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Thanks to Next Gen stats, we look at some of the more intriguing analytical numbers that could determine the outcome of this match up.
Super Bowl LX will be a test of wills as both teams do a good job of taking away what the other does best.
Here are of the seasonal and playoff stats that caught my attention. I give you my thoughts on each stat.
All stats courtesy of the NFL and NEXTGEN Stats
Offense
Stat: Seahawks Rashid Shaheed has scored 14 career touchdowns of at least 40 yards, which are the most by any player since he entered the NFL in 2022.
Thoughts: He’s a big play waiting to happen. Especially in plus territory. Patriots cannot fall asleep at the wheel.
Stat: Drake Maye has been sacked 15 times in the 2025 playoffs, the 2nd-most sacks taken by any player in a single postseason in the Super Bowl Era.
Thoughts: The two rookies have been up and down on the left side. Will Campbell and Jared Wilson need to be good if the Patriots are going to win.
Stat: Sam Darnold is 0-4 in his career vs the Patriots with 1 pass touchdown, 9 interceptions, and a 41.2 passer rating.
Thoughts: Hopefully he still sees ghosts and the losing continues.
Stat: Starting quarterbacks under the age of 24
Drake Maye is 23 years old – are 0-6 against Mike Macdonald defenses since
2023, including the playoffs.
Thoughts: MacDonald is an elite scheme coach and knows how to confuse and cloud the reads for young quarterbacks.
Stat: Jaxon Smith-Njigba accounted for 44.1 percent of the Seahawks receiving yards in 2025. That is the 2nd-highest percent of a team’s receiving yards in the regular season by a player to play in the Super Bowl that season. The only higher was Paul Warfield (44.3) in 1971 for the Dolphins.
Thoughts: He is the dude. Plain and simple. The Patriots have to force someone else to beat them.
Stat: Sam Darnold has a 122.4 passer rating in the playoffs this season, which is 7th highest by any quarterback prior to reaching the Super Bowl all-time.
Thoughts: He is in a zone. Patriots need to get pressure on him early.
Stat: Sam Darnold has completed 20 of 25 play-action passes for 154 yards and nine touchdowns inside the red zone this season, including the playoffs (80.0% completion percentage).
Thoughts: See last thought.
Stat: Drake Maye completed 48.2% of his passes into tight windows (less than one yard of separation) this season, the highest in the NFL by 5.3% and 17.1% higher than the league average (31.1%).
Thoughts: Give him time and he will have success against the Seahawks vaunted Cover 6.
Stat: The Patriots used jumbo personnel (6+ offensive lineman) on 32.8% of their plays against the Broncos, their highest in any game this season.
They particularly leaned into heavy sets when the snow started to come down, doing so on 42.1% of snaps in the second half. The 21 plays they recorded out of jumbo were two more than the 19 they used across the Wild Card and Divisional rounds combined, but they averaged just 3.8 yards when doing so.
Thoughts: We will see a heavy dose of 22 Rhino if the Patriots are playing with the lead in the fourth quarter.
Stat: Drake Maye has rushed for at least 40 yards seven times this season, including against the Chargers and the Broncos in the postseason.
Since Week 15, Maye has averaged 6.6 carries and 38.9 rushing yards per game. In 2025, the Seahawks allowed 5.3 rushing yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks, the 4th most in the NFL.
Thoughts: Maye’s legs will be the difference in this game offensively for the Patriots. Seattle has struggled against scrambling quarterbacks.
Defense
Stat: The Seahawks’ defense blitzed on 37.4% of dropbacks faced on third-and-long this season (seven or more yards to go), the eighth-highest rate in the NFL.
In third-down situations with six or fewer yards to go, they recorded just an 18.3% blitz rate, the third-lowest rate in the NFL, ahead of only the Cowboys (15.5%) and Cardinals (18.1%). Overall, they surrendered the fourth-fewest yards per attempt (5.4) and allowed their opponents to convert a first down on a league-low 22.2% of dropbacks when blitzing on third down, the lowest rate allowed by a defense in a season since the 2023 Browns (17.7%). They were less effective when sending four or fewer pass rushers in those situations, as they allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt (6.3) and allowed the 13th-lowest conversion rate (33.3%). Through two postseason games, they have blitzed just two times on 15 third-down dropbacks faced (13.3%), while allowing four conversions overall (26.7%).
Thoughts: Need to stay ahead of the chains especially on first down. Four plus yards a carry is a must.
Stat: The Seahawks’ offense averaged 18.2 yards of formation width across 170 plays inside the red zone this season, the tightest average formation width in the red area by any offense in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
In addition to recording a league-high 57.1% called run play rate on snaps inside the red zone, they totaled 64 designed runs as a team out of condensed formations in those situations, the 2nd-most in the NFL, trailing only the 49ers (79). They averaged 2.4 yards per carry on those attempts, a mark on par with the league average (2.5). The Patriots’ defense stuffed opposing ball-carriers for a loss or no gain at the 2nd-lowest rate (14.3%) while allowing the 2nd-most yards before contact per carry (1.5) on designed runs out of condensed formations inside the red zone this season.
Thoughts: Compressed formations will be a big key in this game. How the Patriots adjust and handle them by alignment will be key.
Stat: DeMarcus Lawrence has recorded one sack in three of his last four games, and his eight sacks are tied for the most on the Seahawks with Leonard Williams.
Lawrence has aligned on the left edge on 321 snaps, or 48.0% of the time according to Next Gen. Patriots left tackle Will Campbell has allowed 12.5 sacks in 2025 (including the postseason), the third most among left tackles this season.
