Schedule Day used to be a lot more fun when the Patriots were competitive.
The 2021 Pats’ schedule leaked throughout the day on Wednesday, but became official on Wednesday night when the NFL “officially” announced games for the entire league. When the Patriots were guaranteed to go 12-4, 13-3 or 14-2 almost every season, fans could enjoy circling wins and maybe the occasional loss while making plans for who was coming here Divisional weekend in January.
Now, looking at the 2021 slate and still having no idea who the starting quarterback will be, there’s some very winnable games on the schedule, but there are also some spots where Bill Belichick and the Patriots could get brutally embarrassed.
It’s only May and the actual exercise of going through the schedule trying to predict what will happen months from now is utterly ridiculous, but we’re all going to do it anyway, so here’s what I’m thinking…
WEEK 1 – DOLPHINS @ PATRIOTS (9/12 4:25)
Loss. Unless Mac Jones is starting.
We have no idea what this offense will look like, but I still don’t think Newton can keep up with Miami offensively with Brian Flores scheming against him.On the other side, the Pats’ defense should be a wagon, but as it stands on May 12th, I need to see it before I believe it. If Jones is under center and the offense actually look like the one Josh McDaniels and Brady fluently ran for 20 years, then all bets are off, I just don’t think Belichick starts a rookie in Week 1.
WEEK 2 – PATRIOTS @ JETS (9/19 1:00)
Win. Belichick against a rookie quarterback, even if Cam is the starter we all know how that plays out.
If this defense is as good as it should be, it could be a rough day for Zach Wilson. The Jets have improved on both sides, but even Newton could muster up enough offense (I hope) to beat New York. If Jones is the QB then it’s a blowout.
WEEK 3 – SAINTS @ PATRIOTS (9/26 1:00)
Win. The Saints will probably be going with Jameis Winston at quarterback, so I give Belichick the edge there.
Same thing applies and will throughout the season. If Jones is the quarterback I think the offense looks like a real offense and can fairly easily outscore the Saints. If it’s Newton then I think you’re looking at a pick-fest between he and Winston, whoever turns it over less will win the game, it’ll be ugly.
WEEK 4 – BUCCANEERS @ PATRIOTS (10/3 8:20)
Loss. Come on, you don’t think I’m picking against Brady here do you?
In all seriousness, this is going to be the single most sought after regular season game ticket in the history of Boston sports and possibly North American sports. The storylines will be endless…can you imagine if New England starts 1-2 or 0-3 and decide to go to Mac Jones the week the GOAT returns? Or what if Belichick stubbornly sticks with Newton if they’re 1-2 and they lose by 30 while Brady breaks Drew Brees’ passing record?
On the other side, what if Belichick and his revamped defense are able to embarrass Brady, shutting him down by getting in his face and stifling his still somewhat soft receivers? Of course, Brady’s trump card over Belichick right now is the Super Bowl, but an ass kicking at Gillette would eat at him forever. This week of hype can’t come fast enough for me.
WEEK 5 – PATRIOTS @ TEXANS (10/10 1:00)
Win?
So, if Deshaun Watson is suspended, behind bars, or traded, then I think we’re looking at a random quarterback facing this defense and I’ll take New England all day in that scenario. If Watson is cleared of all wrong doing and he’s playing, no matter how disgruntled he may be there, I give him a shot to take over a game at any point.
WEEK 6 – COWBOYS @ PATRIOTS (10/17 4:25)
Loss. People are doubting Dallas, but not me.
Dak is coming off the serious injury and Zeke was basically dead silent last year. The offense got better, they still have Cooper and now have Micah Parsons as the anchor of their defense. If it’s Jones or Newton I’m not sure either one could put up enough points to match Dallas. This Pats defense will be good, but they won’t be immune to a shootout from time-to-time and I think this is one of those games.
WEEK 7 – JETS @ PATRIOTS (10/24 1:00)
Win. See Week 2 above.
WEEK 8 – PATRIOTS @ CHARGERS (10/31 4:25)
Loss. I’m a huge Herbert fan and that offense is only going to get better.
Again, I know this Patriots defense should be really good, but it’s May and as it stands I don’t think they can go out west and win that game coming off what will be a tough one with Dallas. If not for a couple mistakes and brutal coaching by Anthony Lynn last season L.A. was in that game until late.
