Vallee’s View: Patriots Stumble into the AFC Championship Game

Feature image courtesy of Jim Rogash/ Getty Images
By Michael Vallee
-Send In the Clowns:  It was supposed to be easy.  A laugher.  A joke.  Another gift from the AFC South.  The NFL equivalent of the proverbial walk in the park.  A mere tuneup before the real playoffs begin next Sunday.  In a week when most of the talk centered around such questions as, “How much will New England win by?” and “Will they cover the (obnoxiously high) point spread?”, there was virtually nobody that was even entertaining the possibility of a Houston win.  Even the network pregame chimps, who have a vested interest in selling the idea that the game might be competitive, couldn’t even cobble together a plausible scenario where the Houston Texans could walk out of Gillette with a victory.  This was cupcake central and the Patriots could name their score.  
 
Or so we all thought.
 
Then two strange things happened, the Texans came to play and the Patriots gave arguably their worst performance of the year.  The Texans half of the equation should not have been all that shocking.  After listening to everyone from Jim Rome to Joe Blow declare how much of a laughingstock they were I would imagine that by game time Houston was spitting fire.  Their was so much disrespect echoing throughout the sports media and internet you could have wallpapered the Texans locker room with bulletin board material.  My old college coach used to always remind us, “Remember, the other guys are on scholarship, too”, which translated to NFL terms the quote would read, “The other guys have contracts, too.”  Despite the almost universal ridicule heaped on Houston they are still a team of actual NFL players that have managed to post a winning record each of the last three years and boast a defense peppered with talent.  Therefore maybe it should not have been so surprising that they showed up at Gillette Saturday with a sense of purpose looking for a fight.  They believed they were going to win this football game, or at the very least, make New England earn it.  There would be no freebies handed out in Foxboro.
 
The tone was set on defense, where the Texans both harassed and hammered patriots QB Tom Brady the entire first half.  Old friend Romeo Crennel repeatedly dialed up creative pass rush combos that often lined up pass rushing beasts Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus over center, to be unleashed on the Patriots hapless interior O-Line.  Time and again center Dave Andrews and guard Joe Thuney looked like they were doing their best Marcus Cannon impression circa 2015, continuously getting overwhelmed by the Texans superior athleticism.  The result was Brady and the Patriots offense looking, at best, uncomfortable, and at worst, completely flustered.  Combined with an underrated secondary New England’s high-powered offense was kept in check, scoring just 10 first half points.
 
Far stranger was the Patriots side of the equation.  While it could be understood that Houston would play with a sense of urgency, it was downright baffling how bad New England looked.  After all, this is not a team known for taking inferior opponents lightly, a byproduct of a coach steeped in paranoia, a paranoia that manifests itself in team meetings where Belichick transforms teams like the Houston Texans into the 70s Steelers.  New England is 5-0 in their last five divisional playoff games, winning by an average margin of 16.2 points.  And this Texans team was supposed to be the weakest of the lot.  
 
It’s hard to say why this game was different.  Maybe it was rust, brought on by a bye week and subpar second half competition. Maybe the Patriots just had one of those days where, for whatever reason, you just aren’t at your best.  Or maybe Belichick simply had trouble selling his team on the notion that they could lose to a team quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler.  Regardless of the cause, New England looked flat and unfocused, particularly on offense, where their precision passing attack sputtered all game, rarely finding any consistency or rhythm and often relying on a bizarre series of fluttering up-for-grabs “prayers” to advance the ball.  
 
But it was the Patriots’ mistakes that most defined their performance on Saturday.
 
After jumping out to a relatively easy 7-0 lead courtesy of a nifty 13-yard touchdown by Dion Lewis, New England consistently shot themselves in the foot, often following something good with something uncharacteristically bad.  Here’s the ledger:
 
  -Good:  Patriots score to take 7-0 lead, then stop Houston three-and-out
    Bad:  Defensive stop is nullified by boneheaded 15-yard penalty by Eric Rowe on 3rd down, prolonging Houston’s drive which eventually resulted in a field goal
 
  -Good:  Patriots score on a 98-yard kickoff return by Dion Lewis, then stop Houston three-and-out
    Bad:  Brady throws an interception on the next play, deep in New England territory
 
  -Good:  The Patriots hold Houston to a field goal following the interception
    Bad:  Dion Lewis fumbles the ensuing kickoff and the Texans score two plays later
 
  -Good:  Brady hits Hogan for a 45-yard gain
    Bad:  The Patriots drive stalls with Brady taking a sack on 3rd down that takes them out of field goal range
 
  -Good:  Patriots force another Houston three-and-out and Brady connects with Julian Edelman for a 48-yard gain on the next drive
    Bad:  The offense has to settle for a field goal after it fails to score on first-and-goal from the three-yard line.               
 
And that was just in the first half.  A month’s worth of mistakes crammed into 30 minutes of football.  
 
The second half saw New England inevitably pull away, turning a 17-13 halftime lead into a comfortable 34-16 win, where the only real drama revolved around our friends in Vegas.  
 
