LEFT: AP/RIGHT: JIM DAVIS, BOSTON GLOBE
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Buccaneers @ Patriots: October 3rd, 2021. 8:20 PM
Line: Buccaneers -7; O/U 49
It’s finally here. Brady’s return to Foxborough and Belichick’s battle against his former QB is the biggest NFL storyline we’ve had in a very long time. Fans will be ready and who knows what kind of tribute or welcome Brady will get, but you have to think fans will give him a warm welcome. I’m not even sure the Patriots will have homefield advantage over their former QB Sunday night but Bill Belichick will have them ready to play.
Lets chop it up.
New England offense vs Tampa Bay defense
The Patriots’ offense was nowhere to be found on Sunday against the Saints. Mac Jones was pressured a whopping 18 times against the Saints but only 2 of those turned into sacks. Trent Brown was missing again so that is a valid reason why they are struggling, but if the line continues to be a problem it will be a big red flag moving forward. Mac had probably his worst day as a pro, throwing 3 interceptions while only completing 59% of his passes. He didn’t get much help, but he definitely looked like a rookie. The run game was also virtually non-existent with the Patriots only running the ball 15 times for 49 yards. James White’s injury was a big blow but yet again the offensive line was not re-setting the line of scrimmage nearly enough. Part of their rushing woes can be attributed to the gamescript and being down early, but they have a lot to work on if they want to run the ball effectively again.
The Buccaneers’ vaunted defense from a year ago is returning a lot of starters but they have been closer to the middle of the pack thus far. They’ve been dealing with injuries, but their secondary has been mediocre at best, allowing 338 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. To be fair to them, they’ve faced some stud quarterbacks in MVP candidate Matthew Stafford and CPOY candidate Dak Prescott. When they faced Matt Ryan in week 3 they dominated him, tallying 3 interceptions and helping their team cruise to a 23 point win. They’ll look for a similar performance Sunday night against a rookie quarterback and underperforming offensive line.
Passing game matchup
I actually did not think Mac Jones played as badly as the box score indicated on Sunday. He dealt with pressure better than previous weeks but there was just a lot more of it. He threw up a couple of questionable balls that were intercepted by a sharp New Orleans secondary and one was almost solely the fault of new tight end Jonnu Smith. The deficit the Patriots were facing caused them to throw the ball more as Kendrick Bourne and Jackobi Meyers combined for 190 yards on 15 catches.
The Patriots NEED more production from their new and expensive tight ends. Jonnu Smith has not been playing well at all and while it has only been 3 games, there is cause for concern considering he has the lowest PFF grade of his career by a large margin so far. They need to get him involved to get his confidence up and they need it soon. Hunter Henry has been a good blocker but they can scheme him open in the passing game more than they have been. I think the Patriots’ receivers will be able to get open against the Bucs’ secondary, but the ability of Mac Jones to find them hinges on, you guessed it, the offensive line. Brown was limited at Wednesday’s practice but the Patriots’ are starving for some consistency at right tackle and Brown will represent a big upgrade in performance and experience.
The Bucs’ defense is still very good, don’t let their lackluster stats through week 3 fool you. One thing that has been exposed is their secondary, but their defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has been very aggressive blitzing this year so that puts defensive backs in tougher position to cover more field. It was also announced that CB Richard Sherman will be active for Sunday night’s game and will presumably get playing time so that is a situation to monitor. Throughout his career Sherman has been a predominantly zone corner and the Bucs play a lot of man so it’ll be interesting to see how they utilize him.
The Bucs lead the NFL in total blitzes on passing downs with 61, so they’ll look to put pressure on the Patriots’ offensive line early and often. They have not been able to convert those into pressures and sacks however, ranking toward the bottom of the league in both of those metrics. Sure its early in the season, but they’ll need to get to Mac with those blitzes if they want to take pressure off the battered secondary.
I trust the Bucs’ pass rush to get home enough to make the difference.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Running game matchup
The Patriots need to get their running game going in a big way if they want have a prayer in this game. The path to victory looks something like 150+ rushing yards and winning the time of possession battle by a wide margin. The Patriots thus far rank 23rd in the league in rushing yards per game with only 91.7. That is partially due to the offensive line’s woes which have seemingly gotten worse as time has gone on. Trent Brown should be back for Sunday’s matchup which will help that right side, but the whole unit needs to improve drastically if they want to move the rock.
I’d lean heavily on Damien Harris in this game and with James White out indefinitely, the Patriots will need a back to step up to take those reps. Who that will be is a mystery, but the Patriots will need the next man up to provide a spark if they want to put pressure on the Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers’ run defense has been fantastic so far this season, though that is partially because teams have not run the ball much against them. Still, they rank 4th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, allowing only 63.7. They have some big run stuffing defensive lineman like Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh and Steve Mclendon who are nightmares to move in the running game. Add to that Devin White and Lavonte David and you have a scary group who will be looking to take advantage of the suspect New England offensive line all night long. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has had this group playing hungry and I don’t expect Sunday to be any exception.
Give me the strong front 7 of Tampa over the stumbling Patriots’ run game.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay offense vs New England defense
Tampa Bay’s offense runs through a player that you may have heard of before. Tom Brady has truly been Tom Terrific this year, as he has been completing 68.8% of his passes for 349 yards per game and 10 touchdowns. He is truly having an MVP type season and looks just as good as any point in his career thus far. He’s spreading the ball around to his weapons and has defenses constantly on their toes, tallying 432 yards passing and completing 74.5% of his passes in a losing effort last week to a strong Rams team. The offense runs through him and with a top offensive line and the best receiving weapons in the league, there is no reason to think Brady will stop dominating any time soon. Now its time for him to show what he can do against his former coach.
