By Michael Vallee

On a night when the Patriots were out-played, out-hit, out-coached and out-classed it’s instinctual to react.  Is the defense overrated?  Are they now doomed against Pittsburgh?  Is Brady finally showing his age late in the year?  It’s the easy and obvious thing to do.  If you see a guy get his ass kicked in a fight, then someone asks you if you think he will win his next fight. It’s hard to look at his bloodied face and answer “Yes.”  It’s just human nature.  But don’t fall into that trap.  Sure, New England was dominated for virtually all four quarters, on both sides of the ball and all along the trenches, but in the grand scheme of things the Patriots’ deceptively close 27-20 loss to Miami means absolutely nothing.

Monday night’s Patriots game was what I call a typical NFL “exception to the rule” game and for all predictions and projections going forward it should be ignored.  That’s right, ignored.  Forget it, wipe it from your mental hard drive, erase it from your DVR, in the immortal words of Donnie Brasco, “Fuggetaboutit”.  Over the course of a long NFL season these “exception to the rule” games will crop up from time to time.  They are games where the two teams behave so wildly different from everything we know about both of them that it defies logic.  It would be like turning on your TV and hearing Phil Simms say something coherent.

Does anyone remember that the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-9 in Pittsburgh?  And did it matter?  Hell no, the Jaguars lost at home the following week by double digits and the Steelers went on to win eight straight.  Does anyone remember the lowly Chicago Bears beating the Carolina Panthers 17-3?  And the fallout?  None.  The Panthers won four of their next five and the Bears lost five in a row.  How about the Baltimore Ravens beating the Miami Dolphins 40-0, week 8.  Did this spur the Ravens to great things and ruin the Dolphins season?  Not really, the Dolphins went on a little slide but here we are six weeks later and both teams are hovering around .500.  These games happen all the time and the results, while shocking, determine very little about either team.

The Patriots certainly have their own history with these games.  In fact, they played the ultimate “exception to the rule” game opening night when they were shellacked at home by the Kansas City Chiefs, 42-27.  A harbinger of things to come?  Hardly.  The Chiefs have gone .500 since and the Patriots won 10 of their next 12.

The ultimate example of this came in 2014 when those same Chiefs destroyed the Patriots 41-14 in the now infamous, “They’re not good anymore game”, a quote from Trent Dilfer that illustrates just how easy it is to overreact to these results.  But we all remember what happened, the Patriots won their next seven games and finished 13-2 over their final 15, culminating in yet another Super Bowl title.  Illustrating that not only are these games not an indicator of future results, they might actually help the team on the losing end.  These surprising lopsided defeats can be both humbling and galvanizing, resulting in a team sharpening its edge and rallying around the negative publicity.

Another famous example from the Belichick era was the 31-0 beatdown New England suffered at the hands of the Buffalo Bills week 1 of the 2003 season – the game now known as the “Lawyer Milloy game”.  Following that humiliating defeat the Patriots won 16 of their next 17 including the Super Bowl and the Drew Bledsoe Bills finished the season with a record of 6-10.

These games are by no means a new phenomenon.  In 1994 the eventual Super Bowl champion San Francisco 49ers lost at home 40-8 to the lowly Philadelphia Eagles.  It was as big an ass-whooping as the score indicates.  The Impact?  The Niners went 13-1 to close out the season and were later named one of the 20 greatest teams in NFL history.  The Eagles finished the season on a 3-8 spiral costing charismatic head coach Rich Kotite his job.  In 1979 the always terrible Cincinnati Bengals beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-10.  The Bengals finished with a record of 4-12, the Steelers finished the season with their 4th Super Bowl title.

We know these games happen but the perplexing question is why?  There are a variety of potential reasons.

-Looking ahead:  It happens at every level of football.  It’s human nature.  When you have a crucial game in two weeks it’s easy to look past the shitty opponent you’re playing that week.  Patriots vs Pittsburgh is the most important regular season game of the 2017 NFL season.  Both teams have had it circled for weeks, Tomlin outright admitted that.  This was a classic spot to start looking ahead on the schedule.

-Motivation:  This game meant little to New England.  Beat Pitt and you are the number one seed, lose and you’re not.  Same exact stakes if they had beaten Miami.  Additionally they had easily defeated Miami just two weeks earlier.  For the Patriots this game was a big giant yawn.  For Miami this was their Super Bowl.  Not only was it essential they win to have any semblance of a chance to make the playoffs but this was their chance to save what is likely a lost season.  A chance to avenge a chippy loss at Gillette and register a signature win to build on for next season.

-Division rival:  Division games have typically been a breeding ground for big upsets.  One reason might be the emotional component fueled by the familiarity of a division foe.  Simply put, these teams know each other too well to be intimidated and the close quarters of the division generally fuels hatred.  A team that is motivated, fueled by hate and not easily intimidated is in a perfect mindset to pull an upset.  This is one of the reasons why you see so many upsets, including dominating upsets like Monday night, in division games.

-Injuries/Suspensions:  I love it when people say, “Injuries are no excuse”.  Actually, they are the opposite of that, they are a great excuse.  If the Packers lose a close game and their fans say they lost because Aaron Rodgers is hurt, isn’t that a perfectly valid statement?  A fact, really.  Obviously it’s not an excuse you ever want to hear from the actual team because a team wallowing in self-pity is not a team that’s going to win a lot of football games.  But it’s a perfectly legit reason for a team to have a bad night.  The Patriots defense was decimated up front and their offense was without Gronk, one of its best players and it’s emotional spark plug.  Gronk’s value to an Edelman-less offense can’t be overstated. Gronk makes everything work.  He helps the passing game, he helps the running game and he draws defenders away from his teammates.  He exudes a confidence that is infectious.  Almost any game the Patriots play without Gronk and Edelman is a game they can lose.

