Photo via AP
Follow me on twitter @zcarey13
Jets @ Patriots: October 24th, 2021. 1 PM
Line: Patriots -7, O/U: 42.5
The Jets are coming off a BYE week and the Patriots are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Cowboys going into their week 7 matchup. Both teams are reeling and looking to get right as they sit at the bottom of the AFC East.
Lets break it down.
New England offense vs New York defense
Passing game matchup
We have the fortune of these two teams already having played each other this year so we know how they matchup to a point. While the Patriots beat the Jets handily when they matched up in week 2, it was not because of an explosion from Mac Jones and the offense. Zach Wilson gave the Patriots 4 extra possessions with turnovers and the Patriots mostly converted those to field goals. The Patriots were also outgained through the air though it was only by 25 yards. Mac Jones played decently the first time around against the Jets, tallying 186 yards on 73% passing with no touchdowns and no interceptions. He was pressured a total of 7 times and sacked 3 times the first go around against the Jets, which will be a key to the game for both teams. Mac has grown every week with the Patriots and last week was no exception, playing in a close game and giving a gutsy performance which wasn’t perfect, but he did not shrink from the moment. The Jets know to slow down the Patriots offense they need to get consistent pressure and that is what they will try to do on Sunday. If the Patriots can’t pick up on the Jets pressure schemes, they run the risk of their quarterback getting demolished like last week. Don’t be surprised to see rookie Rhamondre Stevenson get involved in the passing game either, especially as linebacker CJ Mosley may not play. As of Thursday, guard Shaq Mason was limited with an abdomen injury, but the Patriots offensive line is slowly regaining strength as the weeks go and should be much more familiar this weekend.
The Jets had a BYE week last week but did a pretty good job the first time around against Mac Jones and the Patriots. Like I mentioned, the Patriots’ 25 points came mostly off of Zach Wilson’s turnovers and were mostly field goals, emphasizing the bend don’t break feature of the Jets’ D. But the name of the Jets game this year on both sides of the ball has been inconsistency. The last game they played was in London and they got diced up for 342 passing yards against Matt Ryan and the Falcons. The Jets were bad all around in their London game but I think the BYE week helps them gear up against their division rival and they’ll look better on Sunday than they did against the Falcons. The Jets are getting back safety Marcus Maye who has been injured since that week 2 matchup with the Patriots. On the other hand, CJ Mosley was a non-participant in practice Thursday due to a hamstring injury suffered in London. Mosley is the leader of this defense and makes everything around him work so if he can’t go, that would be a huge hit for the Jets’ defense. He is great in pursuit and in coverage over the middle of the field which is hugely important in Robert Saleh’s defense. The Jets have very little depth behind him so that is a situation to monitor going into the weekend.
If Mosley is out, look for McDaniels to take advantage of the middle of the field with passes to backs out of the backfield and short throws to the tight ends. This one is close, but I’ll give a slight edge to Mac Jones and the Patriots.
Advantage: New England
Running game matchup
The Patriots‘ run game got going in week 6 and looked more like the Patriots’ run game than it has all year. Damien Harris finished the day with 18 rushes for 101 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.6 yards per carry against a solid Dallas defense. A sure fire way to get your offensive line some confidence and rhythm to start the game is by leaning on them to move dudes backwards early and the Patriots will look to do that to the Jets. Regardless of who is playing on the offensive line, the Patriots are getting much better at establishing the run early on. Damien Harris should definitely be the feature back like he has been as he has great vision, is a powerful runner and was good against the Jets the first time around. The Jets have a really good pass rush and run defense, it’ll be pivotal for New England to keep them honest so they cannot pin their ears back and get after Mac Jones in obvious passing situations.
The Jets‘ run defense is usually a strength of their team and while their defensive line is still solid, they rank toward the bottom half of the league this year, giving up 123 yards on the ground per game. This does have a lot to do with the fact the Jets are playing form behind most weeks so teams pound the football to bleed clock and keep the ball away from the offense, but it is still a concerning number. The Jets are coming off of a BYE week and only let up 101 rushing yards to the Patriots in their week 2 meeting so they should be well prepared to handle the rushing attack come Sunday. The combination of Quinnen Williams, Foley Fatukasi, Sheldon Rankins and John Franklin-Myers creates problems for opposing offensive lines but if they are without CJ Mosley, watch for big plays if Damien Harris is able to break a run to the second level.
This is a close one but due to the ability of the Jets’ defense to stop the run in their first matchup with the Patriots and their talent in the defensive trenches, I’ll give them the slight edge here.
