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Patriots @ Bills: December 6th, 2021. 8:15 PM
Line: Bills -3, O/U 40.5
It seems like the Patriots have had 10 games we could brand as their “biggest of the year”, but Monday night in Buffalo certainly takes the cake given the circumstances. This is a battle not only for 1st place in the AFC East, but for the number 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture after Baltimore’s loss to Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon. It is shaping up to be a classic.
Lets check out our matchups.
New England defense vs Buffalo offense
Passing game matchup
The Patriots handled the Titans last week 36-13, extending their win streak to six games. It was a somewhat expected result, as the Titans’ offense was missing most it’s key offensive weapons. Ryan Tannehill was shut down completely, only throwing for 93 yards on 21 pass attempts. The coverage in the back end was solid and so was the Patriots’ game plan. They crowded the line of scrimmage with a BEAR front like they did against Atlanta and played a lot of zone coverage behind it. They finished the day with 12 pressures total, 3 of them coming from star addition Matthew Judon. The coverage in the back end was fantastic as well, as JC Jackson nabbed another interception. They succeeded at containing the passing game, but this week is a different monster. As usual, the Patriots’ injury report is loaded with “LPs” and we won’t know the status of the various players on it until later Monday night. However, safety Kyle Dugger is still on the COVID list as of Monday morning and it seems unlikely he will play. This would be a huge blow to New England’s defense as Dugger has been a versatile piece that allows Belichick to mix up looks before the snap. McCourty and Adrian Phillips should be able to cover his absence up a bit, but I cannot emphasize enough how important Dugger has become to this defense, especially with how much Belichick has been changing things up week to week. The Bills are not the beat up Tennessee Titans. They have weapons everywhere and they LOVE to throw the ball. I won’t even try to guess how Bill plans to disrupt Josh Allen and their passing game, but I do expect more zone like we have been seeing with some blitzing to try and revert him back to rookie year Allen.
As mentioned, the Bills are still an explosive offense with weapons everywhere you look. They crushed the Saints 31-6 on Thanksgiving day, giving them even more rest coming into this divisional matchup. Their offense was a machine against a solid Saints’ defense, gaining 21 first downs, going 8/13 on third down with Allen throwing for 4 touchdowns total. He was intercepted twice in that game, bringing his total up to 10 on the year which already equals his total for the 2020 season. Stefon Diggs is having another great season and left Turkey Day with a 7-74-1 statline. He has 7 touchdowns on the year and is getting a lot of attention after his explosion last season. Apart from Diggs, Buffalo also has reliable slot receiver Cole Beasley who can eat underneath, Emmanuel Sanders who can do a bit of everything and Dawson Knox who has proven to be a solid receiving weapon. Don’t get it twisted, this is an offense that revolves around throwing the ball. And why not? We saw what Josh Allen is capable off last season when he went off for an MVP worthy 37 TDs on almost 70% passing. Allen has come down to earth a bit this season as expected by many, but he is still playing really impressive ball. He currently has 25 TDs through the air through 11 games on about 67% passing. What is a bit concerning for Bills fans is that he is averaging about a turnover and a half per game this year. He does not looks like rookie or 2nd year Allen, who sometimes needed a laugh track for his turnovers, but this shows it is still an issue that can rear it’s head at the wrong time. That is not a problem you want to have against this Patriots’ team. I expect the Bills, if they’ve been watching film on New England, to try and expose the weakness in the Patriots’ zones especially with Dugger’s status still up in the air. Look for them to start the game dinking and dunking to set up some deep shots to show off Allen’s arm.
This is a close one. Allen’s propensity for turning the ball over concerns me. Dugger’s status being up in the air concerns me. But with the extra rest and excess of receiving weapons, I’m giving the edge to Buffalo here.
