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Browns @ Patriots: November 14th, 2021. 1:00 PM

Line: Patriots -2

The Patriots look to continue their new winning streak on Sunday with a matchup against the OBJ-less Cleveland Browns. This is a matchup of 2 relatively similar teams and should be one that comes down to the wire in Foxborough.

Lets look at the matchups

New England offense vs Cleveland defense

Passing game matchup

The Patriots‘ dismantling of the Carolina Panthers on Sunday was impressive but was not due to an explosive passing game at all. In fact the passing game was probably the worst aspect of the Patriots’ performance on Sunday. The Panthers have a tenacious defense that got to Mac Jones twice, although throughout the game the New England offensive line only gave up 5 pressures on limited passing plays. Mac is great when he can stay in rhythm and execute the game plan but when he is knocked off of his spot, he struggles. Things will not get easier this week against Cleveland. The Browns have one of the best defenses in the NFL and have depth at all three levels. It is going to be imperative for New England to game plan carefully against the Browns and get the ball out of Mac’s hands quickly. The offensive line will need just about their best performance all season if they want to keep their quarterback upright and in one piece. Especially after the mini-controversy of Mac Jones hurting Brian Burns last week following a strip sack. It probably was not intentional, but he now has a target on his back. If the ferocious defensive front of Cleveland gives the Patriots’ offensive line trouble early, it could be a long day for the rookie quarterback. New England will need to manufacture some advantageous matchups for their athletes and use the screen game to soften the aggressive Cleveland D.

The Cleveland defense might be my favorite unit in the league. They dismantled the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, sacking Joe Burrow 5 times and intercepting him twice. It was a total domination and was a good matchup for Cleveland, but they really showcased what they are capable off against a high powered offense. They didn’t allow one passing touchdown and even had a 100 yard pick 6 courtesy of stud cornerback Denzel Ward. On their defensive line they have probably the best defensive end in the NFL in Myles Garrett and on the opposite side is the freaky athletic JaDeveon Clowney. In the back end they have Denzel Ward and rookie Greg Newsome III at the corner spots with Ronnie Harrison Jr. and John Johnson III at the safety positions. These are all high level starts who make it very hard for teams to get rolling through the air. Standout rookie linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah should be returning for this game which will be big as he is fantastic in coverage and has tremendous range sideline to sideline.

This is a pretty clear advantage for the Browns. They have the athletes to neutralize the downfield passing game and force you to be creative if you want to beat them. If Myles Garrett gets a few one on ones against Isaiah Wynn, Mac Jones needs to watch his back.

Advantage: Cleveland

Running game matchup

The rushing attack was firing on all cylinders with multiple contributors on Sunday, tallying 151 total rushing yards on almost 40 attempts. Leading the way was rookie Rhamondre Stevenson who averaged 6.2 yards per carry and looked strong all day doing it. He unfortunately suffered a concussion and may not be able to go against Cleveland on Sunday. Brandon Bolden contributed as well with only 8 carries but he averaged almost 7 yards per carry on those attempts. It was clear the Patriots’ offensive game plan was to get moving downhill early against an aggressive Carolina front and they did a great job moving bodies to make room for their backs. They earned a 77.0 run blocking grade according to PFF, their second best grade all year. Sam Darnold constantly giving the ball back to the Patriots helped their game plan, but they executed well nonetheless. Unfortunately for the Patriots, they may be without their best two pure runners from the backfield, as Stevenson and Damien Harris were non participants in practice according to Friday’s injury report. Be ready for a heavy dose of Brandon Bolden on Sunday.

UDPATE: As of Sunday morning, Rhamondre Stevenson IS expected to play.

The Browns have a top 3 run defense in the league, allowing only 84.8 rushing yards per game. This is going to be a great matchup of both teams’ strengths. The Browns’ injury report is much shorter that the Patriots’ so they should be fully loaded and ready to go for Sunday. As good as the Cleveland defensive line is rushing the passer, they’re just as good in the run game. They’re anchored in the middle by the two Maliks. Malik Jackson, the former Bronco, takes one of the defensive tackle spots, while young Malik McDowell out of Michigan State takes up the other spot. Their linebacking corps is largely young, but very athletic and rangy. Baker Mayfield won’t put his defense in as bad of spots as Sam Darnold did, but the Patriots will, as always, make a priority out of establishing the run game.

If the Patriots were fully healthy this would be close to a stalemate, but they are not. Both top running backs are likely out and the combination of Bolden and JJ Taylor are not scaring any defenses. Give me the Browns.

