Photo via: AP/Greg M. Cooper

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Happy New Year readers! To welcome us into 2022, we have a matchup between two very different teams with two very different goals. The Jaguars come in off of a loss to the Jets last weekend and the Patriots come off a demoralizing loss to the division rival Bills that likely cost them the division.

Lets get started.

Jaguars @ Patriots: January 2nd, 2022. 1:00 PM

Line: Patriots -16.5, O/U: 41.5

Motivation

Motivation is something you obviously need to win any football game, but anyone who has coached or played football before know that there is differing levels of motivations for teams in certain games and situations. This game is a story of two teams with very different levels of motivation.

For New England, they are coming off a loss to the Buffalo Bills where Josh Allen seemed like he was he was playing against 3rd stringers in practice. The Patriots were dominated in time of possession and were outgained overall by almost 150 yards total. Mac Jones had another rookie game, completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing two interceptions in the loss. The Patriots scratched and clawed to keep it close the whole game, but there was never much doubt that the Bills were taking the game by halftime.

So how does this affect the Patriots going forward? They are going to be pissed off, that is one thing I know for sure. Bill Belichick’s press conference after the game showed it, his responses were short and sharp and he was not interested in sharing any potential New Year’s resolutions when asked by a very brave reporter.

Another motivator, besides just the loss, is the fact that they still control their own destiny when it comes to securing a playoff spot. They currently own the 2nd out of 3 wild card spot and mathematically have a chance at the division, but it is a tiny one after the loss to Buffalo. Coming off of a losing season, Bill Belichick and the Patriots are starving for another chance at the playoffs and they will not let up until they are there. Not only do they have motivation to make the playoffs, they need to win out or they might miss the playoffs completely. It is not likely, but they have several teams such as Miami, Baltimore and the Chargers on their tail for those wild card spots.

Motivation for Jacksonville is…….well it is a lot harder to come by. If you haven’t heard, Urban Meyer’s tenure in Jacksonville was an abject disaster. After many controversies and questionable quotes that made many questions Meyer’s aptitude for the job, it was a report coming out of him kicking his former kicker that eventually got him canned. That is a start, but that has not magically made the Jaguars better overnight. For lack of a better way to say it, they suck.

Now I am a Jets fan and the Jets also suck, but the toilet bowl that was Jets vs Jaguars last week yielded one victor and it was the New York Jets. The Jags have two wins, both of those coming against AFC East teams, the Bills and Dolphins. These wins were before Meyer left and were miraculous considering just how bad the Jaguars looked in both matchups, but they got the job done.

But what is their motivation to come up to Foxborough and compete with the Patriots? They’re in position for the first overall pick, they have an interim head coach and are just a dysfunctional organization top to bottom. Trevor Lawrence has shown flashes but overall has been bad and you have to think the tumultuous season has been weighing on him heavily. Winning this game would be huge for confidence moving into next year and could be a breakout party for Trevor Lawrence, but I think he’s probably having nightmares of Matt Judon and JC Jackson Saturday night.

Quarterback comfortability

My friend and the founder of New England Football Journal wrote a great article about Mac Jones and the idea that he has hit a rookie wall. John said that he has not and I would agree. Putting things into context, especially for young QBs, is everything.

At the beginning of the year, facing a relatively easy set of teams, Mac Jones looked fantastic and I think that is the type of quarterback he can be. However, we have seen in recent weeks that he is not there yet. People like to frame it as Mac Jones being “exposed” when the reality is, he is being asked to do significantly more against better competition. When Mac is put in a position where he can rely on his defense getting stops and his run game getting chunk plays, he can play calm and collected football. When he is down 10 points to an explosive Buffalo Bills team who have an opportunistic defense, he is going to try and force things more than he would have before. I mentioned last week how bad the Patriots’ special teams has been too, which causes added pressure to the young QB to make up for the deficiencies around him.

