It is not hyperbole to say that if the Patriots want to have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs this season, Thursday night’s game against the Bills is a must win. Win and the Patriots are still in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. Lose and the road to a playoff is a much more challenging path.

The Patriots played arguable their best game of the season offensively last Thursday night as Mac Jones completed 28-of-39 passes for 382 yards and two touchdowns. He had a passer rating of 119.4. If the offense can somehow build off of that performance and play at the same level against Buffalo, then the Patriots have a legitimate shot of n ot only getting into the playoffs but they may also be a factor.

The running game has been this team’s bread and butter this season and it does need to get back on track but the Patriots are better offensively when they are a 60-40 pass to run team. If they are closer to 50-50, it actually limits the offense. Balance is important but there some weeks where the passing game needs to be better than the running game. Big plays are a fact of life in the modern NFL. If the Patriots want to keep pace in the AFC with Buffalo and Kansas City, they will need to consistently make their fair share of big plays.

The Patriots are currently averaging 21.7 points per game. They have scored 239 points on the season. Those numbers are simply not good enough if they want to contend for a playoff spot or a title. The defense has played at an elite level but as we saw last week, they have some match up limitations and they will struggle with offenses that can push the ball vertically down the field. In games like that, the offense needs to be able to match the other team score for score.

It has been an up and down season for the Patriots offensively. Between the injury to Mac Jones and the struggles of the offensive line, they have struggled with consistency. If this group can put it togehter now and play their best football down the stretch, the Patriots could find themselves in the playoffs. If they do not however, this team will be hard pressed to win eight games and get in.

Tomorrow night’s game will give us a pretty good indication of what is in store the rest of the way.