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Patriots @ Panthers: November 7th, 2021. 1:00 PM
Line: Patriots -3.5
The New England Patriots face off against the Carolina Panthers at 1 o’clock on Sunday in Charlotte. The Patriots are coming off a great win against the Los Angeles Chargers who looked like a contender before going on their current losing skid. The New England defense looked great and the offense played well, limiting mistakes and controlling time of possession. They have a golden opportunity to extend the winning streak on Sunday.
Lets break down the matchups.
New England offense vs Carolina defense
Passing game matchup
Mac Jones and the Patriots did what they had to on Sunday in LA, but Mac Jones did not have a great game. He went 18 for 35 for 217 yards with no touchdowns. Not a terrible day at all, but he missed some receivers consistently with high throws and over throws on deep balls. He did limit the mistakes and had 0 turnover worthy plays according to PFF, but he could have made the game more comfortable if he converted some of the easier throws he missed. He spread the ball around again as well, hitting 8 different receivers with completions throughout the game. The offensive line also played great against a good pass rush, letting up only 6 pressures and 1 sack on their QB. This will be an interesting matchup against a good defense in Carolina. Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor were targeted on 22/35 of Mac’s passes as the Chargers were trying to take away the short and middle of the field passing game. I expect Carolina to try and do the same but they have much more talented corners than LA does. The Panthers defense is the most complete D New England has seen this year so I’ll be interested to see how McDaniels attacks it. I think one thing is for sure, they’ll know where Stephon Gilmore is at all times.
The Carolina Panthers’ strength is their defense by a wide margin. They are allowing 295 offensive yards game per game and 188 passing yards per game. Those are both good for 2nd in the league, behind only the Buffalo Bills. Their defensive front is loaded with talent in EDGE Brian Burns and defensive tackle Derrick Brown. Their linebacking corps is led by Shaq Thompson who is having a great year and in the secondary they have Stephon Gilmore, Donte Jackson and Jeremy Chinn who are all very high level players. Patriots fans know Gilmore well and know what he is capable of. Gilmore shadowed Kyle Pitts last week when the Panthers played Atlanta and allowed 1 catch for 2 yards the whole game. Those that know what Pitts is capable of and how he’s looked know that is an impressive feat by a now healthy Gilmore. I’ll be interested to see what Carolina does with Gilmore Sunday as the Patriots don’t really have a #1 receiving threat he would stick with. Carolina’s defense also has great depth so they might put Gilmore on one side and keep him there.
I’m really excited to see Gilmore play against his old team on Sunday. Players always want to play their best against their old teams and Gilmore will be no exception. This is a really tough Carolina D and while I think their offense might put them in some tough spots, I believe they have a clear advantage here.
Advantage: Carolina
Running game matchup
The Patriots were actually outrushed by the Chargers on Sunday but they still had a really solid day on the ground, totaling 142 rushing yards. Damien Harris led the way with 80 yards on 23 rushes, a modest yards per carry rate, but he had multiple long runs called back due to penalty. Isaiah Wynn had a great day as well, moving around some of the uber talented LA defensive linemen. As the weeks go by, this Patriots’ running game is looking more and more like it was supposed to at the beginning of the year. The Panthers’ defense is very well rounded but if there is one area that is exploitable, it is the run defense. It sounds boring, but with Mac Jones behind center, as well as he has played, the formula for this team is to run the ball 30 times a game and control the time of possession. That is what I anticipate McDaniels will do Sunday and I think it is enough to wear down Carolina’s D.
The Panthers’ defense has an interesting run of performances in the run game this year. Their first 3 games, they allowed less than 50 yards rushing each time. When they played Dallas in week 4, they allowed 245 yards rushing. Now the Cowboys are a great team running the ball, but that is a huge disparity. They then held the Eagles to under 100 yards on the ground and a week later let the Vikings run all over them for almost 200 yards. They have been better the past few weeks but the inconsistency is a big issue that they need to figure out. They have talent everywhere on the defense but other than Brian Burns and Derrick Brown up front, the defensive line is made up of mostly unknowns. They are 2 beasts up front, but if the Patriots can effectively neutralize them, there will be a lot of running room. I know they are noticing this trend at Patriot Place as well and hope to be the next team to knock the Panthers off the line of scrimmage.
The Panthers’ defense is good, there is no doubt about that. But they are more built to defend the pass and some teams play into that. The Patriots won’t.