-The X-Factor:  This final category encapsulates all the random unforseen landmines that can pop up during an NFL season.  The “Lawyer Milloy game” we mentioned earlier is a perfect example.  Nobody, including the entire Patriots locker room, could have envisioned that New England would cut one of its starters and team leaders on the eve of the 2003 season and that he would sign with the team they were playing week one.  Last Monday the Patriots were playing their fourth road game in five weeks including a two-week high altitude trek through Denver and Mexico City.  That would wear on any team.  Compounding the problem, that fourth game was being played in a stadium that has been a proverbial house of horrors for New England.  That’s a bad spot for any team.

For those of you keeping score at home, that’s five boxes checked for the Patriots.  Any one of the above five factors could trigger an “exception to the rule” game and the Patriots were dealing with a perfect storm of all five.  You could argue that the most surprising thing about Monday night was not the final score but the size of the point spread (New England -11).

Whatever the reason for the 2017 Dolphins suddenly looking like the 1972 Dolphins and the Patriots looking like some cheap impostor, it is irrelevant.  None of it matters now.  The Patriots have what amounts to a winner-take-all game in Pittsburgh and if they take care of business the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxboro.  If not, the Patriots have to find a way to win a big road game in the playoffs, something they haven’t done in over a decade.  Either way, come Sunday afternoon you can expect a much better effort from the defending champs than what you saw Monday night, as they put yet another “exception to the rule” game in their rearview mirror.

Game Notes

-Catch me if you can:  Did you see Kenyan Drake run past Elandon Roberts like Usain Bolt running past a mailbox.  What’s that going to look like when it’s Le’veon Bell?  I imagine Belichick is hard at work in his lair trying to solve that quandary.

-Show me the money:  It was another tough game for Butler who has seemed out of sorts for much of the season.  Then after the game he had an odd moment where he retweeted a graphic showing how effective Jay Cutler was against the Patriots’ blitz.  The retweet was then un-tweeted (de-tweeted?) and Butler would later call the whole thing a “misunderstanding”.  Normally a guy in a contract year plays his best football, something the Patriots might have been banking on when they didn’t give him a contract in the offseason.  As a general principle that might be correct but for this player New England might have played this one wrong.  Butler has not been himself all year and you have to wonder if it’s because of the money.

-Cutler’s numbers against the Patriots’ blitz: 16-20, 186 yards, two TDs, QB rating: 138.8

-Staying Power:  A lot of panic talk swirled around the NFL after Brady’s lousy performance, with much of it centered around his stamina.  Last year Brady had the benefit of a four-game deflategate vacation to keep his legs and arm fresh for the playoffs.  This year with Brady playing a full slate of games some have been speculating that his body might not be up to the task.  Maybe it’s something worth monitoring but it seems a little premature to express concern for a guy that is the current favorite to win the MVP.

-Tommy Two Times:  Monday night was the first time in 30 games that Brady has thrown two interceptions in a game.  The first pick was a bad decision but the second interception was spectacular play by cornerback Xavien Howard who closed late to rob Brandin Cooks of a big gain.

-Jordan Richards whiff on a 3rd down sack pretty much sums up his entire sorry career with New England.  A terrible draft pick.

-Mastering the master:  It’s something we haven’t said often in the last 17 years but Adam Gase completely out-coached Bill Belichick monday night.  Gase took away the middle of the field for New England’s receivers, effectively pressured Brady with well timed blitzes and repeatedly found creative ways to get the ball to his playmakers.

-If the Patriots lose to the Steelers and the Jaguars beat the Texans, the Patriots will be the number three seed.

-Jimmy G to the rescue:  If New England wants to crawl out of that three seed and re-secure a first round bye they might need some help from an old friend.  The Jaguars travel to San Francisco week 16 to face the undefeated Jimmy Garoppolo.

-Jay Cutler still sucks.

-Planes, trains and automobiles:  The NFL didn’t do the Patriots any favors with the scheduling.  A lot of people don’t know this but it is rare for a team to be on the road for Monday night football then on the road again the following week.  In fact, it has only happened three time in the last two years and the results are not pretty.  Teams in that spot are 0-3 the last two years, losing by an average margin of 15 points.

-The Patriots are an inexplicable 20-6 with Gronkowski out of the lineup.

-Felix and Oscar:  I love MNF play-by-play guy Sean McDonough, and analyst Jon Gruden has his moments, but they are broadcasting’s odd couple.  Whenever they’re together on screen it feels like both of them are really uncomfortable which, for the viewer, is like watching one of those really awkward scenes from an episode of ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm’.

-Yankee doodle dandy:  Speaking of Gruden, his high praise of the military during the game followed by the proud declaration, “It’s great to be an American” felt awfully scripted.

-Arrested development:  Interesting move by the Patriots to sign WR Kenny Britt off the scrap heap.  Britt is a tall fast receiver that can take the top of the defense and last year registered a career high 1002 yards receiving.  He also continues New England’s tradition of acquiring a late-season derelict for the playoffs as Britt has had numerous run-ins with law enforcement.  The signing also required a change of heart from Bob Kraft who shot down the very idea of signing Britt when the Patriots hosted him for a visit three years ago, “We won’t be signing him.  That won’t happen”, said Kraft at the time.  My favorite nugget from his arrest record is that he was arrested at a car wash.  What could possibly happen at the local Scrub-a-dub that would have you leaving there in handcuffs?  To Britt’s credit he has been clean since 2013.

-Trick or treat:  No update on disgraced Dolphins coach Chris Foerster, who resigned in October after a video surfaced that he sent to an alleged hooker showing him proudly snorting some yayo.  It was a regrettable moment for all involved but at least it produced some classic Halloween costumes.