By Michael Vallee
OK, so it’s not the sexiest opponent the NFC could muster for the final game of the 2016 season. The Falcons franchise conjures up memories of the Patriots opposition in Super Bowl XXXVIII, the Carolina Panthers, another AFC South franchise with minimal history and zero titles. While the Falcons have been around significantly longer than the Panthers they haven’t exactly accomplished much in that time, appearing in just one Super Bowl, an embarrassing blowout at the hands of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXXIII.
Despite the lack of buzz, this matchup has the potential for some serious on-field fireworks with both teams led by quarterbacks most likely to finish first and second in the MVP voting. Vegas agrees, setting the under/over at a Super Bowl record 58.5. And though New England holds a significant edge in the unofficial category of franchise cache, both teams enter the Super Bowl white hot, each coming off back-to-back playoff blowouts. On paper this could be a good one. Both teams are almost mirror images of each other: Solid running games, dominant passing attacks, talented but unheralded defenses and defensive oriented head coaches with rising star coordinators running the show on offense.
The similarities end there. The Patriots hail from New England, a hot bed of professional sports where people follow the four local pro teams like a religion. The Falcons are from Atlanta, where the relevance of pro sports ranks somewhere between NASCAR and the latest episode of American Ninja Warrior. Culture in Boston might consist of a night at the Pops, followed by cocktails in the Back Bay. Culture in Atlanta is a 2-for-1 wings special at Hooters topped off with drinks in the champagne room at The Cheetah. Boston’s roots are embedded deep in American history. Atlanta is one of these southern cities that looks like it could have been built 20 years ago. Boston has snow and sarcasm. Atlanta has smoldering humidity and southern charm.
The real difference, however, lies in the historical context of Super Bowl LI. New England will be playing in a record ninth Super Bowl, Atlanta, as stated above, in just its second. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is on the precipice of coaching immortality as he tries to win an unprecedented 5th Super Bowl championship. Dan Quinn is just trying to get his foot in history’s door. Brady is also at destiny’s doorstep as he tries to become the first quarterback ever to win five Super Bowl rings. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is simply trying to join that exclusive list of quarterbacks that have led their team to football’s summit. One QB trying to further cement his legacy, another trying to launch his legacy. These differences lie at the heart of this matchup. It is the impossible to ignore subplot that will define much of the post game dialogue. Will the big bad bullies from New England add to their burgeoning trophy case or will the upstarts from Atlanta establish themselves as the new team to the block. One franchise chasing history, the other chasing relevancy.
As Bart Scott once shouted, “Can’t wait!”
-”Hey Google, who will win the Super Bowl?”: Ask the average Patriots fan about this game and they see it playing out in one of two ways:
Scenario One: New England in a blow out. The seasoned Patriots are just too much for the inexperienced Falcons who will be overwhelmed by both New England’s talent and football’s brightest spotlight.
Scenario Two: Ryan and the Falcon’s offense continue to thrive and light up the Patriots largely untested defense but Atlanta has no answers for Brady and New England wins in a shootout.
Both are valid scenarios but it would be a mistake to dismiss the Falcons altogether, so let’s not fall into that trap and instead make argument for the other side.
The Case for Atlanta: In this scenario, the secondary targets could be key. Learning from the hard lessons of his last Super Bowl against New England, Dan Quinn clamps down on Brady favorite Julian Edelman, and forces New England to turn to its less explosive and less reliable second and third options. The Patriots, with Gronkowski hurt and Edelman neutralized, lack explosiveness and are forced to settle for long, time-consuming drives and red zone field goals. They still get their points but the Falcons defense is able to keep the number under 30. On defense, look for New England to limit any impact Julio Jones will have on this game. Belichick has a long established history of taking away what a team does best, and Jones should be no exception. But the Patriots linebackers and cornerbacks not named Malcolm Butler, are suspect at best, and this is where Atlanta attacks. With New England’s D focused on Jones, Ryan has the potential to shred the Patriots with a steady diet of secondary options, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel and Devonta Freeman. The Falcons put up a big number and win the game because Ryan outscores Brady.
-Fool’s Gold: You’re going to hear a lot about the advantage the #1 defense has over the #1 offense in a Super Bowl. In the previous seven such matchups the teams with the #1 defense are 6-1…..but don’t be fooled. For all the progress they’ve made, New England’s #1 defense is not in the same league as the ‘14 Seahawks, the ‘90 Giants or any of the other #1 defenses on that list. In reality this year’s Patriots D is a lot more like the #1 rated ‘89 Broncos, a talented but overrated defense whose ranking was aided by their schedule. That Broncos team famously lost Super Bowl XXIV 55-10 to the 49ers in the most lopsided game in Super Bowl history. Matt Ryan is no Joe Montana and certainly nobody expects that kind of score on Sunday but that Super Bowl should be a cautionary tale for those expecting New England’s #1 D to roll to victory.
-I Bet Scott Hanson Knows This: Stopping opponents in the red zone could be key on Sunday and the Patriots hold a significant statistical edge in this area. The Patriots are 7th in red zone defense, allowing opponents in the end zone 50% of the time. The Falcons are dead last in the NFL, allowing a touchdown 72% of the time.
