Andrew Luck is back and yes. He’s a QB1.
Every year before your draft, you do endless hours of research trying to find sleepers that you think can help you win a championship.
As you well know, there are sleepers and there are busts. Here are ten sleepers and ten busts for this season.
10 Sleepers
1. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants: Yes, Manning is a sleeper. He has done nothing fantasy relevant the past three seasons but he will turn things around this season playing in Pat Shurmur’s west coast offense.
2. Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts: The forgotten quarterback is healthy and primed for a bounce back season. Owners will shy away from him as a QB1, especially in ten team leagues. I wouldn’t. Luck will flourish in Frank Reich’s offense and he has a lot of pieces to work with.
3. Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs are going to need to run the football more early in the season with Jameis Winston suspended. Jones will have an opportunity to acclimate himself into Tampa system and make a fantasy impact right out of the gate.
4. Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers: The forgotten man in the Chargers offense could be in line for a big season statically if he gets on the same page with Phillip Rivers.
5. Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos: Another rookie running back who could be a solid bench option for bye weeks but also has flex appeal down the road. If nothing else, Freeman could be a goal line vulture in the Broncos offense.
6. Vance McDonald, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers list McDonald as the starting tight end. McDonald is a good route runner who knows how to get open and catch the ball in traffic. He could be a valuable red zone target for the Steelers.
7. Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins: The rookie tight end will be a match up nightmare for defenses, especially in the red zone. It would not surprise me if he caught 6 to 8 touchdown passes.
8. Paul Richardson, WR, Washington Redskins: The Redskins will utilize Richardson as more than just a vertical threat who can take the top off of a defense. Richardson will get more touches in the screen and three step passing game which makes him a legit flex option.
9. Trey Burton, TE, Chicago Bears: Burton should flourish in Matt Nagy’s offense. He is not a traditional in line tight end but he can generate match ups as a detached move tight end. Burton is a borderline TE1.
10. Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts: It’s hard to not get excited about Mack who is now locked in as the starting running back for the Colts. There is no Frank Gore to T-Block him in goal line situations anymore.
Ten Busts
1. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders: If you think playing for Jon Gruden will make Beast Mode a relevant fantasy back again, you would be wrong. The tread is off the tires. He’s toast.
2. Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings: I don’t like the pieces around Cousins as much as other people do. I like Dalvin Cook at running back and Kyle Rudolph at tight end but I don’t buy the notion that the receivers will all of a sudden become all pros because Cousins is in town.
3. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: I don’t trust Mahomes and I don’t view him as a QB1. Sorry. Mahomes holds onto the ball too long and runs around too much when plays breakdown. He will struggle in Andy Reid’s offense as a result.
4. Alex Collins, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Between the rest of the league catching up to him and his usage, Collins will not be the back he was last season.
5. Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Look, Watkins is still a big play receiver but if you think he is a WR1, you are wishing for something that will not come true. Watkins is wildly inconsistent and injury prone. No thanks!
6. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions: Stafford is a QB1 and Jim Bob Cooter is still his offensive coordinator. The problem is the philosophy of new coach Matt Patricia. He wants to run the football and lean on the defense. That philosophy will cut into Stafford’s production.
7. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Hill will still make the occasional big play but he will be drafted as a WR2. Making the occasional big play isn’t enough when you are drafting a receiver to start for you.
8. Jay Ajayi, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: Ajayi will be drafted as an RB2 but the Eagles will rotate their backs which means Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood, Josh Adams and Darren Sproles will all get touches. Too many mouthes too feed which makes Ajayi unappealing.
9. Michael Crabtree, WR, Baltimore Ravens: Crabtree will still be a prime red zone target but he is no longer the receiver he was three years ago. That and Joe Flacco is inconsistent.
10. Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins: Let me give you the good and the bad news when it comes to Reed. The good news. He is playing with a tight end friendly quarterback in Alex Smith. The bad news. He still gets hurt and can’t be counted on.