Line: Chiefs -11
Opening Kickoff: The Patriots travel to Kansas City to battle the Chiefs tonight in a game that was rescheduled after it was revealed on Saturday that starting quarterback Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19. The Chiefs also had a positive test of their own as back quarterback Jordan Ta’amu tested positive as well.
Subsequent tests on both teams and personnel were negative. The two teams are going to be tested again on Monday morning. If all goes well, then the game will go on as scheduled.
The two teams are meeting in the regular season for the fourth straight season but this will be their first regular season game in Kansas City since 2014. Coincidentally, that was also a Monday Night game. The Chiefs blew the Patriots out which prompted Bill Belichick to proclaim the next day that the Patriots were “Onto Cincinnati.”
The Chiefs are 19-14-3 all time over the Patriots, including an 11- 3-1 advantage in games played in Kansas City and a 5-1 record at Arrowhead Stadium.
Here are three offensive and defensive keys for the Patriots.
3 Offensive Keys
1. Adjust on the fly: With Cam Newton out and Brian Hoyer starting tonight, Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels has to adjust on the fly. That means that the designed quarterback runs for Newton are out and more base run plays and more pass plays are in. It is not easy pivoting your game plan as a coordinator on short notice but thus is life in this era of COVID. The coaching staff will adjust and the Patriots will be fine.
2. Ball Control: Ground and pound is the name of the game tonight. The Patriots must control the clock and limit Kansas City’s possessions. The best way to help the defense tonight is by running the ball. With Sony Michel out, the onus will fall on Rex Burkhead, J.J Taylor, James White and Damien Harris if he is active. The Patriots have plenty of depth at the position so playing physical and trying to wear down the Chiefs defensive line is the best recipe for success in this game.
3. Get the ball out quick in the passing game: Kansas City does a good job of getting edge pressure and you know with Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, they are going to bring pressure on long downs. It is imperative that the Patriots get the ball out of Brian Hoyer’s hands quickly. Look for an emphasis on three step drop, quick five step drop pass plays and perimeter screens. The Patriots can ill-afford for Hoyer to hold the ball because he will get hit.
3 Defensive Keys
1. Limit the big play: It is always priority number one when you play the Chiefs. You cannot give up big plays. Look for the Patriots to play a lot of Cover 2 Man as they try to be physical with the Chiefs receivers at the line but give their underneath coverage help over the top.
2. Disciplined vs. RPO’s: Kansas City runs more RPO’s than any other offense in the league. The Patriots have to be disciplined against their run, pass options, especially on the backside of inside zone and stretch running plays. Those are the plays Kansas City uses to set up their RPO’s.
3. Sugar Rush: The Patriots have to sugar rush Mahomes. He is a threat to break contain and extends plays both as a runner and as a passer. The Patriots have to pressure him but contain rush him on the outside. The Patriots secondary needs to do a good job of plastering the Chiefs receivers in man coverage as well. If they don’t, he will hit them vertically down the field on big plays.
Prediction: Chiefs 31 Patriots 14: The Patriots are up against it tonight and while I do think they will play tough, I just don’t see an offense that isn’t as dynamic scoring more than two touchdowns. As good as the Patriots have been defensively the last two years, they do not play well against teams that can spread the field and push the ball vertically. Kansas City does it as well as anybody. They will make enough big plays tonight and make enough of them to pull away in the second half and take care of business.