The 2016 season kicks off this weekend. Here are some thoughts on each division in the AFC and who I think will come of the conference.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots: You can go ahead and doubt the Patriots. I dare you! New England will be fine as long as OC Josh McDaniels calls plays that cater to Jimmy Garoppolo’s strengths. He’s not Tom Brady so asking him to hold the ball and make multiple reads would be a bad idea. The Patriots defense is top five caliber and they will carry this team until Brady gets back. The Pats will be 3-1 after week four. No need to panic New England.
2. New York Jets: The Jets have a brutal six game stretch to start the season but they have enough talent to come out of it with at least a 3-3 record. Offensively, New York will be more dynamic with Matt Forte in the backfield but the offensive line is a concern. Defensively, the Jets need to be more consistent. The talent is in place but consistency was a problem last season, especially down the stretch.
3. Buffalo Bills: The Bills have waaay too many question marks and injuries to win this division but they will compete because they are well coached. GM Doug Whaley paid Tyrod Taylor like an elite quarterback but Taylor has to prove it this season. If the Bills can score 24-28 points a game on average and the defense can keep it together the first eight weeks, they’ ll be in the mix.
4. Miami Dolphins: The Fish will be better under Adam Gase but how much better will come down to Ryan Tannehill taking that final step and becoming an elite quarterback. If Gase can get more out of Tannehill, the Dolphins will surprise people in the AFC. If he struggles, the Dolphins will struggle because they don’t have a good enough defense to carry them.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens: I’m driving the Ravens bandwagon! I truly believe they are the second best team in the AFC behind the Patriots. B-More is finally healthy and they are well coached. If Joe Flacco and the offense are consistent and the defense returns to form, this is a team that could make a deep playoff run.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers still have plenty of talent on hand to compete in the AFC but the suspensions of LeVeon Bell and Martavius Bryant will have a negative affect on this team. The Steelers are well built in all three phases of the game and they have depth but I’m not sure this team is talented enough, especially on defense to get any further than the divisional round.
3. Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals will take a step back, they have to. Cincy lost a lot of key pieces from last season’s team. Gone are offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, wide receivers Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu and free safety Reggie Nelson. You don’t replace a coach and players of that caliber that easily. It will take the Bengals time to break in new personnel, especially on offense. As a result, they’ll take a step back.
4. Cleveland Browns: Hue Jackson will do a good job in Cleveland. I believe in him as a coach. If Browns fans are patient and the front office doesn’t screw it up with their B.S analytics, this team will improve. I don’t agree with NFL Network’s Brian Billick that the Browns could go 0-16. This team is good enough to win three or four games but that’s it. They’ll be picking in the top five again in next year’s draft.
AFC South:
1. Indianapolis Colts: The Colts ability to bounce back as a team and turn things around will solely depend on the health and effectiveness of Andrew Luck. If Luck is healthy and can get back to playing at the level we were all accustomed to seeing two years ago, the Colts will contend. If Luck struggles to bounce back, then the Colts will struggle collectively. I’m banking on Luck bouncing back. That’s why I picked the Colts to win this division. The defense will have to play much better however if the Colts want to turn things around.
2. Houston Texans: The Texans finally have a quarterback in Brock Osweiler and they have the skill around him to be a contender in the AFC. On paper, this team has as much talent as any in the NFL. Yet, I feel like something is missing. Houston will take the Colts down to the wire but if they don’t win the division, they don’t make the playoffs.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: New year, new Jags. Its a familiar refrain in recent years. In all seriousness, the Jags will be better but will they improve enough to make the playoffs? I don’t see it. The offense will once again be explosive with Blake Bortles, the Allen Brothers and a slew of running backs but I still don’t buy the defense. General manager David Caldwell spent a lot of owner Shad Khan’s money this off-season to improve the defense but I still don’t think it’ll be enough to get this team in the playoffs.
4. Tennessee Titans: And bringing up the rear in the improved AFC South, the Tennessee Titans. Look, the Titans will be better despite the fact that Mike Mularkey is coaching the team. There is too much talent on hand for him to screw it up. That being said, the Titans are still lacking in certain areas, especially on defense. I see Tennessee winning six to eight games at best.
AFC West
1.Denver Broncos: I’m not exactly on board with Trevor Siemian as the starting quarterback. In fact, I don’t think he’ll finish the season as the starter. Regardless of who the quarterback is, they’ll have a strong running game with C.J Anderson and a great defense to support them. Denver will not be as good as they were last season but this team is still talented and well coached.
2. Oakland Raiders: Sign me up! I’m buying the Raiders. I’m on the bandwagon big time. This team is loaded with talent and poised to break out. If Jack Del Rio doesn’t screw it up with goofy decision making, Derek Carr and company will make a run in the AFC West and they could be a dark horse Super Bowl contender. YES! I’m jumping the shark on the Raiders.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are going to once again be in the hunt for the AFC West title and a playoff birth. Its tough to dismiss a team that won ten games in a row last season but with the emergence of the Raiders and the Broncos bringing back a good core of talent, the Chiefs are the forgotten team in the division. Kansas City will be in the mix in the AFC until the last week of the season but I just don’t see them getting into the playoffs. Then again, we dismissed them when they were 1-5 last season and they went on a historic run.
4. San Diego Chargers: The Chargers face uncertainty as they prepare to play what could be their final season in San Diego. You know what you will get out of Phil Rivers and the passing game. Melvin Gordon and the offensive line need to play better. If Gordon turns into the back the Bolts thought they were getting, San Diego will field one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Defensively, the Chargers should be better but defensive coordinator John Pagano needs to work on limiting the big plays. San Diego could find themselves in the playoffs but a lot has to go their way.
Predictions:
Playoff Teams: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Steelers, Raiders
Wild Card Round: Colts over Raiders, Broncos over Steelers
Divisional Round: Patriots over Broncos, Ravens over Colts
AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Ravens