The Patriots welcome Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and the rest of the Cowboys today to soggy Gillette Stadium in what should be the best game of the weekend.
The Patriots are banged up and expected to be without receivers Phillip Dorsett (concussion) and Mohamed Sanu (ankle). The offense will be short handed so expect a heavy dose of Sony Michel in the running game and James White and Julian Edelman in the passing game.
Here are five keys for the Patriots in this one.
1. Commit to the running game: It is going to be nasty today in Foxboro. The Patriots need to commit to running the football and sticking with it. In order to do that, the offensive line needs to rise to the occasion and play well. It is that time of the year. Running the football is key.
2. Protecting the edges: Dallas relies on their defensive ends to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Robert Quinn and Demarcus Lawrence can cause match up problems.
The Patriots have had trouble pass protecting in recent weeks but the return of Isaiah Wynn at left tackle should help today.
Dallas doesn’t do much in terms of blitzing but they do play a lot of games with their defensive line so the Patriots can expect a lot of twists and exchanges up front today.
3. Attack their safeties in the passing game: Dallas plays a lot of Cover 2, 2 man, quarters and variations of those coverages. The key is to attack the safeties in the passing game. If the Patriots can do that, they will get one on one on the outside against the corners. Look for a lot of Cover 2 beaters today. Here’s an example:
4. Match up defensively: Dallas has terrific skill across the board so they present match up problems. The Patriots like you play a lot of man coverage so look for Stephon Gilmore to match up on Amari Cooper. It is what the Patriots do with the other receivers that is the issue. How they match up with Michael Gallup will be key today. I would not be surprised if they doubled him in certain situations.
5. Gap integrity is key: The Patriots defensive line and linebackers must do a good job of gap controlling the line of scrimmage. Dallas has the best offensive line in the NFL. They lean on defenses and wear them down. The Patriots cannot give cut back lanes to either Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard.
Final score: Patriots 20 Cowboys 17: The bad weather will actually help the Patriots in this game. I think they will be able to run the football and make enough plays to win this game. Dallas is good and they will keep it close but it hard to pick against the Patriots today.,