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Saints @ Patriots: September 26th, 2021. 1:00 PM
Line: Patriots -3; O/U 41.5
The Patriots and Saints matchup on Sunday at 1PM, in a battle of teams trying to claw above .500. The weather in Foxborough calls for 75 and sunny, perfect football weather. This is a seemingly even matchup and Vegas seems to agree.
Lets break it down.
New England offense vs New Orleans defense
Mac Jones and the Patriots beat the Jets handily on Sunday with a final score of 25-6. However, there was some problems that the Patriots will need to address as they’re getting into the tough part of their schedule. Jones finished 22 of 30 for 186 yards and no touchdowns against New York. Contributing to his mellow stat line was his offensive line, giving up 8 pressures and 3 sacks to the Jets solid pass rush. The run blocking was good, not great as they tallied 101 yards with some impressive chunk plays by Damien Harris. James White looked great all day, racking up 5 carries for 20 yards and two touchdowns and adding on 6 receptions for 45 yards.
The Saints had a rough week last week. They were dealing with some injuries to standouts Marcus Davenport and Kwon Alexander, plus Alexander’s backup Pete Werner. They also had SEVEN coaches out for the game on Sunday due to COVID protocol. The Saints lost to the Panthers Sunday by a score of 26-7, but that was not entirely on the defense. Jameis Winston was vintage Jameis, throwing up a few egregious interceptions when he just didn’t need to. Carolina dominated the time of possesion 38:32-21:28, having Christian McCaffery touch the ball 30 times. Sam Darnold feasted on the banged up Saints’ D, going 26 for 38 for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Passing game matchup
Mac Jones had another efficient week against the Jets, but there were some definite negatives to go along with it. Jones’ favorite target was James White and his average depth of target was only 3 yards. It is never a bad thing to take the check down, but re-watching the film has brought to light that Mac had guys open downfield a few times and he passed up on the explosive play for the shorter one. This was partially due to the fact that his offensive line was getting beat quickly so Jones’ internal clock was telling him to get rid of the ball. If the rookie is easily rattled by a pass rush, that can develop some bad habits that will lead to sloppy mistakes like his late game intentional grounding against the Jets. The Patriots’ offensive line will need to play better this week if they want a chance to move the ball.
The Saints’ defense would like to think their identity is closer to their week one performance rather than their week two performance. In week one they shut down the Packers and Aaron Rodgers, leaving Rodgers with a statline of 15 for 28 with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The Saints forced Green Bay into obvious passing situations and took full advantage, getting 10 pressures which forced Rodgers to make uncharacteristic mistakes. It is impossible to ignore their performance against the Panthers this week but this Saints’ defense is loaded with talent and are getting healthy this week. The Patriots’ offense has been good not great, but they don’t have a Christian McCaffery that they can lean on.
Give me the experienced Saints’ secondary here against the rookie.
Advantage: New Orleans
Running game matchup
The Patriots were outrushed on Sunday by New York but I have faith they can get the run game going this Sunday. They will need to, as forcing Mac to sit in the pocket and throw downfield against the Saints’ secondary would be less than ideal. I think you get the offensive line going downhill early with Damien Harris to get the defensive front for New Orleans aggressive, then use James White and the tight ends to eat up the short part of the field. Right tackle was yet again split this week between Justin Herron and Yasir Durant. Neither were impressive, but they were better in the run game than the passing attack.
The Saints shut down the Packers’ run game for less than 50 yards week 1 and responded in week 2 by letting Christian McCaffery tally 137 total yards. CMC is CMC and it is hard to extrapolate defense’s effectiveness against the run after they play Carolina. New Orleans does have some serious run stoppers on their defense in veterans Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan who should make things hard on New England’s line.
I’ll take the Patriots’ front and talented running backs to get some push up front on Sunday.
Advantage: New England
New Orleans offense vs New England defense
The story is the same for the Saints’ offense as it is for their defense, a tale of two weeks. They looked fantastic week one against the Packers, whose defense is less than stellar after two games. When going up against a stout Carolina defense, they looked lost.
