Believe it or not, the Patriots begin training camp a week from today. Rookies report tomorrow! With that in mind, here are five things I think will happen this season:
The Patriots will make the playoffs
The AFC is loaded. There will be at least one, and perhaps two, really good teams that miss the playoffs. The Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Jaguars are locks from my view. You can probably throw the Jets in that group, too. That leaves two more spots. New England will have to battle with Miami, Baltimore, Cleveland, Las Vegas, the LA Chargers, and perhaps even Denver for one of two spots.
The Patriots offense was a mess in 2022 and their usually solid special teams cost them multiple games (Vikings, Week 18 Bills) and was generally poor all season, aside from some electric return work from Marcus Jones. That won’t be the case in 2022. The special teams, with investments in free agency, the draft, and Joe Judge taking a larger role, will be much improved. Ditto for their offense. A revamped offensive attack with Bill O’Brien will lead to fewer turnovers and an uptick from their dismal 42.2% red zone conversion percentage from a year ago. Miami has uncertainty surrounding their offensive line and health of their quarterback. The Broncos, Browns, Raiders and Chargers all have major questions. My feeling is the Patriots secure one of those final two playoff spots with either Baltimore or Las Vegas grabbing the other. New England isn’t on the level of the AFC powerhouses, but they are a playoff team.
They will have a top 7 defense
How did the Patriots manage to win eight games last season despite their offense and special teams holding them back? The answer is twofold: they stacked up wins against bad teams and their defense carried them. While the offense and special teams will improve this season, the defense will still be the strength of the team. There is no doubt that Devin McCourty will be missed, but Kyle Dugger is an emerging star and the Patriots found a year one starter at corner in the first round of the draft in Christian Gonzalez. Matthew Judon is a star and Christian Barmore should make a year three jump if he can stay healthy. If he can’t, the Patriots front is still solid.
The Patriots were eighth in yards allowed per game in 2022. They were third in sacks, second in takeaways and 11th in points per game. New England was also third in points allowed per drive and number one in weighted DVOA. They were, however, 21st in red zone defense and 21st in 3rd Down conversion percentage. I expect the unit to perform at a similarly strong level, with a hope of improved red zone and third down defense. Part of this is an improved offense, which will lighten the load on a defense that was on the field the fifth most in the NFL in 2022, for an average of 31:24 per game. Another part is the infusion of young talent in Gonzalez, Marte Mapu and Keion White. With a gauntlet of great offenses early in the season, we’ll know our answer on how good this unit is quickly.
Mac Jones will throw for over 4,000 yards
Last season nine quarterbacks threw for at least 4,000 yards. Mac Jones was far away from them, passing for only 2,997. In his rookie campaign, Jones threw for 3,801 yards. So why the jump to 4,000 in 2023? First of all, I’m betting on health. Jones only played in 14 games in 2022 and one of those 14 was brief stint in the bizarre Monday night loss to the Bears. A full 17 games will obviously help Jones improve his total from last season. Much more helpful, though, is the arrival of Bill O’Brien. It cannot be understated how much a strong offensive coordinator will help Jones and the New England offense. The last time O’Brien was in charge, the Patriots were second in yards per game and third in points per game. That unit had Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker. This unit isn’t close to that top tier talent, but, they do have solid pieces in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Gesicki, Rhamondre Stevenson and DaVante Parker. I’m not expecting this offense to be elite or even great, but they should be a top 15 unit and Jones will take advantage with at least 4,000 yards passing.
Mike Gesicki will catch 45+ passes and at least six touchdowns
Gesicki had a quiet 2022 season, but he had steadily improved his production from 2019-2021. In 2022, Gesicki scored six touchdowns, including playoffs. All six came in the red zone, with five of them coming inside the 10-yard line. Gesicki will be a major part of the Patriots improving their woeful red zone offense, which was last in the NFL in 2022. New England will employ a heavy dose of 12 personnel with Gesicki playing the second tight end role, but he’ll also spend time in the slot, furthering his passing game opportunities.
Kyle Dugger will be an All-Pro
Since being drafted in the second round in 2020, Dugger has had an immediate impact on the Patriots’ defense. He is often the most dynamic athlete on the field and in 2022 that athleticism and strong play began to translate into stats. In 15 games, Dugger had three interceptions, two touchdowns, one fumble forced, one sack and five tackles for loss. It can be tough to judge the impact of safeties, especially those that play deep in coverage, but not Dugger. He often jumps off the screen when watching him. With improved stats and a few game changing plays, he’ll find himself on the All-Pro team.