Courtesy of the Los Angeles Chargers

Kickoff: The Patriots are hosting the Los Angeles Chargers for the second straight season. The two teams are playing for the third straight season. Last season, the Patriots lost 6-0 to the Chargers in one of the worst losses of the season. The Chargers are coming off of a come from behind win over the Denver Broncos. The Patriots lost 24-21 to the Bills in Buffalo last week. 

Here are four keys for the Patriots in this game.

1st Down: Carry over last week’s performance: The Patriots played far from a perfect game but it was one of their best performances of the season in the loss to the Bills. The Patriots have to replicate last week’s start offensively. If they can do that, they could find themselves in position to win this game late. 

2nd Down: Be the more physical team: The Chargers are a physical, down hill football team. If the Patriots want to win this game, they need to match their physicality. Getting consistent push along the offensive line and fitting in against the run are keys to this game. The Patriots must control the line of scrimmage. We will find out just how tough this Patriots team is today. Los Angeles is the most physical team they will face since the 49ers. 

3rd Down: Limit yards after the catch: This has actually been one of the Patriots strengths this season as they have allowed the third fewest catches by receivers in the NFL. The Chargers throw a lot of play-action and rely on their receivers to make big plays after the catch. The Patriots must find a way to limit the damage after the catch, especially on third down. Los Angeles is 12th in the league in long passing while the Patriots rank 30th in defending the deep ball. You better believe the Chargers will take shots, especially in plus territory. 

4th Down: Run to win: The numbers do not favor the Patriots when it comes to throwing the ball. Los Angeles is good defensively and they will have no problem getting consistent pressure on Maye and matching up on the back end. The Patriots need to establish Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson early and make the running game the focal point of today’s game plan. If the Patriots can run the ball with some consistency, that could create more opportunities on the outside in the passing game. The Patriots need to find themselves consistently in short yardage and medium situations. 

Extra Point: New England leads the regular season series 24-15-2. The teams have met four times in the postseason with the Patriots holding a 3-1 edge.

Final Drive: On paper, this is a winnable game for the Patriots but they need to match the Chargers physicality and they need to limit the big plays if they want to win this game. Los Angeles has a lot to play for and they will certainly be hungry in what is a must win game for them. I expect the Patriots to keep it close but the Chargers are a better team than the one we saw last December. I like Los Angeles in a close one.