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HO HO HO! Happy Holidays to all of the readers here at NEFJ.

In the spirit of the Holidays and because my last preview for Patriots vs Bills was for a normal game and not one in a monsoon, I’m gonna switch things up for this preview. You can read my last in depth preview here where I break down how the teams matchup and personnel in detail.

For this preview, I’ll be highlighting a few key areas that will need to be taken advantage of for either team to have an edge in this game. These two teams are pretty evenly matched and this matchup on Sunday will be more modern football, rather than the 1950’s style we saw in week 13 when there was a monsoon in Buffalo.

Lets get started.

Bills @ Patriots: December 26th, 2021. 1:00 PM

Line: Patriots -2, O/U: 43.5

Trench warfare

This is an area that is important in every matchup, but especially between these two teams and their differing play styles. Those differences were magnified in the week 13 matchup as the Patriots leaned on what they do best, running the football and controlling time of possession. Other than the Damien Harris long touchdown run at the beginning of the game, the Patriots were not overly efficient running the football. A win is a win and Bill Belichick does not care how it comes, but the Bills’ defensive front actually did an ok job limiting the big plays. The Bills’ front 7 simplydidn’t create enough negative plays until the 4th quarter, where they gave their QB a couple chances to win the game. The run game for the Patriots will be more open this game, as they’ll be able to open up the offense a bit more with Mac Jones. Getting chunk plays on the same run plays they were using in the first matchup like counter, wham, G-lead and more, will be imperative if they want their offensive unit to keep up with Josh Allen and the Bills. A good run game makes pass protecting significantly easier, so if the Patriots can get the run game going, it’ll put Mac in some easy spots to throw the ball in a nice pocket. The Bills will be coming after him early if they watched the Colts game last week.

For Buffalo, they may need to buck their own trend if they want to have success against the Patriots. In week 13, they did not play to the weather like the Patriots did. Josh Allen dropped back 37 times and the Bills’ offensive line did a nice job protecting him for the most part, allowing only 7 pressures and two sacks total. That is the Bills’ identity, pass pass pass and more pass. They’re not particularly good at running the ball, but if they watched the Colts’ beat up on New England, they’ll want to at least try and replicate some of what Indy did. Belichick uses a lot of different personnel, but he likes to have an extra defensive back up toward the line of scrimmage to help play the run and be able to drop into coverage. This works well most of the time, but the Colts kept heavy personnel on the field and just took advantage of their beef in the run game. It worked wonders, as when Belichick eventually adjusted it was simply too late in the game to make a difference. The Bills don’t really have the dudes that Indy does to do this, but they should try to take advantage of light boxes (Size wise, not numbers wise) that Bill gives them. His priority will be to shut down Josh Allen and rightfully so, but if they play their cards right, they should be able to put a hat on a hat and win in the run game. In the pass game, it’s all about execution and communication between the offensive line. The Patriots come at you with multiple fronts, stunts and blitzes and the Bills did a nice job dealing with it the first time around. But the questions becomes: can they do it again?

Special teams

Usually a strength for the Patriots during Belichick’s tenure in New England, last week against the Colts was one of the worst special teams performances we have seen from them in a long time. The biggest miscue was Jake Bailey’s punt that was blocked and returned for a touchdown in an already lopsided game in favor of Indy. That was the third New England punt that was blocked this season. Before this season, it had been FIVE years since they had let up a blocked punt. Belichick gave a Belichick answer when asked about it, simply saying, “we didn’t block the guy”. The free rusher came right up the middle and while I would normally say this will get them to tighten things up, but it is becoming a troublesome trend that might not just go away. The Patriots also jumped offsides on a Colts’ missed field goal, giving them another chance which they converted. Even old reliable Nick Folk had a few head scratching kick offs that gave Indy good field position. He has been fantastic kicking field goals this year however, converting almost 92% of his attempts this year. As my friend Jon Lyons pointed out in his awesome article on the Patriots’ special teams, they have 13 special teams penalties already through 14 games which is absolutely dreadful for a Belichick coached team. The Bills are a very good football team and you can not give them any edge, including on special teams.

