Kickoff: It is hard to believe but the Patriots and Bills are meeting for the first time this season and it is Week 16. The Patriots are coming off of a lackluster 30-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. The Bills on the other hand picked a big 48-42 shootout win over the Detroit Lions. Buffalo has already clinched the AFC East. They still have an outside shot at the number one seed in the AFC but they will need to win over and they need the Chiefs to lose their last two. 

Here are four keys to the Patriots in this game.

1st Down: Weather the storm: As always, the weather will be a factor. It will be cold and frigid in Buffalo. Add the Bills Mafia to the mix and the Patriots are walking into a difficult situation. Weathering the storm early will be key. The Patriots need to score early and the defense must get stops in the first half if the Patriots are going to have any chance of pulling off the upset.

2nd Down: Smartly defend Josh Allen: The Patriots have to be fundamentally sound when defending Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Sugar rushing him on the outside and getting consistent pressure on Allen inside with the defensive tackles will be key. Blitzing him would be a mistake. Allen has thrown 16 touchdown passes when blitzed this season, most in the NFL. It is more about a sound pass rush plan and coverage.

3rd Down: Aggressive offensive play-calling: Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has to be aggressive in this game. The Patriots are playing with house money. Reverses, double passes and deep shots in plus territory. All of it has to be on the table. Buffalo’s defense has gotten ripped the last two weeks and while the Patriots skill group isn’t as good as the Rams and Lions, they are good enough to put some pressure on the Bills beleaguered defense. 

4th Down: Bend but don’t break defensively: The Bills offense is tough to stop from the 20 to the 20 but they are even tougher to stop in the red zone. Buffalo has the number one ranked red zone rushing attack in the NFL and the number four passing attack in the red zone. If the Patriots want to have any chance of keeping this game competitive, they need to get some red zone stops and force field goals. 

Extra Point: This week’s game will be the 130th meeting between the two teams. The Patriots hold a 78-50-1 edge in the series and have won 37 of the last 48 regular season games between the two teams, dating back to 2000. The Patriots are 38-26-1 all-time in games played in Buffalo, including a 31-20 record at Highmark Stadium.

Final Drive: The Patriots are walking into the lions den. Buffalo has plenty to play for and they will come out flying. They have struggled to match up with Buffalo the last three years. New England managed to earn a split last season by upsetting Buffalo at home but do not expect that to happen this week. The Patriots do not have enough talent to go to Buffalo and upset the Bills. Fans can only hope that they compete in this one and don’t get blown out.