo’s love of cold weather, crippling traffic and Dunkin Donuts actually had him contemplating signing such a deal, isn’t that something you should have ascertained six months ago? Belichick looks like a sucker on this one, an NFL coach suddenly thrust into the role of the nerd waiting around for Amber, the smoking hot cheerleader, to say yes to his prom invite. I hate to break it to you, Bill, but Amber was never going to the prom with you and Jimmy G was never signing an extension with the Patriots.
So did the Patriots at least maximize the asset when they did finally trade Garoppolo? A quick survey of the key players in this football drama suggests that they did not. It started with Schefter’s bizarre appearance on Kirk & Callahan where he alluded to the benefits of dealing with San Francisco by reminding us that they are out of conference and mentioning that they did did not fire Belichick, a not-so-subtle Cleveland Browns reference.
Maybe Schefter was still rattled by the trade news but the point about the Browns makes absolutely no sense. For starters, Schefter got his franchises wrong as it was technically the Ravens that fired Belichick since they were the team that originally moved from Cleveland. It’s also worth mentioning that the guy who actually fired Belichick, Art Modell, is dead so I’m thinking Bill has let that grudge go. Additionally, Belichick has done multiple trades with the Browns including trading them Jamie Collins a year ago. The out of conference mention, though, hints at a troubling theme that suggests Belichick did not subject Garoppolo to a bidding war and instead choose to just deal with the 49ers. This possibility was furthered by Belichick who made a point to mention that Garoppolo was going to a good situation in San Fran.
Why does that matter? It’s Belichick’s job to find the best deal, not set up Garoppolo for the future. Is it possible that Belichick actually dealt exclusively with the 49ers because he wanted to put Jimmy G in a good situation and because he has respect for Mike Shanahan, whose son Kyle coaches the Niners? If so that is not exactly living up to your fiduciary responsibilities as Patriots coach and de facto GM. Garoppolo’s not a dog you’re putting up for adoption and you need to find him a good home.
Before you dismiss the theory, Radio host Benjamin Allbright reported that the Cleveland coaches were incensed that the Browns were not in on the Garoppolo sweepstakes and he also reported that Browns VP Sashi Brown didn’t even know about the trade until over an hour after it was made. That’s stunning. Belichick never even called the Browns. It makes zero sense that Belichick would not call a team that is loaded with draft capital, desperate for a QB, and had interest 6 months ago in the very QB that you’re trading. If he was a lesser GM, it would almost be a fireable offense.
Cleveland isn’t the only team that might have driven up the price. How about the Arizona Cardinals? Here’s my Cardinals sales pitch: How would you guys like to rescue your 2017 season, have a franchise QB for the future to pair with RB David Johnson and cock-block a team in your own division. Are you telling me Arizona doesn’t offer at least a 1st round pick? Again, like in the offseason, it feels like Belichick blew it.
It would be one thing if the Niners had offered New England a haul and maybe paired it with an ultimatum that the Patriots had to take their deal or it was off the table. But that ain’t what happened. A top 35 pick is a solid return but certainly not worth eliminating all bidding. Consider that LT Duane Brown was traded for a package similar in value to Garoppolo’s. Since when does a left tackle have the same value as a potential franchise QB?
Then there are the reports that Cleveland had a deal at the deadline to acquire A.J. McCarron
from the Bengals for a 2nd and 3rd round pick, a package potentially more valuable than what New England got for Garoppolo. WTF?!? If you polled 32 NFL front offices over who they would prefer, Garoppolo or McCarron, unless McCarron’s wife is included in the deal, 32 out of 32 teams would choose Garoppolo. Of course the McCarron deal never was consummated because, in what might be the most perfect moment to exemplify an entire franchise’s pathetic existence, the Browns were so busy celebrating the deal they missed the trade deadline and the trade was voided.
(Quick side bar to react to the Browns blowing the McCarron deal: Bahahahahahaha, wow that’s dumb. What the hell is wrong with them? Imagine being a Cleveland Browns fan and reading that story. Nothing like finding out your team is literally run by buffoons. I’m not sure any NFL franchise has ever been lower than the Browns are right now. The league should make them change their team logo to Charlie Brown whiffing on yet another kick.)
Finally, there are the words of Niners GM, John Lynch, who told the media that when New England called him about a possible trade for Garoppolo the Patriots were emphatic that Lynch keep the negotiations 100% private. That doesn’t exactly sound like a team trying to spread the word and generate competing offers. Sounds more like somebody dealing exclusively with one team and, for some unexplained reason, wanting to keep it that way. If that is true, Belichick made a huge blunder. Belichick loves to say, “I’m always gonna do what’s best for the football team”, well somebody needs to explain to me why exclusively negotiating with the Niners was best for the football team.