Thoughts: The match up to watch, especially early on. Can Big Willy hold up?
Stat: Nick Emmanwori’s 19 pressures rank first among all cornerbacks and slot cornerbacks in the NFL this season (including postseason).
Emmanwori has recorded 2.5 sacks in 2025, with solo sacks against both the Falcons and Colts. His production has been a key part of the Seahawks defensive backs’ 6.5 total sacks, nearly double the league average for defensive back units (3.5).
Thoughts: If he is fully healthy, the rookie hybrid corner, safety will be a problem. He is a big part of what MacDonald does on the back end coverage wise.
Stat: The Seahawks’ defense faced just a single sneak attempt on third and fourth down this season (first down allowed), the fewest in the NFL.
They faced an additional sneak attempt on a third-and-one early in the fourth quarter during their Divisional Round win over the 49ers this postseason, which resulted in a first down. The Patriots’ offense attempted eight sneaks on third and fourth down this season, tied with the Bengals and Texans for the 13th-most in the NFL. Drake Maye handled each of those attempts but managed to convert just five of them into first downs. Maye added an additional sneak attempt on fourth-and-one during the Patriots’ AFC Championship win over the Broncos this postseason, which resulted in a first down.
Thoughts: Speaks to how good this defense has been all season.
Stat: The Patriots’ defense allowed a league-low 40 red zone drives and permitted opponents to reach the red zone on just 23.4% of their drives this season, the lowest rate in the NFL.
While they rarely allowed their opponent to come close to reaching the goal line, they allowed a 48.3% success rate on plays faced inside the red zone, the second-highest rate in the NFL and the highest rate by a team to make the postseason since the 2022 Vikings (49.3%). Each of the three other teams that competed in the Conference Championships ranked top eight in the NFL in this regard, including the Broncos (31.3%) and Rams (33.3%), who posted the lowest and second-lowest marks, respectively. The Seahawks’ offense reached the red zone on 31.9% of their drives this season, a mark slightly above the NFL average (30.6%). However, they managed to score 12 touchdowns on plays of 20 or more yards, tied with three other teams for the 8th-most in the NFL.
Thoughts: The underlying numbers illustrate just how good this defense has been in the playoffs.
Stat: The Patriots’ defense forced a tight window in coverage on a league-high 33.3% of their passes faced inside the red zone this season (less than one yard of separation).
The 7.0-percentage point gap between their mark and the next closest defense, the Lions (26.3%), was nearly the same as the gap between the Lions and the 16th-ranked Cowboys (19.1%). While they often forced difficult throws, they allowed 42.1% of those passes to be completed (8 of 19), a mark nearly 15-percentage points higher than the league average rate of 28.9%. Additionally, seven of their eight completions allowed on tight-window throws resulted in touchdowns, the most in the NFL.
Thoughts: Elite in coverage. They may bend but they do not break.
Stat: The Patriots defense was stout when generating pressure against the Broncos, allowing just one of 10 passes to be completed for four yards.
They also recorded three sacks, one fumble recovery, and an interception when creating pressure. Defensive tackle Milton Williams generated three quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds) in the contest, tied for the second-most in a game in his career.
Thoughts: Dominate performance. Plain and simple. Sure, it helped that Bo Nix was out but the defense has balled out this post season, holding opponents to 8.7 points per game.
Stat: Carlton Davis III was targeted on six of 29 man-coverage snaps inside the red zone this season, allowing each to be caught for 49 yards and four touchdowns (20.7% target rate).
Across 20 zone-coverage snaps inside the twenty, he was targeted just once, allowing a 10-yard reception (5.0% target rate). His seven total red-zone targets faced without forcing an incompletion were tied with Falcons safety Xavier Watts for the most in the NFL. Through three postseason games, Davis has logged 13 coverage snaps in the red area and has yet to be targeted.
Thoughts: Fade to Shaheed? If the Patriots try this match up, it could be a long afternoon for Davis unless they have a two high safety over the top.
Stat: The Seahawks blitzed on just 18.4% of dropbacks in the NFC Championship, their lowest in any of the three meetings against the Rams.
They recorded a season-high 42.9% blitz rate in their Week 11 loss against the Rams, and then a 27.5% rate in the Week 16 win. Seattle generated a 29.0% pressure rate when not blitzing in the NFC Championship, their fifth-lowest this season. Matthew Stafford threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns when not blitzed in the Conference Championship, the third-most yards and tied for most touchdowns allowed by the Seahawks defense this season.
Thoughts: I would expect that number to be higher in this game. No chance they rush only four against the Patriots. The Rams torched Seattle in the deep passing game.
Stat: The Seahawks defense utilized man coverage on 39.5% of dropbacks in the NFC Championship against the Rams, their highest in any game this season.
They particularly leaned into man schemes in the first half, doing so on 58.8% of dropbacks. Entering the game, the Seahawks had not used man coverage on over 50% of dropbacks in any first half this season, and over 30% just three times. They did allow 8.7 yards per play when in man coverage in the Conference Championship however, their most in a game this season.
Thoughts: No chance they play this much man against the Patriots. I would play a lot Cover 6, Cover 4, 2 Man and maybe some Cover 5 on long down situations if I am bringing the extra guy.
Stat: The Seahawks allowed 226 deep passing yards in their NFC Championship win over the Rams, the most allowed by any Seattle defense and the most in any playoff game leaguewide in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
The seven deep completions they allowed were also both the most by a Seattle defense and the most in any playoff game leaguewide over the same timeframe.
Thoughts: See previous thought. Again, no chance they play a ton of man in this game.