Advantage: New York
Dallas offense vs New England defense
Passing game matchup
Could it be any worse for Zach Wilson the second time around against a Bill Belichick coached defense? Don’t answer that question. Zach Wilson threw FOUR interceptions the first time he played the Patriots which were not all his fault, but he put the ball in harms way too much for a quarterback who is trying to give his team a chance to win. Wilson was not sharp in London against a terrible Falcons’ defense, missing easy short throws consistently which was a perplexing sight. Wilson was uber-accurate at BYU, and in the NFL so far it seems like he is short arming or overthinking the short and easy throws while he is ripping balls down the field more accurately. He spent his BYE week practicing his weak spots, specifically the short throws, with his quarterback coach John Beck. The Jets offense is 100% healthy minus their big left tackle Mekhi Becton who will hopefully be returning from his knee injury closer to week 10. The Jets‘ offensive line as a unit has been playing much better recently than the way they started the year and their receiving corps is fully healthy as well. Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has specifically commented that they want to get rookie WR Elijah Moore more opportunities so look for him to get some manufactured touches on the outside and in the slot on Sunday. The Jets will be watching the tape of the Cowboys game to see what worked against the multiple defenses that Belichick threw at them. The only thing is, the Jets aren’t the Cowboys.
The Patriots gave up 445 passing yards and three touchdowns to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys on Sunday. I actually don’t think the Patriots did a horrible job slowing down Dallas, but that just goes to show how explosive their offense is and how talented Dak Prescott is diagnosing and dicing up defenses. Belichick gave the Cowboys just about every defense he has and none of them were able to stop Dak from picking up a pivotal first down or scoring a vital touchdown. The Patriots also got zero sacks on the day even though they finished with 11 pressures, a testament to Prescott’s awareness and the Cowboys’ pass protection. The Patriots simply could not stick with the Dallas receivers in man to man coverage, as the Patriots ran cover-1 and cover-0 man toward the end of the game. This week will be a different story, as the Jets have talent at receiver but nowhere near the talent and star power that Dallas has on the outside. I expect Bill to play man to man and to put pressure on Wilson early to set up some bluff blitzes that turn into zone, baiting the young quarterback into making costly mistakes.
Not much of a choice here. As much as I hope Wilson can figure it out, Bill and the defense have a clear advantage.
Advantage: New England
Running game matchup
The running game is one thing that actually has been improving slowly for New York. They have found their most talented back in young rookie Michael Carter Jr. who had 88 total yards the last time these two teams played. The offensive line is also doing a much better job moving downhill and establishing the run game. The Jets unfortunately have not had the opportunity to establish the run game very much on account of them constantly being down in games early. The offensive line is highlighted by rookie first round selection Alijah Vera-Tucker who so far ranks inside the top ten for run blocking grade among guards according to PFF. He is athletic and can climb up to the second level with ease, making him the perfect guard for the zone blocking run scheme the Jets use. The Jets have been putrid in the first quarter and first half this season, with their only win coming against the Titans in a game where they had to come back from a deficit to win. If they want a chance to beat their division rivals, they’ll need to control time of possession and that starts on the ground. Look for them to get that going early to ease pressure on the young QB.
The Patriots held the Cowboys to 122 rushing yards last week which is right about what they are averaging on the year. The Patriots were moderately effective at stopping a solid rushing attack especially in short yardage situations but the Cowboys realized how effective passing the ball was toward the end of the game. Last time the Jets and the Patriots met the Jets actually outrushed New England by 51 yards so it will be key for the Patriots to shut them down Sunday. Look for Belichick to load up the box to both stop the run and dare rookie Zach Wilson to throw the ball.
I think the Jets outrushing the Patriots last game was an aberration and don’t expect it to happen again. I have New England slightly winning this battle in the trenches.
Advantage: New England
Can it get better for Zach Wilson against Bill Belichick? Jets fans are hoping the answer is yes, but in reality you just don’t know. The Jets are coming off of a BYE week and should be well rested but if CJ Mosley is out it will be extremely hard for them to be same defense that abused the Titans a few weeks ago for their first win. Their only chance is to get to Mac Jones early and often.
I don’t think the Jets are there yet to really compete with the Patriots. Zach Wilson will need to ball out against a defense that gave him his first big wake up call of his career in order for the Jets to secure a W.
I’ll take Bill against a rookie QB.
Prediction: New England-31 New York-17