Line: Rams -4.5, O/U 44
Opening Kick Off: The Pats have remained in LA this week after beating the Chargers on Sunday 45-0. Tonight’s game kicks off at 8:20 from SoFi Stadium.
This is the just the 15th time these two franchises have met dating back to 1974. New England holds the advantage in this series 9-5, with the last win coming in Super Bowl 53 (13-3). Super Bowl 36 when the Rams were still in St. Louis is arguably the greatest game in Patriots history and of course, it kicked off the Patriots’ dynasty.
Here are three offensive and three defensive keys for the Patriots tonight.
3 Offensive Keys
1. Get 2 on 1 With Donald: The Patriots have to account for Aaron Donald one very offensive snap. Donald is a game wrecker and he can literally impact the Patriots offense on every single play. The Patriots must double him and be physical with him.
2. Stay away from Jalen Ramsey: The Patriots don’t have a receiver that can consistently separate from Ramsey. Cam Newton must be smart. Stay away from Ramsey as much as possible. Look for the Patriots to motion the receiver to Ramsey’s side a lot in an effort to free him up.
3. Go go gadget! Josh McDaniels must be willing to pull out all the stops so look for the Patriots to have three or four gadgets in this game in an effort to manufacture offense. The Patriots don’t make a lot of big plays. The only way to do it tonight might be trick plays.
3 Defensive Keys
1. Match up in the secondary: The Rams are explosive in 11 and 12 personnel. They run the ball well out of both personnel groupings and the receiving corp of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds is as talented as any in the league. The Patriots will be primarily in nickel and dime a lot in this game.
2. Give Goff different looks: The Patriots need to replicate the game plan from Super Bowl LIII when it comes to pressuring Jared Goff. Give him a bunch of looks, bluff and bail. Do different things to force him to either hold the ball or throw it into double coverage late.
3. Stop the run: The Patriots rank 18th against the run. You know Sean McVay is going to come out trying to run the ball. The Patriots are playing more zone of late. They should help against the run but the Patriots still don’t stop the run the way they should. Especially against 12 personnel.
Final Prediction: Rams 28 Patriots 17: Don’t expect a repeat of Sunday. The Rams will be able to move the ball against the Patriots defense. Los Angeles is balanced. They can run the ball and throw it effectively. They also make big plays. I just don’t see the Patriots stopping them on a consistent basis. Rams win by two scores.