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Patriots @ Chargers: October 31st, 2021. 4:05 PM
Line: Patriots +4
The Patriots are coming off of an absolutely dominating performance last Sunday against the Jets. They now have a tough challenge on the road against an extremely talented Chargers team that is fresh coming off of a BYE week. The Patriots were impressive against the Jets on Sunday but they have yet to prove they can beat other good teams. Can they hang with some of the AFC’s best?
Lets break down the matchups.
New England offense vs Los Angeles defense
Passing game matchup
Mac Jones looked good once again on Sunday, throwing for 307 yards on 66% passing for 2 touchdowns. This of course comes with the caveat of “it was the Jets” but it was nonetheless good to see Jones open it up a little bit and he looked comfortable doing it. There were 11 different receivers that contributed to the effort including Brandon Bolden providing a spark out of the backfield with 6 receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown. This week presents a tougher challenge in the 4-2 LA Chargers. I think New England unsurprisingly stick with the short game and the efficient screens to counteract the Chargers’ tenacious pass rush. I liked the way the Patriots got their new tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry involved last week and it seems like McDaniels and Mac are both getting in a rhythm with their new weapons. The Patriots’ offensive line played fantastic on Sunday against a talented Jets defensive front, only allowing 6 pressures and 1 sack. They’ll need to repeat that performance and then some against a pass rush led by Joey Bosa on Sunday.
The Chargers are a new team in 2021, in case anyone was remembering the Chargers vs Patriots game from 2020 that saw the Patriots crush them 45-0. They have a new defensive minded head coach in Brandon Staley who has been fantastic so far this year as a head coach, but he has his defense ranked toward the middle of the pack. The defense has shown flashes but has been inconsistent, letting up 42 points to a Cleveland Browns team two weeks ago but only letting up 20 points to an explosive Cowboys team in week 2. They have some serious impact players on defense in Joey Bosa, Derwin James and Chris Harris Jr. who are primed to cause a big turnover at any point. The Patriots‘ offensive line have seen a few good pass rushers so far this year, but none as good as Joey Bosa. He is quick off the edge and can beat you with speed or power and the Patriots‘ tackles have struggled at times with those type of rushers. Staley has had two weeks to prepare for New England and I think he’ll stack the box to defend the run and dare Mac to throw it down the field into his talented secondary.
This one is close, mostly because we still have a lot to learn about both units. I’m going to call it even with the tie breakers being if the Chargers can get a lot of pressure on Mac and if the Patriots can get their short passing game going early.
Advantage: EVEN
Running game matchup
The Patriots’ run game on Sunday looked like the Patriots’ run game we know and love. It was a football guy’s dream as they rushed for 148 yards led by Damien Harris, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry. The offensive line was taking advantage of the Jets‘ lack of gap integrity, creating holes a mack truck could drive through for their backs. JJ Taylor even chipped in with 2 touchdowns of his own during garbage time. It will be imperative for the Patriots to get their run game going early and Damien Harris is slowly becoming one of my favorite players in the league, as he is reminiscent of some of the 2000’s era running backs teams used to lean on all game. That is the type of team the Patriots are trending toward and they should continue to play to their own strengths.
So we know about the Patriots’ powerful run game but how do the Chargers stack up? Lets take a look at PFF‘s premium stats. The LA Chargers are dead last in the league in rush yards allowed per attempt, rush yards allowed before contact and average depth of tackle. They are also bottom 5 in the league in rush yards after contact per attempt and explosive run plays allowed. All in all, the Chargers’ run defense is a disaster. This is a clear weakness for LA and in their last two games they’ve let up 230 rushing yards to the Browns in a win and 187 rushing yards to the Ravens in a loss. Staley is still getting used to the new personnel he has with his team but he is going to need to get creative to stop the Patriots’ rushing attack.
Clear advantage here for the Patriots. Look for them to get Harris churning early and often.
