Final Four week is upon us.
Some teams will begin punching their tickets to Super Bowls on Thursday night, while most will do so Friday and Saturday. Here’s who we like in each game this weekend to set up the matchups at Gillette the week after Thanksgiving…
DIVISION 1
Andover v. St. John’s Prep/Needham v. Xaverian
Stone: Taking Prep (31-14) and Needham (27-20) in D1. I haven’t picked against SJP all season after sort of dismissing them early last year and I’m not doing it now. Saw the Eagles against BC High and after a slow start, they flipped the switch quicker than you can blink. They can score in an instant and have a very good defense. As for Needham, it has that “special season” feel and I don’t think it ends this weekend. This is going to be a dogfight and might be a bit more low-scoring than some would think. The Rockets have their hands full with Hasselbeck, but defense and the ability to run the ball wins championships and Needham has one of the best defenses I’ve seen this year and the running game to match.
Sarianides: I am going with Xaverian and St. John’s Prep. Both teams can run the football and they can control the line of scrimmage. Xaverian’s passing game is the best of any team left in the D1 Final Four and could be the difference this weekend and beyond.
Kurkjian: I feel like we are destined for a Prep-Xaverian state final, preceded by the Thanksgiving game between the two.
Amaral: I have St. John’s Prep winning 28-14 and Xaverian winning 24-21. I can’t bet against Brian St. Pierre in any big game. The Prep is the top program in the state right now. They continue their winning ways. Needham’s Tate Hoffmeister may be the best running back in the MIAA. He only should keep Needham competitive. I’m expecting this to be a closer game than people might realize.
DIVISION 2
Barnstable v. King Philip/CM v. Marshfield
Stone: KP (20-13) and CM (28-21) for me. We get yet another Warriors-Knights rematch at Gillette this year. KP has just shown a grit and determination to get back to the big stage again and it’s hard for me to see Barnstable denying them of their end goal. Barnstable is capable of making this a game and they will, but KP grinds it out late and gets a late TD to win it. CM is still CM when the calendar turns to November and while I think Marshfield makes it close, the Knights prevail late and set up another date between these two.
Sarianides: Barnstable and Marshfield are good programs that are well coached but I think we’re going to get King Philip, Catholic Memorial III. Both teams can run the ball, control the clock and they have the talent on defense to shut down any offense they face. If there was ever a year King Philip could beat the Knights, this might be the one. I think the Warriors are the best team left in Division Two.
Kurkjian: Everyone has expected it all year. A three-time state final of King Philip and Catholic Memorial. Don’t overthink it. It’s coming.
Amaral: Give me KP 21-7 and CM 35-28. King Philip has arguably the best defense in the MIAA. The Warriors have a stable of backs, a nasty line and a great coach. Tough to bet against that in November. Catholic Memorial isn’t quite as dominant as the past few years, but the Knights are still a top-tier program in the state. Marshfield plays at a faster offensive pace than anyone I’ve seen in the state. Rams will keep it close, but the Knights will prevail.
DIVISION 3
Milford v. Walpole/Westfield v. Milton
Stone: Scarlet Hawks (22-20) and Westfield (28-26). As soon as the D3 brackets came out, we all said it was probably the most loaded tournament of all eight divisions and I think both of these Final Four games come down to the wire. Having covered the Olson’s when they took Millis on a Super Bowl run years ago, it’s pretty much been the exact same progression and I think they get back to Gillette, although year in and year out Walpole is always in the mix. I saw Westfield beat Woburn in person and was impressed, but going and beating Billerica on the road too is wild and I have trouble believing the run stops here, even if Milton is on a quest to get back to the championship game it lost a year ago.
Sarianides: Tough calls here. Milford is the best team left in the bracket in my opinion but Walpole is certainly good enough to knock them off. I am going with the Scarlet Hawks in a close game. Milton has found their mojo again offensively and while I think Westfield is a tough match up, I think the Wildcats survive and get back to Gillette to take on Milford.
Kurkjian: These are two even matchups. Going with Milford and Milton in two close games.
Amaral: I’ve got Milford 24-21 and Westfield 21-14 here. Milford has a balanced offense and stout defense. The Scarlet Hawks have big game experience after advancing to the D2 semifinals last year. Walpole is as hot as anyone, though. A true pick ’em. The Bombers continue their streak of wins over Eastern Mass teams. Kaevon Eddington is one of the top backs in the state.
DIVISION 4
Tewksbury v. Duxbury/Scituate v. Grafton
Stone: Going with Duxbury (30-20) and Grafton (17-14). The Dragons lost talent and are still one win away from getting back to Gillette to try and repeat as champs. Hard to pick against a team that has the championship experience. Having said that, Scituate has plenty of it, yet I just feel like it’s Grafton’s time. Coach McMahon’s team has been knocking on the door and I feel like they’ll be able to handle what the Sailors throw at them, but this might end up being the best game of the weekend when it’s all said and done.
Sarianides: We are going to get a 2021 rematch in Division 4. Duxbury and Scituate are the two most talented left and I think the cream will rise. Jackson Belsen and the Sailors are playing well right now. Alex Barlow and the Dragons have been consistent all season long. I think these two Patriot League rivals are on a collision course.
Kurkjian: Duxbury and Scituate are the picks, and we get a rematch of the 2021 D4 state title, which was a tremendous game.
