By Ryan Barry
NEFJ Staff
Kickoff: The Liberty Flames travel to Amherst on Saturday afternoon to take on the UMass Minutemen. After suffering a 45-20 loss at Mississippi State two weeks ago, the Minutemen come off their second bye week of the season hoping some rest can help their final three games of the season finish on a high note.
1st Down: The news of redshirt senior quarterback Taisun Phommachahn (132-for-234, 1,590-yards, 8 TDs, 6 INTs; 107 carries, 317-yards, 3 TDs) being sidelined the rest of the season came as somewhat of a surprise this week. The veteran signal caller has battled injuries throughout his time at UMass, though no clear injury was identified by head coach Don Brown this week. Whether or not Phommachanh on the sidelines is a result of a lingering health issue or wanting to get a look at the team’s younger quarterbacks remains to be seen. Either way, neither redshirt freshman Ahmad Haston or freshman AJ Hairston have been named the starter come kickoff. Haston figures to be the favorite given his experience from last season and being the first quarterback off the bench in mop up duty against Mississippi State. However, Hairston looked decent in his first action as a Minuteman, so perhaps he may see more of the field than is expected. Liberty are 40th in the nation in passing yards allowed but struggle at times against mobile quarterbacks, so using Haston and his impressive dual-threat abilities may be the Minutemen’s best option.
2nd Down: The Minutemen have put together back-to-back games of solid performances from their running backs. Redshirt junior Brandon Campbell (51 carries, 202-yards, 3 TDs) has rushed for over 60-yards and at least one touchdown in each of these games, and could perhaps be starting to feel more comfortable in a UMass uniform. Sophomore CJ Hester (81 carries, 349-yards, 2 TDs) has similarly been carrying the ball well, and has become the starting back in the past few games. Lacking a complementary running game has hurt the Minutemen thus far in 2024, but if these two can continue to find their footing it could bode well for next season. Liberty is 59th in the nation in run defense, giving up an average of 140.9 yards per game. Against a struggling Middle Tennessee team the Flames surrendered just 88 total rushing yards, though the week before against a solid Jacksonville State team gave up a whopping 363 rushing yards. The Minutemen should fall somewhere in between that number but trending more so towards the lower end unless major strides were made in the bye week.
3rd Down: Redshirt junior quarterback Kaidon Salter (120-for-199, 1,581-yards, 13 TDs, 3 INTs; 87 carries, 440-yards, 4 TDs) has been a driving force for the Flames once again this season. Rumored to be off to the transfer portal in search for bigger pastures in the offseason, Liberty scored a massive win by keeping the quarterback that led them to a perfect regular season record in 2023. While not on the same world ending path as last year, Salter has once again been one of the best players on offense. The Flames wide receiver room has faced a few injuries this season, but junior Elijah Canion (20 receptions, 308-yards, 2 TDs) has filled in admirably. If leading senior receiver Treon Sibley (22 receptions, 414-yards, 2 TDs) it’ll give Salter another much needed option. The Minutemen are tenth in the FBS in passing yards allowed but did surrender 222 against a downtrodden Mississippi State passing offense two weeks ago.
4th Down: The strongest component of the Liberty offense this season lies in their run game. The Flames sit seventh in the nation in total rushing offense and are averaging an impressive 242.4 yards per game. Considering the Minutemen defense ranks 103rd nationally in total rushing defense, it could be a long afternoon for UMass on Saturday. Senior running back Quinton Cooley (142 carries, 851-yards, 8 TDs) has been a juggernaut thus far in 2024 with six 100+ yard performances in eight games of action. Alongside Salter’s impressive running ability, senior running back Billy Lucas (81 carries, 378-yards, 4 TDs) also packs a punch. The Minutemen surrendered five rushing touchdowns and 241 rushing yards against Mississippi State, so it could be a long afternoon for the UMass defense against this volatile Flames group.
Extra Point: This is the seventh and likely final meeting between the Minutemen and the Flames. While both teams charted the dangerous waters of FBS Independence, Liberty made easy work of UMass to the tune of a 5-1 record. Now with both schools’ conference situations settled for the foreseeable future, it remains to be seen that the two will schedule one another anymore. To say how dominant Liberty has been within this stretch would be an understatement though, with the Flames outscoring the Minutemen by a staggering 320 to 149. That’s a rough average score of 53 to 25, and if you remove the debut 62 – 59 win for UMass in 2018 it gives Liberty a whopping 52 to 17 average score. The sheer fact that the Flames never score fewer than 42 points in a game against the Minutemen is a frightening indictment on the state of UMass football.
Final Drive: The Minutemen’s remaining three games of the season all come against teams that have six or more wins. It was known coming into this season that this back half of the slate would be a gauntlet, but few expected the team to be in as difficult straits as they presently are in. The Flames should do what they usually do to the Minutemen and roll their way towards a massive blowout win. Can they possibly keep it close? Maybe. The last two years under Don Brown have been better against Liberty than the previous few installments, so perhaps after the bye week a new quarterback can do the trick. After all, Liberty did lose to Kennesaw State a few weeks ago. The same Kennesaw State team that just fired their coach and still has just one win on the season against yes, Liberty. If the Minutemen can play their game in the secondary and limit the run game they may have a chance in this, but like nearly every week, it always comes down to a maybe.
Prediction: Liberty 51, UMass 20