-Total Package: A lot is being made of Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing attack but there are two other aspects of their offense that are impressive: running the ball and turnovers. They are 5th in the NFL in rushing and have only turned the ball over 11 times in 18 games.
-Exception to the Rule: This has been the definition of a career year for Matt Ryan. Entering this season his career QB rating was 90.9 and his career yards-per-attempt was 7.2. In 2016 those numbers were 117.1 and 9.3 respectively. Last year, Ryan’s first with Kyle Shanahan, he threw for only 21 touchdowns and had 16 interceptions. This year he threw 38 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions. If this was baseball and he was a home run hitter can you imagine what the speculation would be.
-Strike Fast, Strike Hard, No Mercy Sir!: An interesting early chess match will take place Sunday on Atlanta’s opening drive. Falcons OC Kyle Shanahan must be some kind of wizard at scripting plays. Atlanta has scored an opening drive touchdown in each of their last eight games and during those eight drives Ryan completed an eye-popping 85% of his passes. Eight offensive series, particularly long scoring drives, roughly equals the length of a standard NFL game. Ryan’s stats on those eight scoring drives: 34-40, 374 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, QB Rating: 145.2
It will be fascinating to see what Belichick does to try and stop this trend. You know Belichick and DC Matt Patricia are well aware of Atlanta’s early game and success and will make it a priority to prevent that first touchdown. This could develop into a point of pride for both coaching staffs so don’t be surprised if you see both teams try some new wrinkles on Atlanta’s first possession. It will also be interesting to see if the Falcon’s reputation for early game success influences Belichick’s decision to defer if he wins the coin toss. Does Belichick shy away and just give the ball to Brady and try to grab the first score, or does he say, “F You”, give the ball to Atlanta’s strongest unit and dare them to score?
-Vegas, baby, Vegas: It’s hard to find much of a ground swell for picking Atlanta in this game yet the Patriots were installed as surprisingly low favorites at -3. And perhaps even more surprising, the line has not moved. We all know betting action determines the line but with New England such an obvious pick at -3 it makes you wonder if there is something else going on here. One theory revolves around the popularity of Atlanta Falcons futures bets in the offseason. Last week we wrote that their odds to win the Super Bowl reached 100 to 1 but I have since learned the number actually went as high as 150 to 1. Vegas is going to take a beating if Atlanta wins this game and there is speculation that the low line is meant to drive action to the Patriots to hedge the sports book’s losses.
-As for the under/over consider this: 16 of Atlanta’s 18 games this season have gone over.
-Picking Winners: The Patriots have 30 new players on their roster that did not play in their last Super Bowl TWO YEARS AGO. That level of turnover and success is astounding and a real testament to the work that Belichick has done as a GM. And while Belichick’s coaching tree has had very limited success, his GM tree is looking a little stronger with former proteges Thomas Dimitroff and Scott Pioli running the show in Atlanta. Dimitroff, who is in his ninth year as the Falcon’s GM, deserves the lion’s share of the credit, the fact that Atlanta has 12 rookies on its roster and six starters on defense that are in their first or second year, speaks volumes of the job the former Patriot executive has done.
As for Pioli, he is a bit of a Johnny-come-lately having only been hired as assistant GM in 2014. Pioli is trying to rebuild his brand after a disastrous stint in Kansas City. His failures with the Chiefs are outlined well in this old article by ESPN’s Jeffri Chadiha but here’s a taste of the dysfunction: “Published reports accuse him of lecturing staffers for not picking up candy wrappers in the hallways and chafing at the way assistant coaches park in the team’s lot.”
If any of that is true it’s a bad look for Pioli.
-Life before Tinder: You can’t talk about a Falcons Super Bowl without talking about the one-man cautionary tale that is Eugene “I wasn’t wrong, but I wasn’t righteous” Robinson. Robinson, a former safety for the Falcons, is infamous for getting arrested for soliciting a prostitute on the eve of the Falcons/Broncos Super Bowl. Adding to his infamy was the fact that he received the Bart Starr Award just a few hours before his arrest. The award is for those “exemplifying outstanding leadership and character on and off the field”. Ouch. Also, his wife and kids were staying at a nearby hotel when he was arrested. He also was burned for an 80-yard touchdown the next day. Yeah, Eugene had a tough weekend. Today he works as a radio analyst for the Carolina Panthers and last year addressed the team to tell them how NOT to behave during Super Bowl week. Hopefully the players didn’t need his prostitution pep talk to know that the night before the biggest professional day of their lives is probably not the best time to offer random women cash for sex.
-Speaking of prostitution and the Super Bowl, S.I. ran an interesting article this week declaring that the big game’s role in driving sex-trafficking may be overstated.
-Politburo: The NFL embarrassed itself when it scrubbed all references to “Donald Trump” and “Roger Goodell” from official transcripts of Super Bowl week interviews.
