Image courtesy of ESPN

By Ryan Barry
NEFJ Correspondent

Kickoff: The UMass Minutemen head south to Lychburg, Virginia on Saturday afternoon looking to knock off the undefeated Liberty Flames at Williams Stadium. With just two games to go in their 2023 campaign, the Minutemen hope to pick up a win in their final road conquest.

1st Down: A second bye week for the Minutemen meant extra rest for quarterback Taisun Phommachanh (99-for-159, 1,038 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs). The Georgia Tech transfer has been vocal about getting healthier throughout the season since his week one injury against Auburn, though his ability to run the football remains severely limited. Outside his first two games that saw him rush for a combined 130 yards and two touchdowns, Phommachanh has yet to score or have a game with over zero positive rushing yards. It’s unclear if he’s physically limited from running the ball or if the coaching staff is shelving that part of his game for the remainder of the season. His 62.3 completion percentage is decent but his arm hasn’t stood out, with throws either too short or not thrown hard enough a common occurrence. Phommachanh will have an opportunity to grow his game against a Flames defense that is 79th in the FBS in passing yards allowed. Wide receivers Anthony Simpson (45 receptions, 637 yards, 3 TDs) and George Johnson III (28 receptions, 355 yards, 3 TDs) should feature heavily in this matchup.

2nd Down: Usually this down is spent heaping the praise of UMass running back Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams (210 carries, 1,014 yards, 9 TDs; 16 receptions, 90 yards). His 1,000 rushing yards in a season are just the second time a Minutemen player has eclipsed that mark in the FBS era, with former back Ellis Merriweather the first to do so in 2021. However, in their 31-21 win over Merrimack just before the bye week, it was back-up Greg Desroisiers Jr. (31 carries, 285 yards. 4 TDs) that was the talk of social media. His 162 yards and three touchdowns, both career highs, made up for a slower day from Lynch-Adams. It’s been a long time coming this season for these two to finally complement one another, with fans and coaches alike waiting to finally see what many thought could be a formidable 1-2 punch. With two games left there is certainly an opportunity to do so, though a stout Liberty defense ranked 22nd in the FBS in run defense may present trouble. After an average of 180.5 rushing yards allowed in their first two games, the Flames have averaged just 95.6 yards per game since, registering under 100 yards allowed in five of those ten games. The duo of Lynch-Adams and Desroisiers Jr. should expect one of their tougher challenges of the season.

3rd Down: Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter (127-for-214, 2,184 yards, 26 TDs, 4 INTs; 115 carries, 705 yards, 9 TDs) has been one of the best dual-threat signal callers in the nation. In four games this season he’s had 300 or more combined rushing and passing yards, as well as had six games of at least one passing and rushing touchdown. The Minutemen defense struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks in Head Coach Don Brown’s first season back in Amherst. This season there’s been an overall improvement against this particular scheme, but in the way of being hurt by the rush or the pass depending on the game. Against Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn, one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the FBS, the Minutemen limited him in the passing game to just 139 yards and also registered an interception. On the ground it was a completely different story, with Finn gashing the Minutemen 172 yards and a touchdown. The UMass secondary has improved every week since their early season woes, and currently rank 38th in the FBS in passing yards allowed. If this group can slow down Salter it will be a massive boost of confidence for the entire team.

4th Down: The first three months of the season weren’t kind to the UMass run defense. The group would routinely give up explosive plays, allow reserve backs to have career games, and repeatedly fail to stop teams on third and short situations. So far in the month of November, however, the Minutemen have looked much more confident. They may have only moved up one spot from 128th to 127th in total rushing defense across the FBS, but their past two games against Army and Merrimack have been wildly encouraging. The Minutemen kept Merrimack standout running back Tyvone Edmonds Jr. to 75 yards, and limited Army dual-threat quarterback Bryson Dailey to 58 yards. The Flames are led by Wake Forest transfer running back Quinton Cooley (181 carries, 1,066 yards, 9 TDs) who has been the perfect complement to Salter. He’s rushed for over 100 yards in six of ten games, including a career high 179 yards in a win against Louisiana Tech two weeks ago. They also have running back Billy Lucas (72 carries, 386 yards, 3 TDs), a Duquesne transfer who has also been productive. The Flames have no shortage of playmakers who can run the ball making this a focal point for the UMass defense.

Extra Point: This will be the sixth time that these two programs meet with Liberty leading the series 4-1. Last season the Flames came to Amherst and defeated the Minutemen 42-24 in former head coach Hugh Freeze’s last season before taking the Auburn job. New coach Jaimey Chadwell was hired in the offseason after four incredibly productive years at Coastal Carolina where he led the Chanticleers to a 39-22 record and three bowl appearances. The hire came as somewhat of a surprise given the trajectory of Chadwell’s career, with many figuring a Power Five job would be his next stop. The investment in Liberty Athletics, particularly football, has seen the program grow in stature every season, with their recent success a big factor into their recent joining of Conference USA.

Final Drive: The Flames are in the midst of one of their best seasons in program history. While an undefeated record and national ranking are nothing to scoff at, their strength of schedule helps paint a picture of how they’ve ended up so perfect. Unlike other Group of Five programs that typically schedule one or two out of conference games against a Power Five opponent, the Flames didn’t have a single game on their calendar against a team of that caliber. Their four out of conference games featured two match-ups against Mid-American Conference schools (Buffalo, Bowling Green), one Sun Belt team (Old Dominion), and one independent (UMass). Within Conference USA it has widely been considered a down year across the board, as many of the stronger programs have had down or inconsistent seasons. All together, the combined record of both in-conference and out of conference teams Liberty have faced this season is 45-60. In some of these games against poorer opponents, such as FBS newcomers Sam Houston State, the Flames barely escaped with a 21-16 win at home. Collectively for the Minutemen, who’ve gone toe to toe with two Power Five programs (Auburn, Penn State), the Mid-American Conference finalists for this season (Miami (OH), Toledo), and the always challenging Army, their opponents have gone 62-41.  Taking out the historical context of Liberty’s domination of UMass, as well as each team’s current record, to the naked eye one may infer that UMass has done more against better opponents than Liberty has done against mid-level opponents. Part of this could also be out of the Flames hands, with Power Five teams not wanting to schedule a buy-game against such a formidable opponent, but this alone has to encourage the Minutemen. The consistency of the Flames should still see them out as winners, but UMass absolutely has a chance to keep this game close.

Prediction: Liberty 38, UMass 24