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Titans @ Patriots: November 28th, 2021. 1:00 PM
Line: Patriots -7
The Patriots are possibly the hottest team in the league right now. In a year where there is seemingly no alpha in the AFC, New England is making the case for that spot. They take on a really impressive Tennessee Titans team who have been great against stiff competition with some puzzling losses to low quality teams. This should be a good one.
Lets preview the matchups.
New England offense vs Tennessee defense
Passing game matchup
It’s been a while since we’ve seen the Patriots, as they have a long rest coming off of their domination of the Atlanta Falcons last Thursday. It was a complete and utter domination but not because of the passing game. Mac Jones was efficient yet again, passing for 207 yards and a TD with a completion percentage of 84.6. He spread the love around, targeting 9 different receivers including all three of their backs out of the backfield. He was able to add a touchdown to Nelson Agholor on a nice crossing route early in the second quarter, his sole score of the game. He also had an interception on a deep ball that he forced with a stalking safety nearby. Mac has done that a few times over the past several weeks but has mostly gotten bailed out by his receiver with a nice catch or forced incompletion. Jones has executed the offense that Josh McDaniels has given him almost perfectly. McDaniels draws up short screens and creative running plays off of motion to keep the defense on their toes where he can then give Mac an opportunity to throw it down the field. He has improved seemingly every week, springing him into contention for offensive rookie of the year honors. I expect to see more of the same on Sunday.
The Titans lost a very weird, ugly game to none other than the Houston Texans last week. They finished with the edge in every major category and lost because of some key turnovers in big moments. Their defense through the air was fine, allowing Tyrod Taylor to throw for only 107 yards on 58% and no touchdowns. The Titans play a 3-4 base defense that is versatile in the pre-snap looks it can give you and they play multiple coverages. They rank around the middle of the pack in every defensive category but they have a toughness about them that comes from their former New England Patriot head coach, Mike Vrabel. Vrabel and the Titans have dealt with a laundry list of injuries throughout the year and have just found ways to win against seemingly superior competition. This game will come down to the trenches, as the Titans duo of Jefferey Simmons and Denico Autry have 7.5 and 5 sacks on the year, respectively. Former Boston College Eagle Harold Landry III is their premiere EDGE rusher who adds 10 sacks of his own. They are all hardnose, tough defenders who clog up the offensive front, taking pressure off of the back end. They have a bit of a mish mosh of players in the secondary but they’re headlined by safety Kevin Byard who can do a bit of everything and is the leader on defense. Janoris Jenkins and Kristian Fulton have been serviceable at the corner spots but there it not much depth behind them.
This one is close because you can never be 100% sure what you’re gonna get out of the Titans’ defense on any given week. The opposite is true for the Patriots, so give me their uber-efficient offense with long rest.
Advantage: New England
Running game matchup
It’s November and the Patriots are running the ball effectively, who would’ve thought? They averaged almost 6 yards per carry against Atlanta and at times looked like they could have won the game without throwing the ball at all. Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris got the bulk of carries and were both effective, breaking multiple runs to the second level of the defense. Damien Harris is an efficient back who can churn yards and always seems to fall forward. Stevenson looks like something different. He is very quick in and out of his cuts and can move laterally like some of the best young backs in the game. He had a run against Atlanta on Thursday that was Barry Sanders-esque where he was able to dance around behind the line, reverse directions and rip off a big gain. Now Stevenson is not Barry Sanders, but he is a rookie who is still learning how to be a pro and he clearly looks like he belongs athletically. The offensive line was doing what they do best, moving dudes. Also in case you didn’t hear, Trent Brown is back and he is a bully in the run game.
The Titans are top 5 in the NFL in rush defense when it comes to yards per game. A lot of that has to do with the big men up front that I mentioned earlier in Denico Autry and Jefferey Simmons. Their linebackers on the second level are relatively young but very athletic. David Long, a 6th round pick in 2019, is their leading tackler on the year and leads the linebacking corps in snaps by a mile. Kevin Byard is a swiss army knife of a safety who can play deep coverage or come down into the box when they want to make stopping the run a priority. I expect to see a lot of movement and rotation from Byard to throw off box counts and blocking schemes for the Patriots. Health will be something to watch as well as the Titans have multiple contributors already listed as OUT for Sunday’s game including Rashaan Evans and their leading tackler mentioned earlier, David Long. It will be an uphill battle for a battered Tennessee team against a running Patriots team.
The Patriots have imposed their will on just about everyone they’ve wanted to this year. I do expect the Titans to put up more of a fight than previous opponents, but the Patriots will grind away enough for the advantage here.
