
SANTA CLARA- It is the Patriots and Seahawks in Super Bowl LX. A fantastic match-up between arguably the two best teams in the NFL this season.
From a match up standpoint, both of these teams create mismatches on both sides of the ball. They matchups well against each other so this game will come down to which unit rises above the matchup and makes a difference.
Here are five matchups that could impact this game including a bonus matchups.
Christian Gonzalez vs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The match up of all match ups. I think the Patriots will play the match up game with Gonzalez on JSN in man coverage but I also don’t think they will do it the entire game. I think it will be more situational and based on down and distance. I do think the bulk of this match up will be in plus territory and the red zone but don’t be surprised if the Patriots play more zone in this game. Bottom line. They need to limit JSN’s effectiveness.
Will Campbell vs. Demarcus Lawrence: Campbell has struggled in these playoffs but you can make the argument that this is Campbell’s easiest individual match up after going up against Will Anderson and Nick Bonitto.
Campbell allowed five pressures on 30 pass blocks in the AFC Championship (16.7%) and has now allowed four or more pressures in every single Patriots game this postseason.
He has been tasked with difficult matchups, going against both Bonnito (four pressures allowed) and Anderson (three pressures allowed, two sacks) 14 times each. Bonnito generated the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL during the regular season (20.2%, min. 250 pass rushes) while Anderson ranked third-highest (19.5%).
Campbell more than held his own against Bonitto and Anderson and he will need to do the same in this game. It won’t be easy but Campbell will play with confidence. He has to. The Patriots will need a big game from him.
Jared Wilson vs. Leonard Williams: Wilson will have his work cut out for him whether it is Leonard Williams or Byron Murphy lining up over him. Williams length and lateral quickness are impressive for a player his size. Wilson has to hold up especially when engaged. He cannot get bullied. If he loses his one on one match up and the Patriots have to start adjusting protection to his side, they are in trouble.
Milton Williams vs. Grey Zabel: Zabel has been very good but Williams presents problems with his get off and lateral quickness. The Patriots are going to focus on the Seahawks core up front and attack those three with stunts and line movements. The two guards especially will be the focal point as the Patriots try to force Sam Darnold to vacate the pocket.
Carlton Davis vs. Rashid Shaheed: Believe it or not, Shaheed is not as big a part of the Seahawks offense as you think. He has been targeted on just 13.8% of his routes since the Seahawks acquired him ahead of Week 10 (including playoffs), down from his 22.5% target rate with the Saints in Weeks 1-9.
Shaheed has been used as a field stretcher in the Seahawks offense, averaging 15.1 yards of route depth while running vertical routes at a 50.9% rate, both higher than his 11.6 average route depth and 35.5% vertical route rate in New Orleans. He has averaged 15.16 mph on his routes with Seattle, up from 14.12 mph with the Saints and what would be the fourth-fastest in the NFL across the regular season (min. 250 routes). Bottom line, do not give him anything vertical, especially in plus territory and you will be fine. Patriots cannot fall asleep at the wheel against him.
Bonus Match-Ups: Patriots safeties vs. Seahawks Tight Ends: Seattle uses a fair amount of 12 personnel. Tight ends A.J Barner and Eric Saubert create match up problems for opposing defenses. Both Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson will have their hands full, especially when they throw play- action and get them out on crossing routes. This season, Darnold completed 61 of 82 passes for 1,104 yards and six touchdowns out of 12 personnel when faced with base defense this season, translating to a league-high 13.5 yards per attempt, nearly twice as many as the NFL average (7.5).
When passing out of 12 personnel and faced with five or more defensive backs, Darnold completed 25 of 37 attempts for 215 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions, translating to an average of 5.8 yards per attempt, over one full yard fewer than the NFL average (6.9).
Stefon Diggs vs. Devon Witherspoon: Witherspoon is as physical as they come for a cornerback. He will be handsy with Diggs and try to re-route him. Diggs can get open against him so he will have to depend on his elite route running skills.