To win this game and to set up for a playoff run, the Patriots absolutely need to focus on getting their QB as comfortable as possible within the gameplan. That is easier said than done, but it starts with the run game. The Patriots actually had some success against Buffalo running the ball, the problem was that the defense couldn’t get off the field so the Patriots were playing catch up all game. On Sunday, the run game needs to control and dictate the game flow. Mac will be able to tear this defense apart if he is put in a comfortable position.

The same problem persists in Jacksonville and has all season. The difference is that the Jaguars have never really established the ability to make their QB comfortable. Lawrence has been toward the top of the league in interceptions all year long, but has not thrown one in two full games. If you have watched him closely, it is easy to see that his struggles are not all on him but he certainly has left a lot to be desired when you consider he was branded the next generational signal caller.

Lets talk about context. Lawrence’s top weapons for Sunday will likely be as follows; Dare Ogunbowale, Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, Laquon Treadwell and Luke Farrell. While a lot of these guys would certainly be serviceable role players on a lot of teams in the NFL, they are the Jaguars’ top playmaking weapons which should be concerning to anyone who knows football. The Jacksonville offensive line actually has not been as bad as the rest of the team, ranking toward the middle of the pack according to PFF. That being said, they currently have 4 out of their 5 offensive linemen on the Reserve/COVID-19 list which is less than ideal.

So how can the Jaguars make Lawrence more comfortable against a team and defense that has harassed rookie QBs for years? Unfortunately, I don’t know if it is possible. The Jaguars’ defense is atrocious and can’t get off the field during 3rd and 4th downs, their running game is pretty much non existent without James Robinson and there is no stability from top to bottom to rely on. This may be a disaster game for Lawrence and the Jaguars, and all he can do is come in and focus on what he can control.

Domination

This category is not going to be about the Jaguars. One, because they are not dominating anybody at all. And two, because I am tired of talking about them. This is all about New England.

Often times, when coaches are interviewed or asked about keys to winning games, they mention needing to play their own style of football. Whether that is “Patriots football”, “Alabama football” or whatever else, they highlight needing to dictate how the game goes themselves and not letting the other team control the game. Over the years the Patriots have been the epitome of this and its why they’ve had so much success.

Their identity may be slightly different from year to year, but they always try to play to their own strengths and let their opponent make mistakes. The identity of this Patriots team is play good defense, limit mistakes and penalties and run the football. During the Patriots’ win streak, they embodied this. They were running all over teams with Harris and Stevenson, they were playing fantastic defense and they were limiting mistakes, at least most of time. They’ve started to lose themselves a bit as of late. The special teams woes are not a recent phenomenon, those mistakes have been plaguing the Patriots all year but have not been helping during this recent skid. The defense was torn apart by Jonathon Taylor and the Colts and then dismantled by Josh Allen and the Bills last week. The run game has been unable to dictate the pace of play largely because of the defensive struggles. So the question is, how do they fix it?

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the perfect opponent for the Patriots to get back on track with. Even more important than covering the spread or Mac looking good is the reestablishment of Patriots football. That means 150+ rushing yards, suffocating defense and clean special teams while limiting penalties.

The Patriots have to go to Miami in the final week of the season which is never easy for them and then it is playoff time. If they are still out of wack by the time they match up with the Dolphins, they’ll be in big trouble. It may sound odd to say, but this is a put up or shut up game for the Patriots. I have 0 doubt they will win the game, but they need to DOMINATE. The spread is almost three scores and for good reason, if they come out and execute they should win easily by 3+ scores. But the final result on the scoreboard is less important than them reestablishing themselves as the Patriots we know and love.

Final analysis and pick

Not much analysis to go into the actual pick for this game, but this is an important game even with the mismatch. Are these the Patriots that blow out bad teams when they are supposed to and can make a playoff run? Or are they frauds?

The first part of that prompt the Patriots can answer with a resounding yes, they’ve shown this year the ability to beat bad teams. But their path to answering the second part, if they are contenders are not, starts on Sunday afternoon. The Jaguars are the unfortunate squad that stands in the way.

There will be blood.

Pick: Patriots-31 Jaguars-10