Image courtesy of ESPN

By Ryan Barry
NEFJ Correspondent

Kickoff: The UMass Minutemen travel to West Point on Saturday afternoon for a match-up against the Army Black Knights at Michie Stadium. After a much needed bye-week the Minutemen return to the field looking to finish the season better than it started.

1st Down: No one benefited from the bye week more than quarterback Taisun Phommachanh (73-for-116, 813 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs; 42 carries, 43 yards, 3 TDs). UMass Head Coach Don Brown in his Monday press conference said that he was as close to 100% as he’s been all season. With an injury keeping Carlos Davis out of action for the foreseeable future it appears that true freshman Ahmad Haston (8-for-14, 122 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 16 carries, 54 yards) is next in line should Phommachanh go down again. The Army defense are a respectable 40th in the nation in passing yards allowed, but have given up an average of 250 yards per game in three of their last four losses (excluding a rain soaked Boston College defeat). UMass wide receiver Anthony Simpson (36 receptions, 568 yards, 3 TDs) has come on strong in the past few games for the Minutemen and could help expose a downtrodden secondary.

2nd Down: Running back Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams (144 carries, 692 yards, 6 TDs; 13 receptions, 87 yards) has been the Minutemen’s best offensive weapon all season. His 31 yards against Penn State were his lowest in 2023, but against a nationally ranked Nittany Lions defense that is to be expected. Against Army the UMass rushing attack goes up against a unit that’s ranked 110th in the nation in rushing defense. The Black Knights front seven have struggled this season to stop the run, especially against dual-threat quarterbacks. In consecutive Army losses, Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader had 50 yards and a touchdown, followed by a monster 142 yard and four touchdown effort from Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos. If Phommachanh is truly getting back to full health, the Minutemen have to use his running ability to open up the game. With him and Lynch-Adams offering a dynamic one-two punch there’s a real chance for UMass to move the ball on offense.

3rd Down: The Black Knights changed their traditional triple-option attack this summer with the hiring of Drew Thatcher as Co-Offensive Coordinator. As the NCAA continues to enable rule changes around blocking, Army has evolved to meet the game where it’s at. How has the program fared? Certainly mixed to say the least. The Black Knights are 115th in total offense, 127th in passing offense, but still 27th in rushing offense. So how much have they really changed? Apart from snaps out of the shotgun it’s hard to say there’s been a major shift just looking at the numbers, especially as they remain top 30 in the nation in running the ball. Running back Kanye Udoh (53 carries, 288 yards, 1 TD) struggled out the gate but has put up back-to-back weeks of at least 100 yards. Fellow back Hayden Reed (48 carries, 194 yards, 2 TDs) similarly has been inconsistent, but saw more success earlier on in the season. With the Minutemen third last (128th) in the FBS in rushing defense, regardless of who is running the ball the Black Knights should have success.

4th Down: Army quarterback Bryson Daily (42-for-77, 712, 6 TDs, 4 INTs; 100 carries, 412 yards, 3 TDs) has been their most consistent offensive weapon this season. There are questions around Daily’s health going into Saturday after he sat out last Saturday’s 62-0 loss to LSU and was removed from the game in the first half of their 19-0 loss to Troy. Should he have to miss another game it’ll be quarterback Champ Harris (13-for-26, 130 yards, 3 INTs) that steps up in his place. Harris having to play his first two games against Sun Belt contender Troy and national powerhouse LSU are certainly less than ideal debuts, so perhaps a softer landing at home against a struggling UMass team could be what he needs to get things on track. The Minutemen secondary looked much improved in their loss to Toledo before the Penn State game, so regardless of who leads the Black Knights they’ll hope to build on that performance.

Extra Point: The Minutemen have struggled against the Black Knights in their limited history against one another. Despite the geographic closeness of the two programs they have only played on five occasions, with Army winning every single game. Since joining the FBS in 2012 the Minutemen have played them three times, being outscored by a staggering total of 140 – 31. Last year it was a 44 – 7 drubbing in Amherst, a 33 – 17 win in 202, and a gut wrenching 63 – 7 in 2019. While some schools typically celebrate a game against Army, one of the nation’s premier military institutions entrenched in history that comes with a sort of honor when playing, it’s been nothing but a pain for UMass.

Final Drive: Before the season started this game was considered by many to likely fall in the loss column. Given the history of the match-up and the Minutemen’s whoas stopping the run, the goal was to keep it closer than they ever had before at the very least. However, this Army team is not who college football thought they were back in the summer. Their lone FBS win over UTSA may be impressive, but a shutout win over FCS cellar-dweller Delaware State is the only other game they’ve managed to win. With questions at quarterback, an offense still in flux, and a defense that struggles to stop the run, the Minutemen easily have their best shot at a win against Army in the FBS era. The question as it always and seemingly forever remains with this team is whether or not they will be able to get it done. Almost two weeks of rest against a potentially shaky quarterback should see them do that, but it remains to be seen.

Prediction: Army 28, UMass 20