Fantasy Football: Thumbs Up, Thumbs Down on NFL Free Agency

Several high profile players switched uniforms in free agency and through trades. Here are my thumbs up for players who I think will produce in their new home and a thumbs down for players who I don’t think will produce in their new home.

Thumbs Up 👍

Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings: Cousins signing with the Vikings makes him a top five fantasy quarterback in 2018. He has a legit running game behind him with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray and he has plenty of targets that can get open in Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell and Kyle Rudolph. Minnesota was the ideal landing spot for Cousins from a fantasy standpoint.

Allen Robinson, WR, Bears: Robinson will be looking to bounce back after missing the 2017 season with a torn ACL. Robinson hasn’t been able to replicate his 2015 season when he caught 80 passes for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, if he can catch 70 passes for 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns, he would be a top 10 fantasy wide receiver again. With Mitchell Trubisky, it’s possible. Assuming Trubisky takes the next step in his development.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Packers: Graham scored 10 touchdowns last season and appears to be back on track from a fantasy standpoint. If healthy, Graham can be highly productive.

It amazes me how people are acting as if he will finally reach his “full potential” now that he is playing with Aaron Rodgers. Somehow they forget that he’s played with Drew Brees and Russell Wilson in his career. If Graham stays healthy, he’s a top three fantasy right end.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, 49ers: I am buying on McKinnon in San Francisco. While I think the Niners overpaid for McKinnon, I think he will put up big numbers in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. I wouldn’t overdraft McKinnon in standard scoring leagues but in a PPR league, I can see McKinnon going in the 4th or 5th round. He will have a similar role to the one Devonta Freeman had in Atlanta.

Alex Smith, QB, Redskins: Smith was a top five fantasy quarterback in 2017. While I don’t think he will replicate last season’s numbers, I do think Smith will have the potential to be a top 10 quarterback statistically in Jay Gruden’s offense. A healthy Jordan Reed will go a long way in enhancing Smith’s value.

Thumbs Down 👎

Carlos Hyde, RB, Browns: I think Hyde’s value will take a hit in Cleveland. He was the feature back in San Francisco, even on passing downs. Now he will concede touches to Duke Johnson and possibly Saquon Barkley if the Browns were to draft him.

Paul Richardson, WR, Redskins: Richardson is a one trick pony. It’s all vertical routes or nothing with him. Unless he proves he can run a full route tree and do more underneath as a receiver, I don’t buy him as a viable fantasy option.

Jordy Nelson, WR, Raiders: Nelson’s numbers suffered last season mostly because of the injury to Aaron Rodgers but also because Nelson is slowing down. Injuries and age have caught up to him. Nelson will struggle to approach his career averages of 7 touchdown catches and 872 yards per season.

Taylor Gabriel, WR, Bears: The Bears gave the career third receiver $28 million dollars. That’s ridiculous. Gabriel is a bye week filler at the most and that’s a stretch. Just like Allen Robinson, so much of Gabriel’s success will hinge on Mitchell Trubisky’s development.

Michael Crabtree, WR, Ravens: Crabtree had a hard time separating in a system that was catered to his skill set in Oakland. He will struggle even more in an offense that requires receivers to separate at the line and get vertical. Crabtree can’t do that anymore. Factor in an inconsistent Joe Flacco and Crabtree has no fantasy value moving forward.