Image courtesy of ESPN

By Ryan Barry
NEFJ Staff

Kickoff: The UMass Minutemen (1-4) will travel to DeKalb, Illinois to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies (2-2) in their fifth and final match-up against a future Mid-American Conference foe. Reeling from a 23 – 20 overtime loss to Miami (OH) last weekend, the Minutemen hope to turn things around before they take on three SEC teams in their next five games.

1st Down: The UMass offense remained up and down last week. Redshirt senior quarterback Taisun Phommachanh (89-for-151, 1,017-yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions; 73 carries, 226-yards, one touchdown) led the team with 80 rushing yards, but had a completion percentage of just 41%. His lack of consistency week to week throwing the ball is frustrating, as is the lack of emergence from several key pass catchers. Graduate tight end Dominick Mazotti (three receptions, 25-yards) has yet to reach expectations from his arrival this offseason, and graduate wide receiver Sterling Galban (14 receptions, 105-yards) has yet to have a breakout game as well. Luckily for the Minutemen, at least one of their pass catching transfers, Jakobie Keeney-James (20 receptions, 406-yards, three touchdowns), has been outstanding this season, giving them a lone star in an otherwise dark sky. For a group that’s already struggled, the task doesn’t get any easier against a Huskies defense that’s ranked 10th in the FBS in passing yards allowed, averaging just 145.5 yards per game. Senior safety Nate Valcarcel (17 total tackles) is active throughout the secondary, while sophomore cornerbacks Jacob Finley (seven total tackles, four pass deflections) and Amariyun Knighten (four total tackles, one interception) are strong on the wings. The task will be tall for a Minutemen passing game looking for a breakthrough.

2nd Down: As impressive as it is for Phommachanh to be the team’s leading rusher, it also highlights a problem in the UMass backfield. It feels like nearly every game there’s a new rusher that has emerged to be the feature back, whether that be by design or the inability to find consistency. After the Central Connecticut win two weeks ago it felt like redshirt sophomore Jackson Paradis (17 carries, 59-yards, one touchdown) was going to see more touches after a solid game, yet only had one carry last weekend. Redshirt junior Jalen John (60 carries, 210-yards, one touchdown; 13 receptions, 81-yards) had a season low eight carries on Saturday, and despite being the starting back nearly every game, has yet to cement his spot at the top of the depth chart. Unfortunately again for UMass, the Huskies have had success defending against the run as well. Allowing just 89.2 yards per game, good for 17th in the FBS, they’ve made it incredibly difficult to move the ball on the ground. In Northern Illinois’ statement win against a ranked Notre Dame team a few weeks ago, the Fighting Irish had 125 rushing yards, with run-first quarterback Riley Leonard limited to just 18 rushing yards. In their seven point loss last weekend to NC State, the Wolfpack managed just 67 rushing yards. With junior defensive linemen Roy Williams (15 total tackles, two sacks) and Skyler Gill-Howard (13 total tackles manning the front lines, along with a deep linebacking crew, the Minutemen may struggle mightily to run the ball.

3rd Down: The continued strong suit of this UMass team is their defense, which ranks 34th in the FBS. They still struggle with giving up big plays, as was seen last week in their loss to Miami (OH) where they allowed the Redhawks to march into field goal territory with just under two minutes left to tie the game. Still, they’ve improved each week, which will be highly needed come Saturday afternoon at Huskie Stadium. Quarterback Ethan Hampton (65-for-111, 879-yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions) has been a steady presence for Northern Illinois so far this season. While not a threat to run the ball, he has a decent arm and isn’t afraid to throw the ball. Despite no turnovers in his first two games against Western Illinois and Notre Dame, he’s thrown three interceptions in his last two, which were both losses against Buffalo and NC State. His completion percentage against FBS teams has been suboptimal as well, hovering right around 51%. Part of the reason for this could be his receiving room, with senior tight end Grayson Barnes (11 receptions, 141-yards, one touchdown) and sophomore wide receiver Cam Thompson (nine receptions, 129-yards, two touchdowns) being his best wide out options. The Minutemen secondary had another interception last week, and should be able to create havoc and snag another this weekend as well.

4th Down: Where the Huskies have shined on offense has been in the run game. Senior running back Antario Brown (80 carries, 355-yards, two touchdowns; eight receptions, 204-yards, one touchdown) is the best offensive weapon that Northern Illinois has to offer. As the leading rusher and pass catching threat, Brown can seemingly do it all, especially with senior Gavin Williams (41 carries, 182-yards) there to compliment him. Brown has made a name for himself in both the Notre Dame and NC State match-ups where he averaged 106.5 rushing yards per game. The Minutemen will definitely have their hands full with Brown, but have continued to cement their identity as a run stopping defense. Allowing 120.8 rushing yards per game, good for 47th in the FBS, UMass has kept opposing running backs for the most part at bay despite an undersized defensive line. Senior linebacker Jalen Stewart (23 total tackles, 0.5 sacks) had one of his best games of his career last Saturday, making a tremendous impact against the run. With graduate defensive lineman Etinose Ruben (14 total tackles, one sack) continuing to improve every week along with the rest of the defensive line, the Minutemen should hopefully make for a tough afternoon against Brown and the Huskies.

Extra Point: The Huskies are one of the few MAC teams that UMass has never played since their departure from the conference in 2016. The only times that these two have met came while they were conference members with Northern Illinois walking away winners on both occasions. The games were barely competitive each time, as the Huskies blanked the Minutemen 63 – 0 in their 2012 match-up in DeKalb, and followed it up with another 63 – 19 win at Gillette Stadium in 2013. Northern Illinois legend Jordan Lynch was the quarterback for both of those games, posting up big numbers on the ground in each occasion.

Final Drive: As crushing as last week’s loss was for the Minutemen, the team showed a lot of fight against a team that was in the MAC championship just a season ago. The question now becomes how much did the crushing defeat hurt the team’s already battered psyche. With four tough losses already on the books, and a remaining schedule that only gets harder from here, what state will the Minutemen be in? It’s difficult to say. There’s no reason they can’t cover the spread, especially with the way the defense has been playing, and it’s not exactly like the Huskies have a highly explosive offense. The question will come down to how well the Minutemen can move the ball on offense. With high winds expected against an already impressive secondary, it’ll be interesting to see what Phommachanh is capable of. If he struggles to throw the ball and the run game remains stagnant, this could be a frustrating afternoon for the Minutemen.

Prediction: Northern Illinois 27, UMass 13