-The Last of the Mohicans: The Patriots making it to their seventh Super Bowl has unleashed the anti-Boston trolls. Remember former ESPN personality Rob Parker who was once fired by the four-letter network for calling RG III a “cornball brother”, whatever the hell that means? He recently appeared on FS 1’s ‘Undisputed’ and went on a Boston-is-racist rant where at one point he declared that Boston is so racist they can’t even admit that Native Americans were not behind the Boston Tea Party. What?!? Where the hell did that come from? Does this dim bulb actually think Bostonians sit around in bars arguing with anybody that dares to exonerate the Native Americans role in the Tea Party? This guy has to get out more. I don’t know about you, but when I go out with my friends 99% of what we talk about is sports and girls, with maybe a little politics thrown into the mix. Not a lot of historical Native American talk. And is Parker aware that Boston is probably the only city in America with an actual Tea Party museum? It’s not a good sign when the worst thing you can say about a city’s racism is over 200 years old and complete bullshit.
In that same appearance he also compared Tom Brady to Lance Armstrong, because systematically manipulating and circumventing the PED testing process for yourself and your entire team and then trying to destroy the lives of anybody that dares to speak the truth is exactly the same as maybe, or maybe not, letting a little air out of a football.
-Brady Wasn’t the only one Whose Balls were Deflated: When the media isn’t taking pot shots at Boston expect a lot of Patriots trolling over Deflategate. SB Nation’s Ryan Van Bibber got an early start with perhaps the worst sports headline ever: “How to talk to your children about Deflategate”
Because he invoked the children, whom have suffered enough, let’s hope his wife got involved in this.
Van Bibber: Hey honey did you see the headline for my new column?
Wife: No, what is it?
Van Bibber: “How to talk to your children about Deflategate”.
Wife: Your next column should be, “How to talk to your children about having a father that is a namby pamby weirdo”
Van Bibber: That’s hurtful.
Wife: I should have married that lawyer I dated in college.
-SB Nation wasn’t the only one to dip their toe into these embarrassing waters. The Atlanta Journal Constitution ran an article titled, “What to tell your kids about Deflategate?”, committing the dual sin of being both lame and unoriginal.
–Trollin, trollin, trollin: SB Nation is having a strange month as the above column comes on the heels of the Charlotte Wilder piece declaring that the Patriots, “Have a Trump problem” because a handful of her liberal friends don’t root for the team anymore due to the franchises perceived alignment with the controversial new President. I’m thinking anyone that stopped cheering for the Patriots during a Super Bowl year because Brady, Belichick and Kraft might or might not have voted for Trump wasn’t much of football fan in the first place. Just a hunch.
–Move on, Nothing to see Here: Count me as one of the few people that has no interest in the alleged awkward Goodell/Brady moment that could take place if New England wins and Brady is named Super Bowl MVP. What exactly are people expecting, that Brady will grab the trophy and smash Goodell in the face? When it comes to public moments Goodell and Brady are two of the most reserved, cautious and image-conscious individuals around so you can expect a boring and uneventful trophy presentation if the exchange does happen.
-Mr Integrity: And can we please stop saying Goodell must hate New England because of how he treated the team during Deflategate. Deflategate was about two things, jealousy and power. The owners, enraged about the Patriots allegedly getting off easy for Spygate, pressured Goodell to lower the boom when all the PSI nonsense surfaced. Fueled by a palpable jealousy, the owners saw an opportunity and pounced. They ignored all logic and fairness, not to mention damage to the league and its brand, and demanded that Goodell come down hard on New England. Then, when New England refused to admit wrongdoing and Brady openly defied Goodell, the case became about the power of the commissioner, and as we all know now, that is not something Goodell or the owners take lightly. So, is Roger Goodell a good commissioner? No. Is he a petty, shallow, power-hungry dick that appears incapable of showing human emotion? Yes. But he doesn’t hate the Patriots.
-Everybody’s Heard about the Bird: That said, Patriots fans will always hate Goodell and that hatred manifested itself nicely in this Patriots mural by a professional painting company in Rhode Island.
-Is There a Lawyer in the House: Last week I was watching TV and saw a commercial urging NFL players to call the number posted regarding concussion issues. I imagine Goodell and the owners can’t be too happy about an ad like this running during the ramp up to the Super Bowl. I talked to a lawyer with a firm that is registering NFL players to be eligible for the one billion concussion settlement that was upheld by an appeals court last April, and he said the deadline for former players to apply for eligibility is August 7th, so you can expect to see more of these ads over the next six months. Sorry, Roger.
-Houston’s weather at kickoff is supposed to be partly cloudy, in the 70s and with little chance of precipitation. That’s a fancy way of saying it ain’t gonna rain. If they don’t open the roof for this Bowl then it’s time to start calling these retractable-roof stadiums what they really are: domes.
-We’re Gonna need a Bigger Boat: Should Patriots fans be nervous about reports that Belichick’s famously named powerboat, VI Rings, has been donated to a nonprofit sailing center in Rhode Island? Could the future Hall-of-Fame coach be hinting at retirement? Unlikely. Assuming he hasn’t lost his passion for the sea maybe Belichick is simply looking to upgrade from his 24-foot Grady-White speed boat to something bigger. Perhaps something big enough to accommodate the slightly longer VII Rings.