Belichick has his defense playing well as usual as they are top 5 in both points against and yards allowed to this point. However, anyone who has watched the Patriots this year knows that their inconsistency has been apparent. Last week they were shredded by a Saints offense led by Jameis Winston and Alvin Kamara. They lost the turnover battle, totaling 0 takeaways against a quarterback who is known for his rash decisions in the pocket. The Patriots’ D also was gashed by the Saints’ running game as they gained 142 rushing yards on almost 4 yards per carry. This Patriots’ defense will need to look significantly better if they want to keep up with the GOAT and his Bucs.
Passing game matchup
Tom Brady is going to be looking to not only beat the Patriots on Sunday night, he wants to embarrass them. Whether you think the breakup between Brady and New England has been dramatized or if you believe it was actually bitter and resentful, Tom wants to come in and show everybody the reason those Super Bowl banners are hanging at Gillette. And I have no doubt he will. Bill won’t sit back and allow Brady to pick apart his defense, so I expect a lot of blitzing and stunting up front which means trusting his defensive backs to get the job done. Brady’s options to throw to will consist of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Gronk. That is not a group of playmakers that I believe the Patriots can stick with given what we have seen so far. Look for him to get all his guys involved early and take a few deep shots to former Patriot Antonio Brown.
The Patriots are allowing the second least passing yards per game through 3 weeks which is mostly due to the quarterbacks they have faced. They have not had much of a test so far and when they faced a quarterback not named Zach Wilson, they’ve been unable to consistently generate stops.
The Patriots play a ton of man to man coverage which has worked for them in the past but they’ll need to get creative on Sunday night. Stephon Gilmore is still not healthy which has shifted responsibilities around to JC Jackson, Joejuan Williams, Jalen Mills and Jonathan Jones. JC Jackson has been consistent but the rest of the bunch need to get it together as they haven’t been exposed by an elite quarterback……yet. This is a huge mismatch in my eyes and if the Patriots had Stephon Gilmore fully healthy it would still be a nightmare to account for all the Bucs’ weapons on offense. Expect the Patriots to play mostly man to man in the back end while doing everything they can to pressure Brady, specifically up the middle with MUG looks, creative blitzes and defensive line stunts. Christian Barmore should be used heavily as an interior pass rusher this game to do what he does best.
The Patriots’ secondary and pass rush no doubt has talent and youth, but I think Brady and the Bucs are simply too powerful for them to get consistent stops on 3rd down and in the red zone. How do you “stop” Tom Brady? Most of the time, you don’t. Brady’s losses throughout his career have traditionally come in part due to pressure up the middle. As my friend John Sarianides mentioned in his article, expect to see the Patriots in nickel and dime personnel most of the night to dare the Bucs to run the ball.
Advantage: Heavily Tampa Bay
Running game matchup
The Buccaneers ran the ball TEN times total last weekend against the Rams. If the game is close or competitive at all, the ball will be in Brady’s hand. In fact, over 3 games the Bucs have only handed the ball off to their running backs a total of 39 times. That being said, Tampa Bay has a fantastic offensive line and two very capable running backs in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette but they haven’t made the running game a priority at all. Arians loves to throw the ball and Brady loves to throw the ball so it is not a surprise they’ve been gravitating to that especially with their weapons on the outside. If Bill invites them to run the ball by playing a light box, I can see them going 12 personnel and running the ball more, but it’s going to be the Brady show Sunday night.
The Patriots’ run defense again was exposed against the Saints. To be fair, the Saints have a great offensive line and one of the best backs in the league, but the Patriots should’ve known what was coming and they still got ran all over. And it wasn’t just Kamara, Taysom Hill was running some QB power on the way to 5.3 yards per carry. Ja’Whuan Bentley and Kyle Van Noy had good games on Sunday but they are both questionable to even play Sunday with injuries. Its going to be tough for the Patriots to magically start playing the run better, but I don’t think the Bucs will really try to test them. I can see Brady throwing the ball 50+ times to try to put the game away.
I’ll give this one to Tampa because I think the run game will be available if they want it. I just don’t expect them to use it very much.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
The big game is here. Finally.
This will be one for the ages because of all the storylines, the buildup and the anticipation. But what is going to happen on the turf in Foxborough Sunday night?
My brain has been telling me all week that the Bucs are the better team, with the best quarterback ever who still somehow has a chip on his shoulder. But my gut keeps telling me Bill won’t let this get away from him. I think Brady is going to want to bury the Patriots so badly that he makes a mistake early to keep the Patriots in the game.
That being said, I don’t think the Patriots offense can keep up with the Bucs if it comes down to it. The way the Patriots win this game is by pressuring Brady early and knocking him out of rhythm and running the crap out of the ball on offense. They’re going to need to control time of possession to keep Tom off the field and Mac will have to make some big plays to keep the chains moving.
I don’t see it happening. Bill keeps it close to keep fans interested and the Buccaneers pull away in the second half with three touchdowns from the GOAT.
Prediction: Buccaneers-34 Patriots-17