Advantage: Cleveland

Cleveland offense vs New England defense

Passing game matchup

Baker Mayfield and the Browns have an attitude about them that I love. Now without Odell Beckham Jr., there is no doubt this offense works better. For a while people were mostly joking when they said Baker and the Browns were better without OBJ, but we have a big enough sample size now to know that is mostly true. Baker tore up the Bengals last week throwing for 218 yards on 66.7% passing and 2 TDs en route to a blowout win. He really only needed to do so much as his defense and the running game could’ve powered them to a win by themselves. He spread the ball around to 8 different receivers including a long bomb for a touchdown to Donavan Peoples-Jones. Peoples-Jones and Mayfield seem to have a great connection and he is now the Browns’ number one receiver so look for him to get more targets as the weeks go on. Slot receiver Jarvis Landry still gets a ton of targets in the short and intermediate passing game and is very effective as a check down and 2nd/3rd option for Mayfield. With OBJ out of the lineup, Mayfield has more freedom to play the game as it comes to him and I think it will make a discernible difference moving forward.

The Patriots harassed Sam Darnold as they have done for his entire career on Sunday. They realistically just ended Darnold’s career as a starting quarterback and if you didn’t see it coming, that is on you. JC Jackson continued his reign as “Mr. INT”, picking Darnold off twice and Jamie Collins got in on the fun, picking off a ball at the line of scrimmage that he had no business making a play on. Baker Mayfield is not an elite quarterback, but he is not Sam Darnold. That being said, he can turn the ball over when trying to do too much similar to Darnold. The Patriots‘ defense has been really interesting to watch this year as it has changed a lot throughout the year. This isn’t new for Belichick, but his bread and butter is usually playing man and scheming up creative pressures to get to the opposing quarterback. The Patriots have been playing a lot more zone coverage than ever before, which I see as a bit of an admission by Bill that he doesn’t have the guys in the secondary necessary to play straight man. I predicted the use of more zone, but I would not put it past Belichick to run some man blitzes to make Mayfield uncomfortable and give JC Jackson a chance to get a takeaway. Pay attention early to how the Patriots’ secondary is playing on Cleveland’s receivers.

This one is tight as both sides have some deficiencies as units. I think New England has the talent advantage though it is not huge. Give me the Patriots to get an important turnover in this one.

Advantage: New England

Running game matchup

The Cleveland Browns love to run the ball and they are very, very good at it. In fact, they are the best rushing team in the NFL, averaging 160 rush yards per game this year. Their combo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is the best in the NFL, though we may not see either of them this Sunday. That would be a huge loss for the Browns, as Nick Chubb is probably the best pure rusher in the entire league at this point. If he can’t go, the Browns will lean on the young third string back D’Ernest Johnson, who has some juice himself. In his one game as the Browns‘ starter, Johnson rushed 22 times for 146 yards against a stout Denver defense. He helped power his team to a win that night alongside backup QB Case Keenum. This Browns’ offense goes as the offensive line goes and in my opinion, they have the best unit in the league. They also just inked new contracts with both of their starting guards, Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller, making it obvious their plans moving forward are to lean heavy on the run game. They run inside and outside zone better than any team in the league and even use a fullback in the gap run game when they want to. If you are a fan of good offensive line play, the Browns are the best team to watch for it. Their line’s ability to wall off defenders and move to the second level is poetry in motion and is extremely hard to beat.

New England held the Panthers to a modest 78 rushing yards on Sunday which is solid but the Panthers offense was a mess overall. They still rank toward the middle of the pack for rushing yards given up per game, but their inconsistency stopping the run is concerning. Belichick loves messing with the injury report, but as of Friday the following players are listed; Jamie Collins (Doubtful), Ja’Whuan Bentley, Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy. I would think everyone plays but Jamie Collins, as he was a non-participant on Friday, but having 4 of your linebackers injured against a team like Cleveland is not good. I like the Patriots’ dudes up front as I think they go 2 deep with defensive linemen who can stop the run, but it is going to take some serious discipline to stop this avalanche of a rushing attack by Cleveland. A guy like Matt Judon could be huge in this matchup, as setting the edge on the Browns’ outside zone runs can be effective in consistently funneling it back inside.

This is a clear advantage for Cleveland. They’ve run on everyone this year and while I think Bill comes in with a plan to stop it, the Browns’ run game is inevitable.

Advantage: Cleveland

I love this matchup and can’t wait to see how it plays out on Sunday. The Patriots’ strength is their run game but they will be shorthanded with the injury to Harris. Will Mac Jones be able to win the game against a killer Cleveland defense? The Browns’ best unit is their offensive line but they’re also out their top 2 running backs, can Belichick figure out a way to stop it and put the ball in Mayfield’s hands to make him win the game? This is gonna be interesting folks.

I see this as a low scoring old school type of game. It’s been agonizing figuring out who will come out on top here. Harris and Stevenson being out is BIG and I just don’t think Bolden has the type of running style for a workhorse type back. I think it comes down to a drive at the very end and the Browns’ defense is just too much for Jones to overcome.

Prediction: Browns-20 Patriots-16