Advantage: New England
Los Angeles offense vs New England defense
Passing game matchup
The LA Chargers‘ defense might be inconsistent but their offense is potent and explosive. It’s led by budding superstar Justin Herbert who is averaging 295 yards per game on 65% passing with 14 TDs and 4 INTs. He is surrounded by weapons on all sides with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the outside who are two of the best athletes at the WR position in the whole league. They have newly acquired tight end Jared Cook who is a veteran presence who can still play and gives Herbert a great option in the red zone. They also have one of the best receiving backs in the NFL, Austin Ekeler who averages almost 5 catches a game for 40 yards and can bust a catch for a touchdown at any point. The Chargers’ offensive line was a big issue last year that has been much improved with the additions of first round pick Rashawn Slater and free agent stud center Corey Linsley who are both playing phenomenal this season. They can attack you on any part of the field and Herbert has a laser beam arm that he isn’t afraid to use.
This is going to be an enormous challenge for New England’s defense. Belichick and the Patriots shutout the Chargers last year but this really is a different LA team. The Patriots defense this year has been puzzling, as they have looked great in some games while being leaky and inconsistent in others. They played well on Sunday but I am not going to take much from a game that Mike White played most of. This matchup worries me a bit as the Patriots’ defense has looked pedestrian at times throughout this year. The Ravens had success against the Chargers last week doing what the Ravens do best, playing man coverage and blitzing. They also stopped the Chargers strategy of consistently converting 3rd and 4th downs, giving their offense good field position to strike back. The Patriots love to play man and put pressure on QBs as well, but my worry is we will see a repeat of the Cowboys game. While the Patriots’ defense held the Cowboys from scoring a lot, their corners could not hang with Dallas’ receivers and Dak consistently picked them apart. For the Patriots, Belichick will likely try to apply pressure but will have to disguise them and probably switch it up and play some zone in the back end to change what Herbert is seeing. The Patriot’s injury report looks like a phonebook this week so it really is impossible to tell who is at risk of not playing.
It depends on what Belichick does with his coverage, but LA’s offense is too explosive to fade here especially with how inconsistent New England’s defense has been.
Advantage: Los Angeles
Running game matchup
The Chargers are 29th in the league in rush attempts in 2021. Austin Ekeler is a really talented running back but LA’s coaching staff is seemingly on board with the analytics community with the attitude that passing the ball is almost always better than running the ball, especially with a quarterback like Justin Herbert. They have also been in a lot of close games, which necessitate throwing the ball to score quick and regain the lead quickly. Ekeler is actually pretty efficient running the ball this year, averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 73 carries in 2021. The offensive line is new and improved but it does always take a bit for new units, especially up front, to gel and get chemistry. I prefer a balanced approach to play calling personally, but I think Ekeler’s efficiency and Herbert’s success through the air proves that what the Chargers are doing is working well enough to continue. I will say that the Chargers will need to get some semblance of a running game going because the last thing you want to do against a Bill Belichick coached defense is be one dimensional.
The Patriots’ run defense is just outside the top 10 in the league after their domination of the New York Jets in week 7. The rushing attack of the Chargers is not something to necessarily be afraid of, but I do think Staley is smart enough to know it’s going to be important to keep the Patriots’ D honest through some early rushing success. As I mentioned earlier, it is hard to figure out what is going on with the Patriots health wise as it seems Belichick is playing games with practice statuses. That being said, I’d think Hightower will play on Sunday which will shore up some of their front 7. If their injury report actually has merit to it, the Patriots front 7 will be seriously hurting against LA and could cause them to try to run the ball more than they have all season.
Give me the Patriots here due to LA’s hesitancy to run the ball in general.
Advantage: New England
This is going to be a great game. I think both teams have advantages in this one that they can exploit. The Chargers’ weapons on the outside and Ekeler out of the backfield is going to create problems for New England’s defense. If Bill Belichick is stubborn and sits in man coverage, the Patriot’s corners are going to get toasted. I expect him to switch up his coverages with heavy doses of man. For the Patriots, run the football. That is it. You have a massive advantage and a running back who can handle the bulk of the carries for you. Take advantage of that and pound the rock like the old school Patriots.
I’ve been having a tough time picking this game because it reminds me of the Cowboys matchup. The Patriots had many chances to win that game but let it slip through their fingers. I think Bill knows how important this game is to their season and they pull off the upset on the road.
Prediction: Patriots: 23 Chargers: 20