Belichick is also getting criticized for the timing of this deal. Why now, as opposed to after the season which would provide New England with some insurance from a Brady injury? On this one, Belichick got it right. In order to trade Garoppolo after the season the Patriots would have had to slap him with the franchise tag. This would tie up over 20 million dollars in cap space and cripple New England early in free agency if a deal could not be completed quickly. Additionally, such a move would take the franchise tag out of the equation to use on any other Patriot players. After a half season of Gilmore would you be surprised if Belichick was having buyer’s remorse and wanted to hold onto any chips that might help the team keep Malcolm Butler?
It’s also not clear what the QB market would look like next spring. Several previously QB-deficient teams (Texans, Bears, Rams, etc.) seem to have found quarterbacks and the ones that remained (Niners, Browns, Cardinals, etc.) might have decided that someone like Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen are better and less expensive options than Garoppolo. It is unlikely they would have gotten more for Garoppolo after the season, and they might have gotten less.
Yes, trading Jimmy G now is a gamble, and one that could make Belichick look foolish, but Brady is a genetic freak who appears to be aging in reverse, so betting on his health isn’t exactly the riskiest play.
One final but significant nugget before we tie this all together. Ryan Burr of the Golf Channel and NBC Sports tweeted out this, “Brady camp 3 days ago felt privately TB could be traded by Bill after 17. This was a Kraft decision to make it clear Brady finishes as a Pat.” If true, that tweet is a whopper. Kraft is supposed to be hands off on the football stuff; if he intervened to resolve this Brady/Garoppolo situation that is a big F’n deal. But the part about Brady being traded after 2017 by Belichick should surprise nobody.
Belichick has always been a ruthless horse trader when it comes to personnel moves and has never let a silly thing like loyalty get in the way of a good deal. Furthermore, Belichick and Brady have a surprisingly icy relationship outside of football. You would be hard pressed to find a single picture of them interacting socially during the offseason. Brady once went so far as to say he has never eaten dinner with Bill Belichick. Eighteen years together and they haven’t so much as shared an order of Arby’s together!?! There is certainly a mountain of mutual respect between Belichick and Brady but not the bond you would have assumed after all those years in the trenches.
This brings us back to where we started and that simple question, what changed? What changed in the last six months that suddenly made Jimmy G expendable? Cobbling together all that we know, a clear theory emerges. It appears that Belichick was fully committed to Garoppolo. Knowing how important the quarterback position is, Belichick concluded that the Patriots had to make the difficult choice of moving on from the G.O.A.T. himself in order to guarantee that the team could keep Garoppolo as the future of the franchise.
But Belichick knew moving on from Brady was no small thing, and with his soon to be 40-year old QB coming off another MVP-caliber season, he decided to move forward on a short-term plan to keep both QBs. He also, most likely, broached the topic of trading Brady with Robert Kraft and quickly learned that this was a non-starter for Kraft. Belichick then, against all logic, shelved any idea of a Garoppolo trade and turned his energy towards trying to secure a contract extension for his backup QB. Remember that great line from the Shawshank Redemption, “Some birds aren’t meant to be caged, their feathers are just too bright”? After six months of haggling, it likely became clear to Belichick that Garoppolo had no more interest in being New England’s backup. Jimmy G wanted out of his cage.
Maybe Belichick made one more run at Kraft, imploring him to make the tough choice on Brady so they could secure their long-term future at the QB position; a bizarre priority for a coach that just became eligible for Social Security. After getting rebuked again by Kraft, Belichick decided to finally let go, and refocused on finding a taker for Garoppolo. Shortly thereafter, a deal was made and Jimmy G was history. His vast potential and dreamy looks were now property of the 49ers, undoubtedly increasing heart palpitations throughout the Bay area.
As for New England, they were left with an extra draft pick and a 40-year old starting quarterback. Under normal conditions that would not be an enviable position, but there is nothing normal about Tom Brady. He continues to kick father time’s ass up and down the field and is in the midst of yet another MVP-caliber season.
So, if Kraft did intervene to keep Brady, was it the right decision? Some will say only time can tell, but for me, the jury is in. Whether Brady falls off the proverbial cliff in five games or five years, Kraft made the right call. When a guy has given as much as Brady to your franchise, at some point, loyalty has to matter. Brady has been as selfless and hardworking an athlete as these parts have ever seen and you don’t just discard that, and five Super Bowl rings, because something new comes along. I’m sure Garoppolo will make a great starting quarterback, and yes, someday Brady will no longer be able to play like Brady, but until that day comes, you ride that old horse as far as he can take you; which, most years, is to the top of the NFL.