Image via NFL.com
Follow me on twitter @zcarey13
Cowboys @ Patriots: October 17th, 2021. 4:25 PM
Line: Patriots +3.5, O/U: 50.5
The Patriots have a big matchup with one of the titans of the NFC as they take on the Cowboys at 4:25 in Foxborough on Sunday. It will be a tough game for the Patriots as the Cowboys have won 4 games in a row and are 2 points away from being undefeated. The Patriots struggled but ended up with the win against a paltry Texans team last week so they’ll be looking to right the ship against Dallas.
Lets break down our matchups.
New England offense vs Dallas defense
Passing game matchup
The Patriots‘ passing game was good enough last week to squeak out the win considering they were playing from behind most of the game. The patchwork offensive line held up nicely, only allowing 1 sack and 9 pressures total. All things considered, the offensive line was impressive enough to get the win, even if most of them were designated as depth before the Patriots’ COVID issues. Mac Jones was efficient yet again, throwing for a completion percentage of 76.7% with 230 yards and a touchdown. He also spread the ball around and went through his reads well, hitting 8 different receivers on the day. Hunter Henry had a strong showing as well, breaking off 6 catches for an average of 12.5 yards and catching Mac’s lone touchdown. It was an encouraging day for the passing attack as the Patriots had to manufacture a comeback against Houston down the stretch. The Patriots should have some of their missing offensive lineman back for Sunday’s matchup but as of Friday’s injury report Shaq Mason is out and Justin Herron is questionable.
The Cowboys‘ defense has been much improved this year, but as of week 6 rank dead last in passing yards allowed per game. Dallas has found themselves in offensive shootouts most of this season, so teams have been forced to let the ball fly a lot which contributes to their abysmal PYA ranking. In fact, according to PFF, their pass coverage grades out as top 5 in the league. They’re led by Trevon Diggs, a ball hawking corner who is having a career year with 6 interceptions already. His QBR allowed while targeted is a measly 38.9 according to PFF‘s advanced statistics. As Bill Belichick said during the week, “Cornerback is a confidence position” and Diggs‘ confidence is sky high. The Cowboys are tied with the Bills for the NFL lead in takeaways and are taking pride in that under defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. Micah Parsons, the rookie first round pick for the Cowboys, has been flying around early in the season and can play multiple positions on the defensive side of the ball. Dan Quinn comes from a zone/cover 3 heavy coaching tree but uses multiple defenses and disguises them well. They’ll be tough to gameplan for due to the multiple looks they can line up in.
This might be the toughest test Mac and McDaniels have faced yet. I think Josh protects him by giving him easy half field reads and short throws to take advantage of the bend don’t break Dallas defense. I don’t think that’s enough however considering the Patriots already have a fumbling problem and Mac has made some risky throws the past few weeks that highlight his inexperience.
Advantage: Dallas
Running game matchup
The Patriots‘ run game was much better on Sunday against the Texans, rushing for 126 yards at a pace of 4.2 yards per carry. Damien Harris looked good, getting 13 carries to pace the team with a touchdown but had a costly fumble that almost cost them the game in the long run. That was his second fumble of the year and came right at the goal line. The rookie Rhamondre Stevenson ended the day with 11 carries but didn’t make much out of it, only averaging 2 yards per tote. The offensive line was better than expected in the run game, but the consistency still is not there to give the Patriots the ability to take over games with the rushing attack. They’ll need to get it established early against Dallas to not turn the game into a shootout that needs to be dealt with through the air.
Statistically, Dallas is top 5 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed through week 5. They haven’t had too many tough tests as they played the pass happy Bucs and Chargers as well as the Giants and Panthers without their star running backs. To give the Cowboys credit, they have one of the best linebacker units in the league including rookie Micah Parsons, Leighton Vander Esch and former Atlanta Falcon Keanu Neal. Standout defensive end Randy Gregory is also questionable to go on Sunday with a knee injury and the Cowboys are already dealing with injuries to their defensive line depth. The Cowboys will know the Patriots’ desire to establish the run early and will key on it from the first snap.
This is a close one but I think New England knows how vital it is to get their line moving downhill early especially against an explosive and opportunistic Dallas team. Give me the Patriots to finally break open their running game.
