The Patriots have arrived in Santa Clara and with their arrival, the conversation will shift from who can win Super Bowl LX to who will win the big game. Most pundits are going to pick Seattle, which is fine but I am here to tell you the Patriots can win this game as long as they stick to the style that got them here.
On paper, these two teams are pretty evenly matched. The Patriots are second in the NFL in points per game at 28.8. The Seahawks are third at 28.4. Seattle is first in point differential (+191), the Patriots are third (+170). The Seahawks went 6-3 in close games this season, the Patriots were 7-3. Turnover differential is where the two teams were different and it could be to the Patriots advantage. The Patriots were third in turnover differential while the Seahawks finished 19th during the regular season.
You do not have to go into the weeds like some people will do this week with DVOA or analytics to see that the Patriots can not only win this game, they can win by 7 to 10 points. The key will be the health of Drake Maye. If he is healthy and can make his customary plays in and out of the pocket, the Patriots have a good shot at winning this game.
Perhaps the biggest overall key in this game will be turnovers. Both quarterbacks are turnover prone. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold threw 14 interceptions and led the NFL in the regular season with 20 total turnovers. Drake Maye had 13 fumbles in the regular season and playoffs which currently leads the NFL. Darnold plays a safer game than Maye but wilts when pressured. Maye tends to be more loose with the ball in the pocket, dropping it down or pulling it away from his body at times. Ball security will be a point of emphasis this week for both quarterbacks.
Defensively, I fully expect both defenses to dominate the day. Both units have been exceptional in these playoffs and they are built the same. Big inside at defensive tackle with veteran edge rushers and they are long in the secondary. They will get after the two quarterbacks and make life tough on them all game long.
The question is, which offensive skill group matches up the best with the opposing defense? I would say the edge goes to Seattle. With Jackson Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaeed, they have more big play potential and could be a match up problem, especially vertically.
The Super Bowl can be tricky to predict sometimes because the game does not always play out the way you think it will. It might in the first half, but the second half is when games end up flipping and games are won and lost.
All season long, all we have heard is how the Patriots are a product of their schedule. Yet, somehow they are in the Super Bowl. Now they are facing a team that if you listen to some people, might be the reincarnation of the 1985 Chicago Bears. They are not. The Seahawks are a good football team but far from unbeatable.
The Patriots can win this game. Maye needs to play, make plays and the defense needs to be elite, if they are, a seventh Lombardi Trophy could find its way to One Patriots Way.