Amaral: Duxbury 28-14 and Scituate 35-21. Duxbury lost its opener to a very good Hanover team. Since then, Duxbury has not lost and looks like the dominant team we’re accustomed to seeing. Look for two-way standout Alex Barlow to make a difference. The Sailors are battled-tested. Scituate has one of the better offenses in the state and they are clicking right now.
DIVISION 5
Hanover v. Danvers/Foxborough v. Shawsheen
Stone: Hanover (42-17) and Foxborough (27-21). The Hawks have been flying high all season long and doing so in impressive fashion. I just think they have too much on offense for Danvers to handle. In the other game, Foxborough is one of those teams that’s always in the hunt and when you have to come out of the Hockomock, you’re simply more battle tested than other teams. I think that pays dividends for the Warriors here and Jack Martinelli gets to coach on the Gillette sidelines in the same season he won his 300th game.
Sarianides: Make it a clean sweep. I am going with Hanover and Foxboro as well. They have been the two best teams in Division 5 all season long and they will meet at Gillette Stadium in should be a fantastic match up between two teams that are very different stylistically.
Kurkjian: Another one where you shouldn’t overthink it. Hanover and Foxboro have been the favorites all year, and should get it done. Shawsheen and Danvers will make it tough, though.
Amaral: I’ve got Hanover winning 35-14 and Foxboro winning 21-14 here. Hanover is one of the most complete teams in the state regardless of division. Expect Ben Scalzi to account for multiple touchdowns in this one. Foxboro, coming off back-to-back D4 semifinal appearances, has been building for this. The Warriors and Rams both return plenty of key contributors from 2022. This could arguably be the game of the weekend. It’ll be a rock fight.
DIVISION 6
Fairhaven v. Hudson/Stoneham v. Salem
Stone: Tough ones to pick. Going with Hudson (13-12) and Stoneham (14-13). Low-scoring affairs in both games here I think. Having covered Hudson during their really down years for the Metro West Daily News, I admittedly have a soft spot for them and have been extremely impressed with the run so far this season. Stoneham and head coach Bob Almeida are seemingly always here and I believe they grind one out against a very, very good Salem team.
Sarianides: I am going with Hudson and Stoneham in Division 6. Bob Almeida has the Spartans playing well at the right time of the season. Their potent double wing offense is running on all cylinders right now. Hudson will face a tough test in Fairhaven but quarterback Jake Attaway is one of the top signal callers in the state. This Super Bowl match up has the potential to be terrific given the contrasts in styles.
Kurkjian: Hudson and Salem are the picks, but Fairhaven and Stoneham have the running games to change that.
Amaral: Give me Fairhaven 26-20 and Salem 28-18 here. Fairhaven has seemingly flown under the radar all season long. Justin Marques could see 40 carries this weekend. Salem has been one of the better stories of the year. The Witches faced some rough years, but now find themselves one win away from playing at Gillette. Corey Grimes, Quinn Rocco Ryan and Albert Pujols will find a way to get it done against No. 15 Stoneham.
DIVISION 7
Clinton v. Uxbridge/Cohasset v. Amesbury
Stone: Uxbridge (31-13) and Cohasset (20-7). Uxbridge has been a wagon offensively all year in CMASS and I don’t think there’s a team that can stop them at this point. They’ve been on cruise control most of the year and it continues this weekend. Meanwhile, Cohasset is another team that’s familiar with the big stage and I think they’re able to control this one against Amesbury.
Sarianides: I am going with Uxbridge versus Amesbury in the Division 7 Super Bowl. Spartans have been rolling all season long and boast one of the top offenses in the state. Amesbury has flown under the radar all season long but they have been consistent and are capable of winning it all in two weeks.
Kurkjian: Uxbridge is a wagon, and Amesbury has the dominant running game to get by Cohasset.
Amaral: I like Uxbridge big over Clinton and Amesbury in a slugfest over Cohasset. The Spartans are the most dominant team in the state relative to their competition. They have not played a close game yet. I expect that to continue. Amesbury and Cohasset is one of the better games of the weekend. The Redhawks will score a late touchdown and punch their ticket to Gillette.
DIVISION 8
West Boylston v. Cathedral/Carver v. Hoosac Valley
Stone: D8 is interesting, but I’m going to go with what I know, so give me West Boylston (29-27) and Carver (16-14). West Boylston took home the D7 title last year and now a step down this year, they should be able to waltz into Gillette for the D8 game. As for Carver, ever since spring passing camp where they dominated some teams they probably shouldn’t have, they’ve been on our radar and continued to stay there. No reason to lose faith in the Crusaders now.
Sarianides: It was destined to be West Boylston and Carver and it is certainly shaping up that way. Carver reminds me a lot of Hull last season. A senior laden team building to this moment. West Boylston is the defending Division 7 Champion and also returns a talented senior class. Both teams will be challenged this weekend but they are the two top teams in Division 8.
Kurkjian: West Boylston and Carver have seemed like the main contenders all year, so go with those two.
Amaral: West Boylston 42-14 and Carver 42-24 for me here. West Boylston is similarly dominant to Uxbridge. The Lions have somehow exceeded their sky-high preseason expectations. Carver has been building for this season for quite some time. Tyler Lennox is one of the most prolific passers in the state. The Crusaders offense is dynamite.