WEEK 9 – PATRIOTS @ PANTHERS (11/7 1:00)
Win. Carolina is going to be good again soon, but I just don’t think they have their offense quite figured out yet. If Newton is somehow still the quarterback at this point I’m a sucker for revenge games and think he’d be able to do enough to win. I don’t see Matt Rhule as a defensive coach so if it’s Jones then I think the Pats win by 10 or so.
WEEK 10 – BROWNS @ PATRIOTS (11/14 1:00)
Loss. I mentioned a shootout or two this season, this will be one of them.
Cleveland was a lot closer to the AFC Championship game last year than people remember. I think they got better in the draft and this offense could be elite. There is no longer that Browns stench of losing on them, at least I don’t think so, and with the questions on offense at 1 Patriot Place I don’t know how they keep up. Even if the defense holds Baker and co. to 20 or 24 points, it might be too much.
WEEK 11 – PATRIOTS @ FALCONS (11/18 8:20)
Win. 28-3 broke that Atlanta franchise.
The Patriots could be starting Stidham or Hoyer and they’d still win this game. I genuinely think that Super Bowl broke the souls of Arthur Blank and Matt Ryan.
WEEK 12 – TITANS @ PATRIOTS (11/28 1:00)
Win. I think the whole Titans run is over.
Ending Brady’s Patriots career and going to the AFC title game was the peak for the Titans in my opinion. They feel very 2009-2010 Jets to me, and I think Henry starts coming back to earth. QB aside I don’t think the Titans will do much offensively at Gillette.
WEEK 13 – PATRIOTS @ BILLS (12/6 8:15)
Loss. Monday Night Football in Buffalo, in December? No shot Newton or Jones gets out of there with a W.
Assuming the Bills are good again – and there’s no reason to believe they won’t be – that could be a meaningful game for the Bills as far as playoff seeding goes and if that stadium is allowed to be full, it could be a long night.
WEEK 14 – BYE WEEK
Better late than in Week 5 or 6, right? Still a little bit late for my liking though, Week 10 or 11 would have been perfect.
WEEK 15 – PATRIOTS @ COLTS (12/18 OR 19 TBD)
Loss. Wentz is back with Frank Reich and I believe is due for a bounce back season. On the other side, that Colts defense could have easily made it to the AFC title game last year if its offense was able to do a bit more against Buffalo.
WEEK 16 – BILLS @ PATRIOTS (12/26 1:00)
Loss. I just think Buffalo is significantly better right now and will think that until proven otherwise. The same thing goes here for seeding as well. The Pats may be fighting for a bottom feeder playoff spot while Buffalo could be fighting for the lone bye week that comes with the No. 1 seed.
WEEK 17 – JAGUARS @ PATRIOTS (1/2 1:00)
Win. No chance in hell Belichick loses to Urban Meyer.
It’ll be a cold day in hell before Bill lets that happen in Urban’s first year as a head coach at this level. The rookie s vs. Belichick theory applies here again too. Doesn’t matter who the Pats’ QB is either, I’m not sure the Jags will ever have the same defense they had in 2018 when they should have won the AFC title here.
WEEK 18 – PATRIOTS @ DOLPHINS (1/9 1:00)
Loss. I’ve been scarred by their trips to Miami over the past few seasons.
I think Flores is going to be one of those coaches that ends up being a great find off the Belichick coaching tree and I think he sweeps the season series against his mentor to secure a home playoff game in Miami.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I have them at 8-9, and that’s really only if Cam is still the quarterback. I’ve come around on the Mac Jones pick and if all the pundits that say he’s NFL ready right now are correct, then I think this offense could look much better quicker than we think. The back end of their schedule is brutal though, so if they’re going to compete for a playoff spot they better win some games early or it could get ugly.
They’re still not ready to get back with the true elite teams in the AFC (Kansas City, Buffalo and Indianapolis could all be in the Super Bowl in my opinion) and the growing pains aren’t over yet.
The most glaring thing is only having three prime time games, with one of them being a Thursday night game. Only one appearance on Sunday Night Football and one on Monday Night Football speaks volumes about what the NFL thinks of the Patriots right now, finishing 7-9 will do that.
Happy Schedule Day Pats fans, it’s not what it used to be.