Advantage: Buffalo
Running game matchup
The Patriots’ run defense has been pretty good but inconsistent this year. That inconsistency, along with a straight up weird game, showed up on Sunday against Tennessee. The Titans, without Derrick Henry, gained a whopping 270 yards on the ground. 270! They averaged almost 7 yards per carry and while the Patriots were content letting Tennessee run the clock out themselves, that is a concerning number. It was a combination of things that led to this performance; bad gap integrity by the defensive line, bad angles in the secondary and just straight up bad tackling. The Patriots heavily rotated their defensive front especially toward the end of the game, so that had something to do with it as well, but it is something they need to clean up if they want to make a deep playoff run. As mentioned before, safety Kyle Dugger may not be available for this game which hurts the Patriots in the run game as well. He has rotated in for Belichick’s “big” dime and nickel packages, meaning he’s a player who plays the run well when lined up in the box or deep. Not having Dugger forces Bill to either change his personnel for these defensive packages, or just to run different packages altogether. Luckily for the Patriots, they are not playing a team that is known for running the ball.
As previously mentioned, the Bills do not like to run the ball. They have started to do it more this year, but they still average just 26 rush attempts per game, putting them in the bottom half of the league in that category. The Bills’ most dangerous rusher is probably their quarterback Josh Allen. At 6’5″ and 240 pounds, Allen ran a 4.76 40 yard dash and can make people miss in the open field. The Bills have gone away from using him in designed runs as much as they used to because of obvious injury concerns, but in a game like this I would not be surprised to see Buffalo give him some opportunities to scamper. Aside from Allen, Devin Singletary and Matt Breida are the two running backs that will get the bulk of the carries. They are both capable backs who can take what is given to them but not too much more. Singletary has been with the Bills and Josh Allen for years so he knows the offense and helps in the passing game as a constant check down option. Breida on the other hand is a newer addition. The former San Francisco 49ers‘ back has breakaway speed that he can show off if he breaks one to the second level. Brian Daboll is a smart enough coach to know he needs to get the rushing attack going to keep Belichick’s defense honest, but don’t be surprised to see some end arounds/reverses to start the game to show he can do what McDaniels can do.
I’m going to give this edge to the Patriots. The Bills’ offensive line hasn’t shown me much this year to think they can impose their will on a talented New England front. 270 rushing yards to the Titans is still concerning, but I don’t see a lapse like that happening again.
Advantage: New England
Buffalo defense vs New England offense
Passing game matchup
I feel like I say it every single week, but man was Mac Jones efficient again on Sunday. He was 23 for 32 for 310 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. I also say this every week but I think it bears repeating, Mac Jones spreads the ball around really nicely. He completed a pass to 8 different receivers against Tennessee, including 10 to Jackobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne for over 150 yards. A knock on the build of the Patriots’ offensive roster is that they do not have a true #1 receiver on their roster. While this is true, and a #1 receiver wouldn’t hurt, the collection of receivers that New England has assembled are more than capable of shoulder the load that Mac puts on them. Those receivers, along with Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, create a multi-layered offense that stresses defenses to the max. Also the development of Brandon Bolden has been a pleasant surprise with the swiss army knife that is James White being out for the year. The Patriots’ offense utilizes screens and short passes to running backs a lot and Bolden’s sure hands and YAC ability have been key to the sustained success of the offense. Jones against the Titans had 9.7 yards per attempt, a big step up from where he usually finishes which is around 7 Y/A. This week I see McDaniels pulling back a little bit. The Titans’ defense is scrappy but the Bills defense is arguably the top in the league. Look for a lot of screens and short crossing patterns to get the offense and Mac going early.
The Buffalo Bills come into Monday with the top passing defense in the league, giving up only 275 yards total per game. Opposing quarterbacks’ completion percentage when facing Buffalo is a measly 58%. They are a scary defense to have to play, but they lost their #1 corner Tre’Davious White to a torn ACL in their big win on Thanksgiving. Replacing him will be who I think is one of the more underrated defensive players in the NFL, Taron Johnson. Opposing QB’s passer rating when targeting receivers covered by Johnson is 65.3, according to PFF. I have some confidence in Johnson, but the depth behind him is a problem. Levi Wallace will be the corner opposite of Johnson. Wallace has played a lot this year so it’s not like throwing a rookie out there, but you’d prefer not to lean on him all game. They do have some experience in the back end however with Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde at the safety spots, so look for the to rotate around all night. Up front the Bills will be coming after Mac Jones and coming after him HARD. They have plenty of pass rushers that they’ll rotate throughout the game including Jerry Hughes, Gregory Rousseau, AJ Epenesa and Mario Addison. All these guys have contributed this year and defensive tackle Ed Oliver can rush the passer too, as he has generated 16 hurries and 9 QB hits on the year. Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds round out a really talented Bills’ defense.