Unfortunately it wasn’t so much Patriot brilliance as Houston incompetence that led to the second half turnaround.  The Texans reverted back to their mediocre roots in the final two quarters repeatedly letting opportunity slip through their fingers.  The tone was set early when Houston cornerback A.J. Bouye, deep in Patriots territory, let a potential interception bounce off his hands in the first minute of the second half.  No drop, however, would be bigger than that of Texans rookie WR Will Fuller.  Late in the third quarter, with his team trailing 24-13, Fuller let a perfectly thrown Osweiler pass (might never type those words ever again) go right through his hands in the end zone, dropping what would have been a 45-yard touchdown and a chance to cut the lead to 4 and possibly ignite his team.  
 
While the near miss was emblematic of a Texans evening where they could never seem to lock down that one play that might have turned the tide, it was not emblematic of Brock Osweiler’s night, as that perfect pass was nothing more than an aberration.  Osweiler was awful in this game.  He missed countless open receivers, made poor reads, held the ball too long and in the second half alone tossed three interceptions.  All night long his weak arm and slow mechanics delivered balls with all the speed and accuracy of a Tim Wakefield knuckleball.  Defense or no defense the Texans simply had no chance with this 18 million dollar a year bust under center.  
 
All in all this was not an impressive night for the Patriots and you don’t have to be Captain Obvious to state the Patriots will not be advancing to the Super Bowl if they play anything like that against Pittsburgh.  But was there a silver lining?  New England played an abysmal first half and still led 17-13.  They played their worst game in months and not only won but covered the gargantuan point spread.  But the real silver lining might come in film sessions and practice this week.  Instead of spending the week trying to check his team’s ego and talk them down from an easy win, Belichick, armed with 60 minutes of ugly game tape, now has more than enough ammunition to fine tune his team by hammering them from now until kickoff Sunday.  I suspect after Saturday night’s performance he will have their full attention; if not, it’s going to be a long AFC Championship.
-Grading on a Curve:  Despite a good effort holding the Texans to under 300 yards, sacking Osweiler three times and generating three turnovers the Patriots defense is in the same place they were a week ago: highly ranked but still plagued by questions about their true value because of the competition they’ve faced.  The Patriots lost to the last elite QB they faced (Russell Wilson) and have spent the last two months beating up on the offensive dregs of the NFL.  Sunday was simply an extension of that – an extreme extension given how inept Osweiler is – and therein lies the rub.  The Patriots can shut down as many bad QBs as they want but until they contain an elite quarterback the perception of them will not change.  Additionally, there has to be some concern that Pittsburgh, and their vast array of high-end offensive weapons, will be a shock to the system for New England’s D after facing Osweiler and the Texans offense, which is as bad a tuneup game as you could possibly have to prepare for Antonio Brown, Le’veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger.
 
-NFL Roadkill:  There also has to be some level of concern overall about the competition the Patriots have faced in 2016.  New England finished the regular season with the weakest schedule in the NFL, and statistically one of the worst in years, an issue only compounded by playing Houston in their first playoff game.
-Fashion Statement:  Did you happen to see Patriots DT Malcolm Brown throw Brock Osweiler to the ground for a 4th quarter sack and in the process rip his fanny pack from his waist and slam it into the Gillette turf?  That is pretty much what I want to do to any guy I see wearing a fanny pack.
 
-This Sunday’s AFC Championship between New England and Pittsburgh will be the 47th Championship game since the merger in 1970.  Either the Patriots or the Steelers have participated in 27 of those games.
 
-Triple Threat:  Dion Lewis became the first player in NFL playoff history to score a rushing, receiving and kick return touchdown.  He also fumbled twice which, I am suspecting, is the thing Belichick is emphasizing most as they prepare for Pittsburgh.
 
-There was a stretch in Saturday night’s game where Brady ran just one play in 42 minutes.  During that same stretch Osweiler and the Texans ran 23 plays.
-Stupid is as Stupid Does:  OK let’s get this over with.  This is yet another in a long line of examples as to why Phil Simms sucks at his job.  In response to Osweiler throwing a pass that badly missed Lamar Miller Simms said, “I think Osweiler just threw that last one away, not that he missed Miller, he was open but I think he felt pressure behind him and got rid of the football to try to get away from the negative play.”  So let me get this straight, Osweiler saw an open Lamar Miller, had enough time to throw the ball in his direction but intentionally threw a bad pass to avoid getting sacked???  Let’s put this statement through the Simms-to-english translation app to find out what he was really trying to say:  “Osweiler clearly threw a bad pass that missed a wide open receiver but because I am such a gutless butt-kissing stooge who is terrified to say anything negative about anybody I have concocted a ridiculous nonsensical explanation as to why he threw this errant pass.”
 
