It’s divisional round weekend. The top four seeds in each conference are in action. Will they hold serve at home or are they primed for an upset? We will know by the end of the weekend.
Here are our three key previews for three of the four games. We will do a separate preview for the Patriots game.
1/13 4:35 ET Atlanta -3 At Philadelphia 41
The Falcons are favored as the road team which is unheard of in the divisional round. It speaks to how little confidence Vegas has in Eagles quarterback Nick Foles.
Here are three keys for both teams.
3 Keys for the Falcons
1. Get Off to a Fast Start: The Falcons got off to a fast start last week against the Rams and it paid off. Atlanta needs to get off to a good start again in this one and take what should a rambunctious Eagles crowd out of the game by scoring first.
2. Deal With the Pressure: The Eagles defensive line is among the best in the NFL. Philadelphia can get good pressure from their front four. The Falcons offensive line will have their hands full. Pass protection will be a major key for the Falcons if they want to win this game.
3. Get to Foles: The Falcons defensive line has been a real force the past few weeks. If Vic Beasley and company can get consistent pressure on Nick Foles and force him from the pocket consistently, he will turn the ball over. They cannot allow Foles to get comfortable.
3 Keys for the Eagles
1. Nick Foles Must Play Well: Simple I know but it’s the biggest key for the Eagles in this game. If Foles struggles, the Eagles will struggle. He must play well or Philadelphia will lose.
2. Get the Run Game Going Early: If the Eagles are going to take pressure off of Foles, they must run the ball early. Getting Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount going early will be a major key for the Eagles.
3. Handling Julio: Look, Philadelphia will not stop Julio Jones but they have to slow him down. If they don’t, they are in for a long day. Getting consistent pressure on Matt Ryan will also help Philadelphia’s young secondary.
Prediction: Falcons 28 Eagles 24: The Falcons have that team of destiny of feel. I think they go into Philadelphia and get the job done. Atlanta will advance to their second straight NFC Championship game.
1/14 1:05 ET At Pittsburgh -7 Jacksonville 41
The Jaguars thumped the Steelers 30-9 in week 5. Jacksonville’s defense picked off Ben Roethlisberger five times in the win. I don’t expect Ben to play that poorly in this game but the Jaguars defense will still give the Steelers fit.
Here are three keys for both teams
3 Keys for the Jaguars
1. It’s All About Blake: Blake Bortles was terrible last week against the Bills. Had he not rushed for 89 yards, Jacksonville might not have put together a productive drive. Bortles has to play much better this week if the Jags want to pull off the upset. He cannot miss open receivers.
2. Answer the Bell: The Jaguars front seven must control the line of scrimmage and keep Le’Veon Bell in check. With Antonio Brown a game time decision, Pittsburgh may opt to emphasize the running game. Jacksonville will get a heavy dose of Bell. They must control the line of scrimmage.
3. Fournette for the Win: Jaguars offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett did a poor job of getting Leonard Fournette touches at the start of last week’s game. The Jags need to establish the run early if they want to win this game. Jacksonville has to keep the Pittsburgh offense on the sideline as much as possible. Running the ball will enable them to do that.
3 Keys for the Steelers
1. Spread the Wealth: With Antonio Brown still nursing a calf injury, the Steelers have to spread the ball around ball and get other guys involved offensively. They cannot count on Brown being ready.
2. Blitzburgh vs. Sacksonville: The Steelers need to get consistent pressure on Blake Bortles and they need to be able to protect Big Ben. If Pittsburgh cannot control the line of scrimmage, they lose. It’s really that simple.
3. Take Care of Business: It doesn’t matter what happened in the first meeting. This is the playoffs. The Steelers have been here before and they will be ready to play. Pittsburgh can’t have that much desired rematch with the Patriots if they can’t win this game.
Prediction: Steelers 27 Jaguars 13: The Jaguars defense will keep them in this game but they cannot win this game with Blake Bortles quarterbacking them. I am not picking on him. That is the truth.
1/14 4:40 ET At Minnesota -5 New Orleans 46.5
The marquee match up of the weekend. The Saints and their high octane offense head north to Minnesota to battle the Vikings and their stout defense. This should be a great game and it should be tight through out.
Here are three keys for both teams.
3 Keys for the Saints
1. Run to Pass: The Saints have to run the football in order to throw the football. Given their injuries along the offensive line, New Orleans has to pound the ball in order to set up the play action passing game and the drop back passing game.
2. Win the One on One Match-Ups: The Saints have the skill group necessary to generate one on one match ups. Getting Alvin Kamara in space against the Vikings linebackers is a match up the Saints have to take advantage.
3. Get Pressure on Case Keenum: Case Keenum has been terrific this season for the Vikings. Part of the reason Keenum has been successful is the play of the Vikings offensive line. They have given Keenum great protection all season long. The Saints have to get consistent pressure on Keenum and disrupt his timing.
3 Keys for the Vikings
1. Get Murray and McKinnon Going Early: The Vikings need to be balanced if they want to win this game. Minnesota is at their best offensively when they mix the run and the pass and keep defenses off balance. They cannot put the onus solely on Keenum in this game.
2. Take Away Brees Rush Lanes: The Vikings front four must not only get pressure on Brees but they cannot allow him to adjust the pocket and create passing lanes. The Vikings defensive line needs to get hands up and create traffic in the pocket for Brees.
3. Win the Turnover Battle: Generic I know but both teams thrive on generating turnovers. The Vikings defense will need to give their offense extra possessions if they want to win this game. Winning the turnover battle will be key for the Vikings.
Prediction: Vikings 24 Saints 21: Having home field will be the difference for the Vikings in this game. I like Minnesota by a field goal.