The Patriots finished a frustrating 8-9 season with a 35-23 loss to the Bills on Sunday. Coming off a 10-7 season and a playoff appearance in 2021, there is no other way to classify this season than as a step backward. Worst of all, this New England team did more to get in its own way than any other squad of the Bill Belichick era.
It starts with Belichick himself, who made the call to hire Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run the offense. Judge, hired as quarterbacks coach, had never done that job before. Patricia was the offensive line coach and offensive play caller. He had never been an NFL play caller before, and his only offensive line experience was one season assisting Dante Scarnecchia in the mid-2000s. This decision was concerning from the beginning for two reasons. For one, Judge is an excellent special teams coach and despite the Patriots special teams underperforming under Cam Achord in 2021, Judge was given no role in special teams. Two, and more obvious, neither coach was fully qualified for the role he was taking on. That would always be a concern, but especially so when you have a quarterback in that all-important second season. It is unquestioned that the offensive coaching was a failure for the Patriots this year, with the team taking steps back in points scored, third down offense and red zone offense. Only one offensive player, Rhamondre Stevenson, played better throughout 2022 than he did last season, a failure in development that falls on both coaches and players. The special teams were largely a disaster save for a nice midseason stretch by Marcus Jones returning kicks.
Of the nine games the Patriots lost, it can be reasonably said that they could’ve won at least five, and possibly seven of them, if not for their own mistakes, many of which were of the “un-Patriot like” variety. Just consider:
Week 1 vs Miami: Patriots lose 20-7 despite giving up only one touchdown on defense. A protection miscommunication led to a strip sack touchdown. A more experienced coaching staff and better communication up front (typically a strong point for the Pats) probably prevents that play and leads to enough offensive points to win. A late Nelson Agholor fumble was also a killer.
Week 3 vs Baltimore: The Patriots had the ball TWICE down 31-26 and turned it over BOTH times. One was a Mac Jones interception, the other a Nelson Agholor fumble. The Jones interception was one of three he threw in the second half alone. Agholor developed a habit of dropping passes or causing turnovers at the worst possible moments.
Week 4 vs Green Bay: This overtime loss was the start of Zappe Fever. The key moment in the game was a 1st and 10 at the Patriots 49-yard line in overtime after a 20-yard Marcus Jones punt return. The Patriots were far too conservative in their play calling, including a second down run that Green Bay saw coming. They had already stopped the Packers, so all they needed was a field goal (aka needing the offense to gain about 17 yards) to win. Instead, New England went three and out and the Packers won on the next possession.
Week 12 vs Minnesota: The Patriots had some great offensive moments in this one, but made some key mistakes and were killed by massive special teams mistakes. Hunter Henry not getting out of bounds on the final drive of the first half and Mac Jones taking a bad “sack” cost them a chance to have multiple shots into the end zone. Up 23-16 in the second half, the Patriots gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown. Then, when the game was tied 26-26, New England forced the Vikings to punt. Pierre Strong made a poor play and ran into the punter, giving the Vikings a first down. They promptly went down the field and scored a touchdown. Eliminate the two bad special teams plays and they win.
Week 15 vs Las Vegas: We all know how this game ended. Just as bad, the Patriots had the Raiders facing a 4th and 10 coming out of the two-minute warning and gave it up. They also allowed a blocked punt that led to a touchdown and botched a 1st and Goal possession in the first half, with timeouts and penalties taking multiple touchdowns off the board.
Week 16 vs Cincinnati: Part of this one being close was the Bengals taking their feet off the gas pedal, but the Patriots still had the ball in the red zone with a chance to take the lead late in the game before Stevenson fumbled.
Week 18 vs Buffalo: Not one, but TWO kickoffs were taken back for touchdowns by the Bills. Mac Jones threw three interceptions, one of them at the goal line. The defense played well for most of the game, but gave up two long touchdown passes in the second half, one of which was due to some sort of missed assignment or miscommunication involving Myles Bryant on John Brown.
That’s seven out of nine losses where either stupid mistakes or turnovers cost the Patriots a reasonable chance to win. This is not to say they would have won all seven, I don’t think they would have. But even if they’d won, say, three of them, New England would be an 11-win team and in the playoffs.
So, the question is, why did they make all these mistakes?
This was a collective failure. New England players, especially on offense and special teams, too often did not do the little things right and made fundamental mistakes. This is a sign of poor coaching, but also players who lacked the type of razor-sharp focus that wins games in the NFL. The offense was also unimaginative and often reactionary, a clear sign of a coaching staff out of its depth and a quarterback unable to compensate. The Patriots were also slow to adjust at times, another season killer in the NFL.
In fairness, they gave a lot of playing time to young players, many of whom showed long term potential. However, their issues on offense and special teams went far beyond that. And how long do we have to watch mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields shred the Patriots before they find a way to slow them down?
The Patriots finished just below .500 for the second time in three years. As with any team that hovers around the middle of the pack, there are many reasons for mediocrity. They made a lot of avoidable and correctable mistakes. The good news is that New England is not far from being a playoff team if they can just get out of their own way. The bad news is they don’t look like they have the requisite coaching and players to correct all of them. The Patriots can be a contender again, but they have a lot of work to do in the next six months to get there.