Kickoff: The Patriots and Bills are meeting for the second time this season. New England won the first meeting on October 22nd, 29-25 for their first win of the season. Since then, the Patriots have gone 2-6. Buffalo conversely has turned their season around winning four of their last five and in the process, putting themselves in a good position to make the playoffs. The Bills could clinch a playoff spot with a win today and a Steelers and Bengals loss. 

Here are four keys to the game.

1st Down: Control the line of scrimmage: If the Patriots want to win this game, they will need to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They must stop Josh Allen, James Cook and that Bills running game and they must find a way to effectively run the football.

2nd Down: Throw on first down: Why not? I would attack this banged up Buffalo secondary. In the first match up, Mac Jones completed 25 of 30 for 272 yards and two touchdown passes. The Patriots offense is playing better of late and they have been more consistent. Bill O’Brien needs to be aggressive in the passing game and push the ball downfield. Attack Buffalo’s corners! 

3rd Down: Disguise coverages: The Patriots have been able to confuse Josh Allen through the years by showing him multiple looks in coverage. Expect more of the same today. Bill Belichick will try to confuse Allen by moving post snap and changing the alignment of the secondary. 

4th Down: Kicking game must be on point: Chad Ryland had arguably his best game of the season in the first matchup, going 3 for 3 on field goal attempts. Ryland and punter Bryce Baringer will play an important role in determining today’s outcome. The kicking game is always important in Buffalo. 

Extra Point: This week’s match-up will be the 129th meeting between the two teams. New England leads the series 78-49-1 and has won 37 of the last 47 regular season games between the two teams, dating back to 2000. The Patriots are 38-25-1 all-time in games played in Buffalo, including a 31-19 record at Highmark Stadium.

Final Drive: The Patriots stunned the Bills in the first match-up but I wouldn’t expect a repeat result today. Buffalo has a lot to play for in this game as a playoff birth is on the line. The Bills are favored by 14. I think the Patriots play them tough and cover but the Bills win. It is hard to imagine the Patriots sweeping Buffalo given the circumstances.