-Social media was predictably active during Divisional weekend:
 
  1. Playoff Envy:  Seahawks All-Pro safety Earl Thomas tweeted this before New England’s game against Houston:  “Tom Brady has the easiest route….put his ass in our division and see what he does!!!”  It’s not an entirely inaccurate statement but how is this year different from many other years?  The Patriots often earn a bye, face a first round cupcake and then have a tough opponent in the AFC Title game.  And I’m not sure Thomas should be boasting about the toughness of the AFC West this year considering that every team he faced in his decision had a losing record.  Thomas is currently nursing a broken leg and maybe should spend less time on Twitter and more time following this classic advice from WR Steve Smith.
  2. Krazee-Eyez Killa:  During the game, presumably following a sack of Brady, Ray Lewis tweeted this, “It’s Called Football Brady”, most likely in response to Brady lobbying the officials for a late-hit penalty.  I try not to make it a practice to agree with babbling incoherent buffoons but Lewis actually might have a point here.  Brady has a lot of good habits (exercise, diet, film study, etc.) that have served him well but his incessant whining to the refs is not one of them.  It’s a bad look for Brady and most likely does nothing to get him more calls.  That said Brady should have responded to Lewis on Twitter with this, “It’s Called Murder Ray”.
  3. What You See Here, What You Say Here, When you Leave Here, Let it Stay Here:  The definition of irony is an NFL head coach and his staff, following a playoff win, telling their team to keep a low profile, stay focused and “be cool on social media” all while one of their best players is live streaming the speech on, yep you guessed it, social media.  That is the exact scene that played out in the Steelers locker room on Sunday when coach Mike Tomlin was giving a post game pep talk while All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown was posting the speech in real-time on Facebook.  This is wrong on so many levels, most of which are articulated perfectly in this article on SI.com.  One of the strangest aspects of the video is Brown’s child-like enthusiasm about the number of people (40K) following the stream.  I might understand being excited by that number if Brown was a teacher or a fireman but he is an NFL receiver that routinely does his job in front of tens of millions of people every week.  Why the hell would he be so giddy about 40 thousand people following his lame video on Facebook?  
 
-Facetime and Instachat:  I would pay to see Bill Belichick’s reaction if Julian Edelman live-streamed one of his post game talks.  Remember, this is a guy that benched Wes Welker in a playoff game simply for making a few indirect foot jokes.
 
-Brady isn’t the only G.O.A.T playing in this year’s playoffs.  Devin Hester was back to his old tricks returning kickoffs for the Seattle Seahawks.  Hester looked like a threat to break one virtually every time he touched the ball enroute to racking up 194 return yards.  Makes you wonder if Belichick regrets his decision not to sign him late in the year.
 
-Speaking of special teams, Packers kicker Mason Crosby has now made 23 consecutive postseason field goals and showed a massive set of stones Sunday when he drilled a 51 and 56-yard field goal in the last two minutes to win the game.  Crosby’s career playoff field goal percentage is 92.9%.
 
-Tool Time:  Kansas City’s All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce acted like an undisciplined, over emotional jackass against Pittsburgh Sunday night; which is not something new for the Kansas City tight end.  Kelce is the Odell Beckham of tight ends i.e. somebody with a boatload of talent that you are always hoping gets knocked on their ass.
 
-Time is Not on My Side:  The only reason Crosby even had a shot at the game-winner is because Cowboys coach Howdy Doody Jason Garrett wasted a valuable down and a chance to run down the clock when he foolishly had quarterback Dak Prescott spike the ball on first down of their final drive.  Did it never dawn on Garrett that Dallas would be giving the ball back to Aaron Rodgers?
 
-Batman v Superman:  The dream Super Bowl matchup is Tom Brady vs Aaron Rodgers.  The All-time best vs arguably the league’s current best.  But Patriots fans should be careful if they are hoping to face the Packers because Aaron Rodgers looks scary good right now.  Rodgers absolutely shredded the Cowboys to start the game, orchestrating touchdown drives of 75, 80 and 90 yards on the Packers first three possessions, along the way toying with Dallas, getting them to jump on hard counts and catching them in between defensive substitutions.  He looked like a maestro in total command of all aspects of the game as he schooled both the Cowboys players and coaches.  But it was on the final drive where Rodgers otherworldly athletic ability and superior arm talent were on full display.
 
With less than the 30 seconds remaining in regulation, and the game tied, Rodgers was absolutely drilled by a blind side sack, yet managed to not only miraculously hold onto the ball but maintain his wits enough to call a timeout.  Then two plays later, while rolling to his left and with the clock inching towards 0:00, Rodgers somehow threw across his body and completed a perfect 36-yard sideline pass to TE Jared Cook.  It was one of those plays that makes you stop and contemplate if there is any other QB in NFL history that could have completed that pass.  And as if all that wasn’t impressive enough it was later confirmed that Rodgers had actually invented the play in the huddle, drawing it up in the dirt like he was Kurt Russell in ‘The Best of Times’.  
-I’ll Take a Pass:  Not to be too dramatic but the Divisional playoffs almost felt like a battle for the future of the NFL.  Each contest featured four teams (Houston, Seattle, Dallas and Kansas City) that are defined by either their commitment to defense or running the ball, and in some cases both, versus four teams (Green Bay, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and New England) that are primarily driven by their passing attacks.  And for old school thinking guys like me the results were not pretty.  In each game the passing team not only won but, for the most part, controlled and dominated play.  I have nothing against great QB play but it seems that you should have to do more than just pass the ball to win a Super Bowl.  I am looking forward to the Conference Championships but I fear the next three games are going to look less like the NFL I grew up on and more like glorified versions of flag football.