Photo by Aaron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post
The Patriots take on the Denver Broncos on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. They will be facing a back up quarterback in old friend Jarrett Stidham.
Stidham is considered one of the top back ups in the NFL but has taken a regular season snap in over two years. That is a long time in between playing.
Broncos Coach Sean Payton has a week to get him ready and he will do that by running concepts he has run for years. He will simplify things for Stidham and try to get the most out of him.
Here is how Denver will try to make things easy on Stidham and what the Patriots can expect.
Run Game
The Broncos run game has expanded since Payton’s arrival in Denver. He does more with the quarterback run game but I would expect more RPO’s this week with Bo Nix out. I suspect Payton will be more basic with his run game. I would expect a blend of man gap and zone runs. I also think Payton will run the ball off-tackle and outside more. He knows it will be tough sledding inside against Williams, Barmore and Spillane.
Diagrams 1 & 2: Bunch Crunch Toss
Bunch Crunch Toss: Payton has always used compressed formations in his career. More than any other coach from a percentage of usage standpoint. He will get into 12 personnel and run bunch crunch toss as a way to set an edge and get outside on the Patriots defense. Ironically enough, Denver has not run the ball off-tackle or outside this season but this match up dictates that it is better to try and get outside on the Patriots because of how stout they are in the box.
If the Broncos are doing to run inside, they may want to lighten the box. I would expect more more inside zone and duo out of 11 personnel. Denver 9th in the NFL at running at light boxes.
Diagram 3: Inside zone out of 11 personnel
Diagram 4: Duo out of 11 personnel.
Inside Runs: Again, Payton is better off getting the Patriots into their nickel package and running inside the tackles with his sub run game. It will still be a challenge for a Denver running game that has not been great this season. The possibility of getting J.K Dobbins back helps. He was a limited participant on Wednesday and Thursday. Inside zone, duo and Jab Power are all ways to attack the Patriots defense. Not having the threat of the quarterback run game does hurt this offense. Nix manufactured a lot of positive plays for them in the run game.
Diagram 5: Jab Power with built in gift hitch
RPO’s: Stidham played for Gus Malzahn at Auburn so he is used to running RPO’s and the ball handling that goes with it. I would expect a fair amount of RPO’s in this game by the Broncos as they try to take advantage of the Patriots aggressive downhill run fits. Especially on first down and second and third and short.
Passing Game
Payton runs one of the most sophisticated passing games in the NFL. He runs a timing passing game that has some West Coast elements to it. He also utilizes a lot of compressed formations to create separation and space for his receivers.
When he was in New Orleans, the Saints had one of the top passing offenses in the league. It helped that he had Drew Brees. Stidham is no Drew Brees but he can make plays in the passing game at all three levels.
Payton is going to have to simplify things for him and get the ball out of his hands in order to negate the Patriots pass rush. Here are some ways he can do it.
Diagrams 6 & 7: Compress to create space throwing the ball
I love using compressed formations in the passing game and I have had a lot of success with them in my career as an offensive coach. Compressed formations are especially effective against teams that like to blitz and sim pressure because they force the secondary to play off. The rub releases also create instant separation and allow your receivers easy access to space so they can make plays.
Diagrams 8,9, 10 & 11: Play-Action
Assuming Denver can establish its running game early, expect to see a heavy dose of play-action. One of the best ways to help an inexperienced or back up quarterback is to run play-action. It control first and second level defenders, it allows receivers to get open and it layers the passing game which allows the quarterback to read high to low. You can also cut the field in half for the quarterback and make the read easy.
Diagrams 12 & 13: Bootlegs
I would expect Payton to move the pocket for Stidham a fair amount in this game. It is an easy way to get him away from pressure, give him a run pass option and layer routes for him. Again. It is important that the Broncos simplify the game for him.
Diagrams 14, 15 and 16: Quick passing game
The Broncos will be looking to get the ball out quick as much as possible in the passing game. One of the easiest and most tried and true ways to do it is by throwing three step passes. This is especially true on first down and short distance downs. Throwing on first down will be a big key in this game for Denver.
The Patriots defense will have an inherent advantage in this game facing Stidham. Don’t be fooled however. Payton is a good coach and he will have him ready. The question is, can he get enough out of him to beat the Patriots in a playoff game? We will find out on Sunday.