By John Sarianides
The Patriots have 14 unrestricted free agents they have to make decisions on this off-season.
With $71 million dollars worth of cap space available, conventional wisdom would suggest the Patriots are going to re-sign most if not all of these pending free agents. Luckily, there is nothing conventional about Bill Belichick’s approach to free agency.
I don’t think the Patriots will retain all of their unrestricted free agents. Here is who I think stays and who goes.
Dont’a Hightower, ILB: The Patriots traded Chandler Jones and Jaime Collins because they valued Hightower more. Now they have to prove just how much they value him by paying him.
Hightower made $1.9 million last season. He is in line to quadruple his salary in his next contract.
If the Patriots want to keep Hightower, they are going to have to open up the wallet. It is probably going to take a 5 year, $60 million dollar contract with $25 million guaranteed to get it done.
I think the Patriots will be somewhere around there and they’ll find a way to get it done.
Martellus Bennett, TE: Bennett could probably make more money in the open market than he could in New England. It comes down to two things for him. One: Does he want to start again. Two: Does he value winning. If he values starting, he could probably get a 3 year, $21 million dollar contract in the open market. If he does not, he can come back to New England for 3 years at $15-18 million dollars. It’s his call. I think he stays. New England is a great fit for him and his family.
Logan Ryan, CB: Given the amount of cap space they have, the Patriots should be able to keep Ryan. It will come down to two things. One: Is Cyrus Jones ready to start. Two: How much does Belichick really think Ryan is worth.
Ryan is in line to get a significant pay raise. It is going to come down years in this case. Do the Patriots give Ryan a similar deal to the one the Chargers gave Casey Hayward last year (3 years, $15 million) or do they go long term and less money per year. It’ll be interesting to see what they do.
I think the Patriots will get a deal done with Malcolm Butler and let Ryan walk. Ryan can get $4-5 million a year in the open market and he’ll take it.
LeGarrette Blount, RB: I think the Patriots have gotten about as much as they can get out of Blount. While I think Belichick likes and respects Blount, I don’t think he’s willing to pay him $2 million plus per year on a new year deal.
After scoring 18 touchdowns last season, Blount will draw interest in the open market. That is why I think he will pack his bags and his two rings and follow the money trail.
Jabaal Shread, DE: At age 27, this could Shread’s last chance at a pay day. He made $5.5 million in 2016. He can make more in the open market but it won’t be from the Patriots. He just hasn’t produced enough to get a pay day here. I think he’s gone.
Sebastian Vollmer, OT: It’s been a great run for Sea Bass here in New England but it’s over. The Patriots settled on Marcus Cannon as their right tackle moving forward when they inked him to a $32 million dollar extension. I would be shocked if Vollmer re-signed here as a back up. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Vollmer retired either.
Barkevious Mingo, OLB: I doubt Mingo returns to the Patriots. He never really develop a role on the team. He played mostly special teams and never produced as a situational pass rusher. Mingo is talented enough to get one more big deal in his career but it won’t be from the Patriots. I have a feeling that someone will over pay him on the basis of potential.
Michael Floyd, WR: I think the Patriots would be interested in bringing Floyd back despite the fact that he is facing the possibility of a lengthy suspension.
Floyd did everything that was asked of him when he got here and he was a model citizen. Given his potential suspension, he won’t have much of a market so I can see the Patriots taking a flyer on him on a one year deal.
Chris Long, DE: I have mixed feeling on Long. On the one hand, I would love to see him back because he was a defensive leader and an integral part of the locker room. On the other, he didn’t produce enough and isn’t even worth the $2.3 million dollars he made last season. Belichick is a fan of Long’s so I can see him back on a one year deal. I could also see him retiring now that he’s won a championship.
Alan Branch, DT: Branch must be re-signed. He is a key cog in the middle for the Patriots in their base defense and is one of the best run defenders in the league.
The Patriots like having wide bodied defensive tackles that can play in either a 30 or 40 front. Branch provides that scheme flexibility. I would be surprised if he wasn’t back.
Duron Harmon, SS: Harmon has been a productive player for the Patriots, especially the last three seasons. I can’t see Belichick letting him walk. Harmon will require a raise but I don’t think he will cost so much that the Patriots can’t bring him back.
Harmon will garner some interest in the open market but I think the Patriots will be able to match any offer that Harmon gets.
Brandon Bolden, RB: Bolden is a valuable special teamer and a Belichick favorite. I don’t see Bolden going anywhere because he is affordable and he won’t have much of a market. Bolden will be back next season and beyond.
James Devlin, FB: Devlin is a valuable special teamer and situational fullback. He proved to be extremely valuable during this latest playoff run. Devlin won’t have much of a market so there is no reason he won’t be back next season.
Greg Scruggs, DE: Scruggs never really got on the field this season so there a chance the Patriots are going to allow him to move on as a free agent.