The numbers don’t lie. The Patriots offense is historically bad thus far

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 08: New England Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots look on during the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Gillette Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Winslow Townson/Getty Images)

If you thought the Patriots offense was bad last season, it is even worse this season thus far. 

The numbers do not lie. The Patriots are putrid on offense right now and judging by their performance the past two weeks, it doesn’t appear to be getting better.

The raw numbers do not lie. This where the Patriots rank in the NFL in these categories. 

Points per game: 32nd

Yards per game: 26th

Yards per pass attempt: 29th

Yards per rush: 29th

EPA per play: 32nd

Success rate: 30th

EPA per dropback: 32nd

Dropback success rate: 30th

EPA per rush: 32nd

Rush success rate: 29th

The Patriots have only scored 55 points on the season and are Minus-8 in turnover differential through five games. These are historically bad numbers.

So how does offensive coordinator Bull O’Brien fix the mess that is currently the Patriots offense? There is not much he can do. It is hard. You can’t start over with new players so you have to use the ones you have. At best, the Patriots make scheme changes but in the end, it is the same quarterback, same running backs, same receivers and tight ends and same offensive line playing in games. The Patriots need an infusion of talent but that will not happen until the end of the season.

A year ago at this time, the Matt Patricia led offense was averaging 20.6 per game. The 2023 offense under O’Brien is averaging 11.0 points per game. That is historically bad production. Something has to give. 

Unfortunately for O’Brien, non of the players brought in have fit his system thus far. He is going to have to make some adjustments to the scheme and personnel usage otherwise the Patriots are going to continue to struggle offensively. 

Everyone universally applauded O’Brien’s hire in January. It has not worked out so far. Some of it falls on him, some on Bill Belichick and some on the players. Things need to change and fast.

Until that happens, the Patriots offense will continue to play worse than they did last season and that is hard to believe.