By John Sarianides
Super Bowl LI is finally upon us. After two weeks of breaking down the game and talking about it incessantly, it is time to play football. On paper, both of these teams are pretty evenly matched. Even Vegas thinks so. That is why they have installed the Patriots as three point favorites.
Both teams are led by their quarterbacks. Matt Ryan has had a terrific season for the Falcons and will more than likely be tabbed as the league MVP. Tom Brady has also had a great season despite missing the first four games due to suspension. Brady is playing in his seventh Super Bowl.
Winning this game would be monumental for both quarterbacks. For Ryan, it would be his first Super Bowl title and for Brady, it would be his fifth. One of these two quarterbacks is going to make history on Sunday.
Super Bowl LI is more than just about Brady and Ryan. Both teams are well coached and diverse on both sides of the ball. That is what makes this match-up so intriguing.
Here are three keys for each team.
Atlanta Falcons
1. Move Julio Jones Around: The Patriots will double team Julio Jones in some form or another. It is just a matter of the situation and where Jones lines up. The Falcons like to stack their receivers in compressed formations. Look for Atlanta to line Jones up off the ball and motion him a bunch to free him up and prevent New England from consistently bracketing him.
2. Get Consistent Pressure on Brady: If the Falcons don’t get consistent pressure on Tom Brady, they will lose this game. Atlanta must come with base pressure as well as man and zone pressure. Brady has seen everything but the Falcons will have some different looks for him. Dan Quinn cannot just rush four and play Cover or Cover 3 behind it. He needs to get after Brady and trust his corners.
3. Start Fast:The key to beating the Patriots is scoring first and playing with the lead. Atlanta has scored first more than any other team in the league this season. They are going to have to score first in this game if they want to win. They cannot fall behind.
If the Falcons win the coin toss, they should take the ball and try to go down and score. If Atlanta can get the first touchdown, they can dictate the tempo of the game to the Patriots. If this game turns into a shootout, it favors the Falcons.
4. The Moment Can’t Be Too Big for Ryan: Matt Ryan is usually composed and doesn’t get rattled easily but this is the Super Bowl so you never know. The bottom line is this for Ryan. The stage cannot be too big for him. He needs to relax, play his game and orchestrate the Falcons offense. Ryan is the league MVP for a reason. He plays the game at a high level. Pomp and circumstance aside, Ryan has to treat this like another game. He can’t let the pressure get to him.
5. Eric Weems Needs to a Be a Factor in this Game: Field position will be critical in this game. Eric Weems needs to be a factor in this game for Atlanta. If the Falcons are going to win this game, they’ll need to win it in all three phases.
New England Patriots
1. Pass Protection Must Be Good: Atlanta’s front four pressure isn’t great but the Falcons do get pressure when they line Vic Beasley up as a five technique defensive end. The Patriots must account for Beasley and help Nate Solder if he needs it. Atlanta will pressure Brady. The Patriots offensive line must communicate, play well and make sure that Brady doesn’t take hits like he did against Houston.
2. Control the Clock: I would like to see the Patriots come out and try to run the football early in this game. They tried early on in Super Bowl 49 and abandoned the run when they fell behind. It is imperative that New England wins the time of possession in this game. I don’t care how they do it but they need to keep Matt Ryan and the vaunted Falcons offense on the sideline as much as possible.
3. Don’t Over Commit to Jones: Julio Jones might just be the best receiver in the game but the Patriots cannot over commit to him in their coverages. If they decide to bracket him for the entire game, it will create one on one opportunities for Atlanta’s other receivers and their dynamic duo of running backs. I suspect you’ll see Logan Ryan on Jones at times with help from Devin McCourty. You will also see Malcolm Butler goes to his side and play him straight up in man to man in certain situations.
4. The Defensive Line Must Get Pressure: The Patriots defensive line has really struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. Regardless of what front the Patriots are in, they must get consistent pressure from their defensive line. They cannot afford to sell out in this game and blitz six or seven guys. Especially if they want to bracket Jones. Getting a consistent pass rush from the defensive line is paramount for the Patriots in this game.
5. Win the Turnover Battle: Championship games in football are usually determined by which team wins the turnover battle. The Patriots were a +12 in turnover ratio during the regular season so they protect the ball and force turnovers. They are going to need to force turnovers in this game. Extra possessions could come in handy against an Atlanta offense that can score.
Prediction: Patriots 31 Falcons 28: These two teams are evenly matched. Games like this usually come down to a handful of plays. I think the Patriots will makes those plays and that will be the difference in this game. The Patriots will win their fifth Super Bowl in what will be a stressful but entertaining game.