Advantage: New England
Carolina offense vs New England defense
Passing game matchup
The Carolina Panthers offense is as bad as it’s defense is good. They rank bottom 5 in the NFL in pass yards per game and are led by Sam Darnold, who shockingly did not stop being terrible at football after he left the Jets. He currently has a shoulder injury plus a concussion so his status for Sunday’s game is questionable at best. As much as the Patriots would love to play Darnold and give him another paranormal experience, his backup might be just as bad. PJ Walker went to Temple where he played under now Panthers head coach Matt Rhule. He had a good career there and ended up signing with the Colts as and undrafted free agent in 2017. He has played limited snaps this year but when he has played, he has had some questionable decision making. Matt Rhule has confidence in his former college quarterback who apparently has a big arm and the support of the Carolina locker room. Christian McCaffery is likely still out for this week’s game so that will be a relief to the Patriots as he is the best pass catching back in the NFL. The Panthers do have a standout wide receiver in DJ Moore who can run the ball and play from the slot or outside. Robby Anderson is their deep threat but has been very quiet this year and got lit up last game by the Falcons. A QB with questionable decision making skills is a bad thing to bring to a game against Bill Belichick.
Update: Sam Darnold has been cleared from concussion protocol and Christian McCaffery was activated for this game on Sunday. It is to be determined whether they will actually play and how much, but keep an eye out for them at 1PM.
The Patriots‘ pass defense was outstanding last week against a really talented QB in Justin Herbert. Herbert finished the game 18 for 35 with 2 TDs but 2 interceptions to go along with them. The Patriots are a man coverage team and everybody knows it. I said in my preview last week to look for more zone coverage and that is exactly what Bill did. The Patriots only had 11 plays on Sunday in straight man coverage, their lowest total of the year. This is evidently not what Herbert was expecting, as he still was able to complete passes but hesitated to read the disguised coverages that were put in front of him. Belichick is a master at disguising coverages and the extra processing time Herbert had to go through caused the Patriots to be able to tally 17 pressures and 4 sacks, a lot of which came while only rushing four. Against this lackluster and sputtering Carolina offense, I think Bill goes back to the bread and butter. A QB who has bad decision making skills will have even worse decision making skills with pressure in his face. I think New England goes back to consistent cover 1 and cover 0 looks to make Walker uncomfortable from the start and to shut down the run game.
Easy pick here. I think the Patriots defense has a stellar performance in a victory.
Advantage: New England
Running game matchup
The Panthers have actually been closer to the middle of the pack running the football. Christian McCaffery has been out for weeks now so the rookie out of Oklahoma State, Chuba Hubbard, will be getting most of the carries. Through 8 games and 6 starts he has 108 carries for 391 yards to pair with 18 catches for 119 yards. He is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry so the Panthers have started to use Ameer Abdullah and Royce Freeman as well. The Panthers were able to take advantage of a very weak Atlanta Falcons defense last week as they totaled over 200 yards on the ground. The committee approach worked wonders so I would assume that is what they’ll stick with against New England. The only chance the Panthers have is to get their run game going and they may be able to do that against the Patriots.
The Patriots let up 163 yards on the ground to the Chargers last week. Part of the game plan was to sit in zone and disguise coverages which opened up the run game a bit but the rushing attack was what kept the Chargers in the game. On 11 rushes Austin Ekeler averaged 5.8 yards per carry and his backfield mate Justin Jackson ripped off a 75 yard run, putting LA in position to score. New England has been around the middle of the pack when it comes to yards per game let up on the ground but their inconsistency, like Carolina’s, has been concerning. Their injury report is loaded with “limited” participants on the defense so it is hard to tell who they will have on Sunday, but they’ll need to be far more disciplined up front to avoid any mishaps against the Panthers.
This one is close due to the Patriots’ inconsistency stopping the run and the Panthers’ emphasis on the run game. I give New England’s D a slight talent edge but I know Carolina’s game plan is going to hinge entirely on running the football. I think the Patriots’ talent advantage up front tips the scale slightly.
Advantage: New England
This is a game that I am pretty confident the Patriots will win. The Panthers are an inferior team who are coming off of a win and have nothing to lose. The Patriots’ confidence will be up as well as they beat a good Chargers team, bucking the narrative that they only beat up on losing teams.
I think the Patriots run the ball effectively but I am very interested to see Mac play against a defense that is this good. Gilmore will be on his toes ready to jump on a mistake Mac makes and the Panthers’ pass rush is ferocious. Can the Panthers get anything going at all on offense? That will be how the game is decided.
I’m taking the Patriots on the road to win and cover.
Prediction: Patriots-23 Panthers-17