Odds: Patriots -3.5, O/U: 43.5
Kickoff: The Patriots are playing in the AFC Championship game for the 13th time today when they visit the Denver Broncos. Today’s meeting is the third meeting between the two teams in the AFC Championship game. The Patriots have lost all four playoff games they have played in Denver.
Mike Vrabel’s team will look to reverse that trend today as a 3.5 favorite. New England is favored because the Broncos are starting old friend quarterback Jarrett Stidham today. Starting quarterback Bo Nix fractured his ankle last week in the overtime win over the Bills.
Here are four keys to the game.
1st Down: Get consistent pressure on Stidham: The Patriots have been blitzing up a storm in these playoffs and look for it to continue today. I expect them to bring consistent pressure on Stidham, especially early on and try to force him into an early mistake. They will also disguise coverages in an effort to do that as well.
2nd Down: Strike first: The Patriots need to get off to a good start and put all the pressure squarely on the Broncos. If the Patriots can play with the lead, they could get Broncos coach Sean Payton out of his game plan and that could give them the much needed momentum they will need on the road.
3rd Down: Left side of the offensive line must hold up: Will Campbell and Jared Wilson will have their hands full with Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen. Denver led the NFL in sacks with 68 during the regular season. They can get after the quarterback and they will isolate the two rookies as much as possible today when they blitz.
4th Down: Drake needs to be the difference: Drake Maye has been inconsistent in these playoffs. He’s shown flashes of brilliance but he has also turned the ball over. He needs to be accurate and consistent today as a passer and above all else, he needs to take care of the ball.
Extra Points: The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos will meet for the sixth time in the postseason and for the third time in the AFC Championship. The Patriots and Broncos have played in three Divisional Playoff games and two AFC Championship Games. The Patriots lost both of those championship games with a 26-16 loss in the 2013 AFC Championship Game and 20-18 in the 2015 AFC Championship Game. Both of those games were played in Denver.
The Patriots are 0-4 in the postseason in Denver. In addition to the two AFC Championship Game losses, the Patriots also lost in the Divisional round in 1986 and 2005. The Patriots have played more games against the Broncos than any other team that has never been in New England’s division with 55 matchups. At Denver, the Patriots are 12-17 in the regular season and 12-21 overall including the postseason. The teams last faced off in the 2023 season when New England prevailed, 26-23, on Dec. 24, 2023.
The history between the teams dates back to the initial season of the American Football League in 1960. The Patriots played the Broncos in the inaugural game of each franchise, a 13-10 Denver win on Sept. 9, 1960, at BU Field in Boston. The teams squared off twice a year in the decade prior to the AFL-NFL merger, except for 1967 and 1969.
SERIES BREAKDOWN
DENVER 31, NEW ENGLAND 24 (INCLUDING POSTSEASON)
Home Record 12-10 (1-0 playoffs)
Road Record 12-21 (0-4 playoffs)
(Information courtesy of Patriots Communications, patriots.com)
Final Drive: The Patriots are rightfully favored today but thinking they are going to roll to a win is foolish. Denver is well coached, talented and they have a distinct home field advantage. Belichick and Brady couldn’t win in Denver in the playoffs. Will Vrabel and reverse the trend? We’ll see. I think Patriots win, but it’ll be anywhere from 3 to 10 points. This game will be tight from start to finish.