Kickoff: The Patriots begin a two game West Coast swing tonight against the Arizona Cardinals. It is a must win for the Patriots if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. The two teams are meeting for the first time since 2020. The Patriots won that match up 20-17. This will be the Patriots first trip to Arizona since 2016. Led by Jimmy Garoppolo, the Patriots beat the Cardinals 23-21 to kickoff the season. The Patriots lead the all-time series with an 8-7 record.

Four Downs

1st Down: Finish in the red zone: The Patriots have the NFL’s worst red zone offense and the Cardinals have the league’s worst red zone defense. Something has to give right? The Patriots must capitalize and finish drives with touchdowns. Field goals won’t cut it this time of year. The Patriots need to score touchdowns inside the 20 yard line. Tonight is an opportunity to gain confidence in this area.

2nd Down: Pick up the blitz: Arizona will light up Mac Jones. They will come after him from all angles. The Patriots offensive line must communicate in pass pro and Jones must do a good job of identifying the free rusher and hit the hot. Blitz pick up will be a big part of this game.

3rd Down: Get the ground game back on track: The Patriots offense is at its best when the running game is operating at peak efficiency. It hasn’t been the same the past four weeks so I would like to see the Patriots try to establish the ground game early tonight and get it on track.

4th Down: Defend Murray and the RPO game: The Cardinals offense is diverse. They can beat you running the ball, throwing the ball and in the RPO game. The Patriots must cloud Kyler Murray’s reads and make him hold the ball. Arizona’s running game and RPO passing game are what allow Murray to get into a rhythm. The Patriots cannot let him get into a rhythm. If he does, it could be a long night.

Extra Point: After getting off to a 1-6 start against the Cardinals in the head to head series, the Patriots won five in a row. Since then, the Patriots and Cardinals have split (2012 and 2016). The Patriots are 4-1 under Bill Belichick against Arizona.

Final Drive: The Cardinals are 1-10 in their last eleven home games. They have gone 8-14 since starting last season 7-0. The trends favor the Patriots but they have proven to be too inconsistent to pick definitively. I still think they win tonight but it will be a battle. I expect a 24-21 type of game.