The formula for the Bills will be to make Mac uncomfortable and to monitor the short passing game to make Mac Jones hold the ball. If they can do this, it’ll put Mac in a spot he isn’t used to. But I do think the Patriots will try to pick on the depth of the Bills’ corners. This one I truly cannot make a determination on.
Advantage: DRAW
Running game matchup
The Patriots tallied over 100 rushing yards again against Tennessee on Sunday. They only handed the ball off 21 times, which is unusual for them but was a result of the passing game working so well. Rhamondre Stevenson actually led the way with 46 yards on 9 carries, 2 fewer than his backfield mate Damien Harris. The Patriots rarely utilize one workhorse running back, but don’t be surprised if Stevenson starts to get more and more opportunities if he keeps making the most of them. Harris is rock solid and the staff clearly likes him, but I think it is also clear that Stevenson has a higher ceiling. The Patriots’ offensive line has seemingly found their stride, they look a lot more comfortable playing as a unit and are really imposing their will on defenses when they want to. Keeping Hunter Henry on the line to block also has been a trend that I like, especially with how much play action New England runs. Any chance to mislead a defense with a formation and break tendency is a positive. I think the Patriots can run on the Bills. As great as their defense is, they have gotten exposed on the ground a few times. The Patriots will need to control the line of scrimmage if they want to come out with a victory.
The Bills defensive personnel is impressive from top to bottom, there is no denying that. 2 weeks ago, they gave up 264 yards on the ground. A few weeks before that, they gave up 146 on the ground to Tennessee and before that 120 to Kansas City. So this Bills’ defensive front is movable, but it won’t be easy. I mentioned Ed Oliver already, but Star Lotuleli and Harrison Phillips may be even better when it comes to the run game. Lotuleli has been injured for a few weeks but is healthy for this matchup which will be a huge boost for Buffalo up front. Harrison Phillips is a 4th year defensive tackle out of Stanford who has great hands and nimble feet for a 300 pounder. He has 11 run stops on the year(a “run stop” being a play made that constitutes a failure for the offense) and is having the best year of his career, according to PFF. Their leading tackler is Tremaine Edmunds, the young middle linebacker out of Virginia Tech who is a freaky athlete. The Bills absolutely have the dudes to keep the Patriots in check, but the question is can they do it for an entire night?
This is a close one. The Bills’ inconsistency against the run and the times they have been exposed scare me a bit. Trent Brown has been a boost for the Patriots’ offensive line when healthy and the longer they play as one unit, the better they get. I won’t doubt the Patriots to play Patriots’ football in December.
Advantage: New England
It is crunch time. What a matchup this one is going to be.
I think the pressure of this game matters. Both teams know how huge the result of this game will be in the long run. For the Patriots, they have a rookie QB who has played in big games, but not in Buffalo in December. For the Bills, Josh Allen has 3+ years under his belt with a few playoff runs. But that wide eyed turnover machine is still in there somewhere. Bill will get it out if given the opportunity.
Talent wise, the Bills clearly have the edge here. But it is the Patriots we are talking about here. “Talent” only means so much and the clear coaching edge is with the Patriots.
For the Patriots, if they can pound the ball early and often they can dictate the game flow. If you force Mac to try to win the game by himself against this defense, it could get ugly. For the Bills, Josh Allen taking care of the ball will be the key. We know the Bills can move the ball, but can they do it mistake free?
Home field and the gravity of this game matter. Extra rest matters. No Kyle Dugger matters. In a vacuum, I think these two teams are almost evenly matched, even with how different they are. But the few advantages the Bills have push them over the goal line in this one.
Prediction: Bills-23 Patriots-20