The Bills’ special teamers have been pretty good this year, ranking around the middle of the pack in most metrics. Tyler Bass, their kicker, has been solid this year as well, making almost 86% of his kicks. He is 42-42 on his extra points and is 2-4 on kicks of 50+ yards with a long of 57. He has had to kick in tough weather in Buffalo and certainly is not averse to kicking in cold weather, which is what it is looking like for Foxborough on Sunday. Gillette is a tough place to kick regardless of where you’ve practiced at. The Bills have only had one punt blocked on the year due to a mishandled snap, but they rank top 3 in punt return yards allowed in the NFL. They also rank inside the top 10 in return yards on punt and kick returns, thanks a lot to returner Isaiah McKenzie who is an explosive athlete. They have yet to block a punt or kick on the year, but with the gravity of this game and it’s importance to the playoff race, they will be coming after the Patriots’ punter Jake Bailey with creative rushes.

Turnovers

Mac Jones showed his first signs of being a frazzled rookie quarterback in the Patriots’ week 15 game against Indy. He threw 2 interceptions, including an ugly and costly one directly to Darius Leonard in the red zone. His second one was another bad throw on an out route that was picked off by Bobby Okereke. It was a throw that just needed more juice, and Okereke made a really nice play on the ball. Jones’ arm strength has been criticized and rightfully so, he simply needs to put more mustard on those throws so defenders’ don’t have a chance to jump in front of it. The Patriots’ running backs have been much better holding on to the ball recently compared to the beginning of the season which is a promising sign. On defense is where the Patriots’ can take advantage here. JC Jackson leads the way with 7 interceptions on the year and Adrian Phillips is second with 4. The Patriots were unable to get a turnover off of the Bills and Allen in their first matchup, he took great care of the ball and had 0 turnover worthy plays per PFF. If they sit in their usual 3-4 with Dugger or Phillips playing in the box, I think they have a good chance to get at least one takeaway in this matchup. The pass rush will be big to get Allen off of his spot, but its going to be up to the guys in the back end to track the ball and stick on Buffalo’s athletic receivers.

I mentioned this in my preview for the first matchup between these two teams, but Josh Allen is still vulnerable to turn the ball over at any given moment. He has 12 interceptions on the year, already eclipsing his total of 10 from last season. He has been less accurate than last season as well and has 6 interceptions in his last 5 games, the New England matchup being the lone game without a turnover. He is still ridiculously talented and there is a reason his name is still mentioned in the MVP conversation, but it is imperative that he takes care of the football, especially against an opportunistic defense like New England. The Bills on defense can get to Mac Jones and they need to do it early if they want a chance at creating chaos and generating takeaways. Before the Colts were able to pick the ball off twice last week, they had Mac Jones running around the backfield, unable to sit in a nice pocket like he is accustomed to. Don’t get me wrong, I am a big fan of Mac Jones, but throwing on the run or off balance is a big weakness of his. When he can sit back and get rid of the ball, he is absolutely surgical. When you can get him off his spot, he tends to get flustered. He bounced back after his two picks last week, but they were still costly and contributed heavily to their loss. If the Bills want to win this game, it’ll start with the pass rush up front. The talented safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer have 8 interceptions on the year between the two of them and they’ll look to add to that against a rookie QB.

Final analysis and pick

To say this is a huge game is a massive understatement. The winner of this game will be in prime position to take home the AFC East crown and make a deep playoff run. The loser will be battling for a wild card spot with some really solid teams and will have to travel throughout the playoffs.

The last matchup between these two teams only told us so much. That the Patriots are willing to do ANYTHING they can to win, even run into a brick wall 30+ times. The Bills have had 2 games to ramp up and figure things out since the first matchup, a close loss to the Buccaneers and a thrashing of the Carolina Panthers. They played well in both games and now have a chance to redeem themselves against their division rival.

The Patriots’ record against the Bills at Gillette Stadium is 33-17 which is supremely impressive, though a lot of that was due to the GOAT’s reign. They are coming off of a tough loss after their BYE week to a Colts‘ team who straight up outplayed them. I have no doubt New England will come ready to play this week after a loss like they had on Sunday.

I still believe the Bills are the better team between these two. Week 13 was an instant classic and I guarantee they have not stopped thinking about it since. The Bills’ defense took their failure to consistently stop the run personally, highlighted by Poyer and Hyde’s reaction to a postgame question about their performance. But can they come to Gillette and beat the Patriots when they absolutely need to? That will be the test to see if they are the same old AFC East door mats that they have been, or if they are the new kings of the division.

Give me the better team with the better quarterback to establish their new position as alphas of the AFC East.

Prediction: Bills-20 Patriots-17