The Patriots beat the Bills and the elements three weeks ago in their 14-10 win on Monday Night Football.
New England’s ground game was the story as the Patriots rushed for 222 yards on the ground. Quarterback Mac Jones only completed 2 of 3 passes for 19 yards.
The Patriots lead the all time series 77-45-1. They are 39-22 at home against Buffalo, including a 16-3 record at Gillette Stadium.
Today’s game is a must win for a variety of reasons. If the Patriots win, they all but lock up the AFC East. If the Bills win, they are back in the drivers seat. Buffalo has an easier remaining schedule.
Here’s what you need to know about the Bills.
Head Coach: Sean McDermott
Offensive coordinator: Brian Daboll
Defensive coordinator: Leslie Frazier
Special Teams: Heath Farwell
Offense
The Bills will run Josh Allen on power plays, perimeter run plays , quarterback draws, option plays and zone read running plays. Allen is a factor in the run game.
Despite the weather that is being forecasted, the Bills will still look to push the ball vertically in the passing game. Allen has the arm strength to cut through the gusty winds.
Buffalo runs the football to give the offense some balance. They are a 65-35 pass to run team. The run allows them to keep teams honest and off their receivers.
The Patriots can expect some gadgets tonight. Daboll is a former Patriots assistant so he will have tricks up his sleeve.
Expect the Bills to utilize a lot of empty formations and mix and match their personnel out of the formation in an effort to generate match ups in the short and intermediate passing game.
Defense
The Bills are a 4-3 base but they will play some 20 and 30 fronts as well. Buffalo plays a bunch of nickel coverages so the Patriots will primarily get a 40 front but when they go dime, they’ll be in their 30 fronts.
The Bills blitz a decent amount but not like a lot of other teams. Instead, they rotate six defensive lineman, keep them fresh and try to get as much base pressure as possible.
With TreDavious White out for the season with a torn ACL, Cameron Lewis will take his spot. The Patriots will target him early so don’t be surprised if Buffalo tilts coverage to his side and helps him.
Buffalo will play a lot of Tampa 2 coverage, especially on second and third down situations. They like to drop seven into coverage as much as possible.
The Bills will not play a ton of man coverage but if they get the Patriots into some long down situations, they will play some Cover 2 man.
Depth Chart (Courtesy of Ourlads)
