By Ryan Barry
NEFJ Staff

Kickoff: The UMass Minutemen head to Starkville, Mississippi on Saturday afternoon to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in what will be their second of three SEC match-ups this season. On the heels of their 35-7 win over Wagner this past weekend, the Minutemen hope to take that momentum in Davis Wade Stadium where a reeling Bulldogs team hopes to get their season back on track.

1st Down: It was a fairly underwhelming game for redshirt senior quarterback Taisun Phommachanh (126-for-221, 1,541-yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs; 101 carries, 282-yards, 3 TDs) this past Saturday. His two rushing touchdowns and one throwing touchdown were a highlight, but missing a few easy throws and a horrendous interception on the first play of the game left a lot to be desired. Luckily he’ll have an opportunity this weekend to take on one of the worst passing defenses in the FBS. Through eight games this season the Bulldogs have allowed an average of 264.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 113th in the nation. Against a comparable Toledo team early in September the Bulldogs suffered a 41-17 home loss and surrendered 285 passing yards and three touchdowns. With the emergence of sophomore wide receiver TY Harding (11 receptions, 247-yards, 4 TDs) and the continued stellar play of graduate receiver Jakobie Keeney-James (32 receptions, 566-yards, 3 TDs), UMass should have a decent window to throw the ball.

2nd Down: The Minutemen had one of their better performances running the ball last Saturday in spite of a season full of struggles in the backfield. With the 91st ranked rushing attack in the nation, UMass hasn’t been much of a threat when running the ball, so regardless of their opponents being in the FCS it was still a solid performance. Phommachanh is no longer the team’s leading rusher as has been the case for most of the season, with sophomore running back CJ Hester (68 carries, 287 yards, 2 TDs) now leading the pack. Even more so for the Bulldogs, their struggles against the run have been glaring. Allowing an average of 213.2 yards per game, good for 125th in the FBS and just nine spots from last place (Kent State), the unit has been battered for most of the season by opposing backs. Of course, going up against the likes of Texas, Georgia, and Texas A&M for consecutive weeks will do that, but it’s still noteworthy. They were slightly better against the run versus Toledo, giving up around 169 yards on the ground in the loss, but regardless it’s a tired crew that UMass could take advantage of.

3rd Down: Mississippi State has been far more effective on offense so far this season. After losing Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen to a season ending shoulder injury in September, the Bulldogs have gone with freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. (83-for-145, 1,101-yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs). The first year signal caller has gotten better each week, with his most impressive feats coming from two straight weeks of three touchdown performances against Georgia and Texas A&M. Junior wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. (52 receptions, 636-yards, 5 TDs) has been outstanding for the Bulldogs, with three of his eight games having gone for at least 100 receiving yards. Junior tight end Seydou Traore (26 receptions, 301-yards) has been one of the more consistent players at that position in the SEC as well. The Minutemen are an impressive sixth in the nation in passing yards allowed, having given up an average of just 157.5 yards per game. If they are to keep the moniker of having one of the nation’s better secondary cores, they’ll need to do it against Van Buren Jr.

4th Down: Similar to the Minutemen, the Bulldogs struggle to run the ball. Unlike UMass who utilizes the running ability of Phommachanh, Van Buren Jr. isn’t known to take off with the ball, leaving the carries almost exclusively to the MSU backfield. Senior Davon Booth (93 carries, 396-yards, 2 TDs) and junior Johnnie Daniels (80 carries, 354-yards, 2 TDs) have both featured thus far in 2024 with neither separating oneself as the true feature back. Booth has gotten more of the carries and operates as a passing catching threat with four touchdown receptions, whereas Daniels is more between the tackles. The Minutemen are 100th in the FBS in rushing defense and have struggled at times this season. Surrendering 162-yards to Wagner was more than expected, especially in the second half when it felt like they were picking up chunk play after chunk play. UMass can’t afford to get beat in the run game this week, especially against a duo that has yet to fully prove themselves.

Extra Point: Despite the Minutemen’s 0-2 lifetime record against the Bulldogs, both games were incredibly close losses both home and away. In their 47-25 loss at Gillette Stadium in 2016, the Minutemen led 14-13 going into halftime. Even after the Bulldogs scored to get things going in the third quarter, UMass battled right back to take a 21-20 lead with lefty Andrew Ford at the helm. Unfortunately the Bulldogs outscored UMass 27-14 the rest of the way due to costly turnovers and big plays from MSU’s Nick Fitzgerald. In a rematch the following season in Starkville the Bulldogs walked away 34-23 winners over the Minutemen, but similar to their 2016 contest it was UMass who took a 20-13 lead going into halftime. A 21-3 scoreline in the second half helped Mississippi State secure the win, with inconsistent football dooming the Minutemen to a second straight loss.

Final Drive: It’s funny when a fanbase thinks the same as one another and isn’t willing to accept “believe me” advice from the other side. With the way 2024 has gone for Mississippi State, many fans have said that they could easily slip up again this week and lose to UMass. Whereas, for many Minutemen fans, there isn’t a chance in hell that they think this weekend will be an upset win. Sure, some might think they’ll cover the spread, but a win on the road? No way. With both fan bases feeling dejected it’s important to try and look at the body of work more than what your gut is telling you. Sure, UMass blew out Wanger last week, but they struggled in the second half and didn’t appear to fix a lot of problems they’ve had all season. Mississippi State has looked somewhat better over time, especially as Van Buren Jr. has gotten more confident. People may balk at the 18.5 line with MSU having a single win, but truthfully it’s right where it needs to be. UMass could keep it close in the first half, but it’s going to be all Bulldogs by the end.

Prediction: Mississippi State 37, UMass 17