The Patriots’ defense has been……..well its been the Patriots’ defense. They take any opportunity they are given to make a play, showcasing that last week on the way to picking off Zach Wilson 4 times. They did look weak against the run, letting the Jets gain 152 yards on the ground. This should be a great matchup on Sunday.
Passing game matchup
Jameis Winston is still Jameis Winston. He brings a new and exciting skillset to this offense that they did not previously have under Drew Brees. Brees was ultra efficient but didn’t push the ball down the field which is exactly what Winston does. Week 1 he went 14 for 20 with 148 yards and 5 touchdowns. Their offense was working on all cylinders, adding on 171 rushing yards. The Panthers game was a different story where Winston went 11 for 22 for just over 100 yards and 2 ugly picks. Jameis is knowns to be erratic with his performance and the good comes with the bad, you’d be more likely to predict a coin flip than predict what Jameis you’ll get on any given day. Marquez Callaway got a lot of hype in the preseason, but has been pretty quiet and with Mike Thomas being out for the foreseeable future, the Saints’ receiver group is very thin. Alvin Kamara is the swiss army knife that can move the Saints forward and look for him to get a lot of targets Sunday.
The Patriots and Belichick have claimed another victim. The rookie QB Zach Wilson on Sunday looked lost, throwing 4 bad interceptions. I’d argue most of those were solely on Wilson but I can’t take credit away from the Patriots and JC Jackson for making plays on the ball when they were given the opportunity. This is a Belichick coached defense where if you give an inch, they’ll take a mile. I don’t see where the Saints’ receivers beat the Patriots’ secondary on paper and the tight ends don’t scare me ether. I think Bill sees a clear edge here if they blitz Winston while playing man free or cover zero on New Orleans’ receivers. Jameis isn’t afraid to sling the ball so if a receiver can get separation, he’ll give him a chance to make a play.
I can see the Saints breaking off some big plays, but Belichick’s defense gets a few takeaways to make the difference here.
Advantage: New England
Running game matchup
The Saints know how big the run game is going to be against a stingy Patriots’ defense. They are also watching the film from the Jets game realizing that this Patriots’ front might have some soft spots. The Jets run blocking was much improved so credit to them, but the Saints’ offensive line is one of the best in the league. Tackle duo Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk are the best 1-2 punch in the league and they’ll be looking to bury the Patriots up front. Pair those two with a runner like Kamara and you have a scary thing to game plan for. Sean Payton is one of my favorite playcallers in the league and he knows he’ll have to get creative traveling to New England. Look for them to try and secure the edges behind their big tackles on outside zone runs.
The Patriots’ defense grades out as a bottom four unit against the run according to PFF and its not that surprising if you’ve been watching closely. The pass rush has been impressive so far but they let the Jets young offensive line push them around last Sunday. This New Orleans’ rushing attack is far from young and Payton knows how vital it is to establish the run. It all starts up front for New England highlighted by the fact that Christian Barmore, Davon Goodchaux and Lawrence Guy were constantly getting pushed out of gaps against the Jets. Kyle Van Noy returns this week for the Patriots who was their highest graded run defender in week 1, so that should help shore up the defensive front.
The Patriots no doubt will bounce back, but I trust the Saints to know this is a weakness they need to exploit.
Advantage: New Orleans
I am very much looking forward to this matchup. I think this is the best and most complete team the Patriots have played this year. Both these teams have complete rosters and are hoping to compete for the playoffs by years end. The coaching battle will be one to watch as it is a constant chess match of veterans trying to predict what the other is thinking.
I expect this game to be a “welcome to the NFL” game for Mac Jones, but I don’t think it will be Zach Wilson ugly. They’ll do everything they can to keep him upright and throwing at or behind the line of scrimmage to give their athletes a chance to make plays. I expect Belichick to bait Winston into turning the ball over a few times which wins the turnover battle and is the difference in the game.
Prediction: Patriots-23 Saints-17