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Kickoff: It’s another must-win game for the 4-4 Eagles hosting 6-2 Syracuse. BC has three games left after Saturday and two of them are against ranked teams in Pitt and SMU. The other is against UNC, which means that if BC is going to avoid complete disaster and make a bowl game this year, this matchup against the Orange is massive.
1st Down: Which TC do we get on Saturday? Do we get the smart, decisive, accurate TC? Or do we get the TC that forces throws deep or over the middle, isn’t nearly quick enough with his decisions and is just all around average at best? BC’s offense has struggled to find consistency and it’s because the guy leading the way has also struggled to be a consistent player. He needs to have a big game, with his arms or legs, it doesn’t mater. He Castellanos just simply can’t turn the ball over.
2nd Down: The run defense has been the biggest issue for weeks and Syracuse has the second-worst rushing offense in the ACC. The Orange average 95.3 yards per game. Only FSU (76.1) is worse. For comparison, BC has the eighth-best rushing attack with 158.4 yards per game. ‘Cuse has just 762 yards total on the ground and 12 rushing TD’s. Absolutely cannot let this team control the clock and run all over you. BC’s rushing defense is currently 10th in the ACC having given up 140.6 yard per game, 4.1 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns.
3rd Down: Can Tim Lewis adjust? This defense has struggled to adjust once teams figure them out over the last three weeks. Now, in fairness, missing some key personnel on that side of the ball makes those coaching adjustments tough – especially at linebacker – but it feels like after the first three or four weeks Lewis has struggled as much as his unit has. It’d be nice to see him take care of some of those doubts fans now have regarding him today too.
4th Down: If BC can’t get Kyle McCord to rush and make a few mistakes he could pick them apart. McCord and the Orange have the ACC’s second-most prolific offense with 349 yards per game. ‘Cuse also has the seventh-best scoring offense with 31.8 points per game. McCord is second in the ACC with 345 yards per game and has 21 touchdowns, but he does also have 12 interceptions. The turnovers are there if the front four can make life hard on him. Trebor Pena and Jackson Meeks are fourth and fifth in the ACC in receiving, so this will certainly be a tough challenge for this banged up and young secondary. Pass rush (or lack thereof) will probably determine how much success BC has on defense.
Extra Point: Even if the defense does contain McCord a bit, I find it hard to believe the Orange don’t at least get to 28 or so. BC is averaging just 26.4 points per game. Can the Eagles keep up with ‘Cuse? BC has scored just 210 points this season, with 56 of those coming against Duquesne. If the Eagles have any shot in this ball game, TD’s and not field goals will be crucial. Lengthy drives to give this defense a rest are going to be important too, BC has had far too many three-and-outs the last few weeks (really, all season).
Final Drive: Punting, the return game, defending the return game. It’s all on the table right now for a poor special teams unit. Not to mention, the Eagles have still just attempted ONE field goal all season. I’ve called for it all year and it’s going to happen eventually…it’s going to come down to a field goal in the final seconds and no one has a clue what to expect. It’d be nice to see special teams actually contribute in a positive way this week, especially by not handing Syracuse excellent field position and putting the defense in immediate holes.
Prediction: Syracuse 34, BC 20 – I just don’t have a lot of confidence in either side of the ball right now. I hope I’m wrong and they look different out of the bye, but I think the injuries and lack of depth on defense – particularly at CB and LB are just too much to overcome right now.