Advantage: New England
Tennessee offense vs New England defense
Passing game matchup
The Titans’ offensive is going to look quite odd on Sunday for those who have not been following their injury woes. At the beginning of the year, the trio of AJ Brown, Julio Jones and Derrick Henry struck fear into the rest of the league just by hearing their names. Unfortunately for Tennessee, Henry was the only one of the three to stay consistently healthy and now he is essentially done for the season after a foot injury a few weeks ago. All three studs will be out against New England. Lets look at who they do have. Ryan Tannehill has been solid this year for the Titans, especially considering what he has had to work with at receiver. He had a terrible game on Sunday against the Texans, gaining yards on chunk play after chuck play before throwing yet another costly interception. He finished the day with 323 yards but FOUR interceptions to go along with them in a loss. Impressive in the game against Houston was young wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine who finished with 7 catches for 107 yards. The Titans main passing options will be him along with Chester Rogers, Dez Fitzpatrick and Geoff Swaim. Yeah, it’s that bad. Tannehill is a good enough quarterback where this won’t devastate the offense, but he has to be near perfect when it comes to risky throws and long balls. It will be tough to overcome a Patriots’ defense that looks like it has found it’s stride.
The Patriots defense is the heart of this team. Much like previous Belichick defenses, they show every front and pre-snap look you could ever think of. Unlike previous iterations, they have been playing a ton more zone coverage. The versatility that Bill Belichick requires out of his guys has made this a smooth transition and it showed against Atlanta. They ended up with 4 interceptions Thursday night, 2 of them coming from Matt Ryan and the other 2 coming from backups in garbage time. JC Jackson, the ball magnet, ended up with another pick, bringing his total on the year up to 6. They stifled the run game, allowing only 40 yards and allowing 165 total yards over the entire game. Matt Ryan was hobbled and didn’t have a prayer behind his offensive line, but nonetheless it was impressive to see such a dominating performance by a New England D. Christian Barmore had a nice day, totaling 3 pressures up the middle and stuffing a few runs up the middle. Matt Judon continued his monster season, piling up 5 pressures and a sack off the edge.
If the Titans had even one of their big weapons for this game I would think about this one, but they don’t. I think Tannehill is going to be mentally shaken coming off a big loss to an inferior opponent and you don’t want to come into Foxborough like that. Give me the Patriots’ D to keep rolling.
Advantage: New England
Running game matchup
The Titans’ identity was a tough, downhill team who can run the football and play good defense. The added bonus and what made them a contender was how good Ryan Tannehill turned out to be for them. After losing Derrick Henry to injury, their running game has been severely crippled. To fill the hole left by King Henry, they’ve tried Adrian Peterson who is no longer on the team, journeyman D’Onta Foreman and backup Dontrell Hilliard. None of them have been very effective and the X factor that Henry brings with his size and tenacious running style is simply not replicable. The Titans do have Jeremy McNichols, a young back who has some juice and is great in the passing game. As you can probably guess, he is also out for this game, as is starting guard Nate Davis. This game will not be close if the Titans can not get some momentum going on the ground.
The Patriots are creeping up the rankings when it comes to rush defense, as they have been outstanding the past few weeks. They ran a lot of 8 man boxes out of their normal 3-4 look, bringing Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger up to help play the run and disguising coverages to challenge the Falcons. It worked great, as every time the Falcons tried to break a run to the outside there was a Patriot containing it. They have shifted from the week to week inconsistent run defense to one that you have to fear when you see them on your schedule. I see them sticking with what worked last week against a Falcons team whose only weapon was Kyle Pitts. It’s the same this week, but there is no Kyle Pitts. look for them to move up Dugger and Phillips in the box to create an 8 man box look to stop the run, while dropping into coverage, baiting Tannehill to throw a jump ball to a backup receiver.
I see that strategy working again and the Titans being forced to throw it early.
Advantage: New England
Looking at this game 3 or 4 weeks ago had me salivating. The Titans were getting somewhat healthy and it looked like the Patriots were finding their stride. Now with the Titans’ roster resembling more of a hospital than a football team, I don’t have that same feeling.
Last game against the Falcons felt like a sure thing and it was. It never really felt like Atlanta was in the game and the Patriots handled them easily. This week should be different. Even with the injuries, the Titans fight and claw their way into games no matter the circumstances.
I do not see the Titans pulling this one out, but I do think they keep interesting. I see a Titans’ lead at half disappearing as the Patriots come out and execute their way to a 6th straight win.
Prediction: Patriots-24 Titans-16