Advantage: Slight New England edge
Dallas offense vs New England defense
Passing game matchup
The Cowboys’ offense is absolutely rolling this year with no sign of stopping. They are led by one of my personal favorite players in Dak Prescott who is poised to run away with the comeback player of the year award this season. He’s averaging 273 yards per game on 73% passing for 13 touchdowns. He sliced up the Giants last week to tune of 302 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 44-20 victory. His receiving weapons Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb have been well advertised this season and are next level type of athletes who can explode for a big play at any time. What might be more impressive is that Dak is not leaning on them at all, he is spreading the ball around without a hiccup. Tight end Dalton Schultz has been broken out the past few weeks as one of Dak’s favorite targets and is making the most of his targets. There is not much that hasn’t been working for Dallas on offense, the screen game with their two talented running backs is rolling, the middle of the field is being picked apart by Dak and the deep ball has looked great with their talented receivers.
The Patriots‘ defense looked pretty much as bad as they’ve looked all year against Houston. They made the Texans‘ offense look capable and gave Davis Mills, a third round draft pick, a career day. He ended the day with 312 yards and 3 touchdowns with no turnovers. A bright spot was that the defensive front put some pressure on Mills, specifically Matt Judon. Judon is looking worth the money so far as it seems anytime a play is being made in a big moment, Judon and his red sleeves are involved. Cowboys’ left tackle Tyron Smith is questionable to play due to a neck injury so if he is out, it’ll be an area New England will look to exploit. At points during the Texans game it felt like anytime a ball was released downfield by Mills, his receivers had a few yards of separation and made the catch without difficulty. It would be one thing if the Texans had talented receivers but their two leading pass catchers were Chris Moore, who went over 100 yards, and Chris Conley. This is a big issue, especially after a great day in coverage against a far superior receiving core in Tampa Bay. The Patriots like to play a lot of cover 1 and cover 0 and if they perform in coverage like they did in Houston against Dallas on Sunday, they will be in a lot of trouble.
Give me the Cowboys‘ explosive passing attack against a sputtering Patriots secondary.
Advantage: Dallas
Running game matchup
America’s team in Dallas have reestablished their identity as a hard nose run the ball football team. They average OVER 172 yards per game on the ground, good for second in the NFL behind only the Browns. It hasn’t only been Ezekiel Elliott shouldering the load this year either as 3rd year back Tony Pollard has been showing what he can do and is actually averaging 6.3 yards per carry to Elliot’s 5.3. They torched the Giants last week for 201 rushing yards and this Dallas offensive line is run blocking like their hair is on fire. As of Friday, Zeke Elliott is questionable with a rib injury he suffered from falling on a pylon against the Giants on Sunday but I would be very surprised if he didn’t play. If he doesn’t go, Dallas should still be able to run the ball effectively with Pollard as their workhorse. The combo of this run game with how Dak Prescott is playing is a recipe for an unstoppable force of an offense.
The Patriots‘ run defense has leveled out a bit this year as they currently stand in the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the league. They were mostly diced up by Davis Mills through the air last weekend which is its own problem, but part of their comeback effort was stuffing the run Houston was trying to bleed the clock with and they did that successfully. Inconsistency has plagued the Patriots on seemingly every side of the ball this year, especially stopping the run. They were outrushed by the Jets, Buccaneers and Saints this year by wide margins which makes you question what it is that’s causing problems since those are three very different teams with unique schemes. If they can’t stop the Dallas offensive line and their talented backs, I don’t see a way they win this game. I’m going to be very interested to see how Bill plays the Cowboys because keeping one high safety deep and adding a man to the box leaves you vulnerable down the field.
Dallas has outrushed every single team they have played this year and if they keep this up they have realistic Super Bowl aspirations. They’ll make it a point to get their line moving downhill early and they will do that successfully.
Advantage: Dallas
I am VERY bullish on Dallas this year. Their defense is not at the top of the league, but it is much improved and is leading the league in takeaways which is how you win games in the NFL. The offense is firing on all cylinders and Dak Prescott is not only playing like the CPOY, he is picking up right where he left off last year when he was on an MVP pace. Their offensive line is healthy and rolling in the run game and pass game and I don’t see that stopping anytime soon with the hogs they have in the trenches. Look for them to establish the run early and soften up the secondary for their pass catchers.
For the New England Patriots the story of their season has been inconsistency. Costly fumbles and defensive mistakes have caused them to be in close games that shouldn’t be close and lose games that shouldn’t be lost. It is a tough test this week with a red hot Dallas team but I think they can move the ball. Mac Jones has been efficient but has had some turnover worthy plays the past few weeks that have not been taken advantage of by the defense. I am going to be looking closely at how Bill plays the Cowboys offense because of how many ways they can hurt you. Does he load the box to stop the run with cover 1 and cover 0? Or does he play cover 2 man to defend the pass and hope his front 7 can stop the run on its own? Unfortunately I don’t think anyone has found a blueprint to stop the Cowboys but if anyone could do it, it’s Belichick.
A close game throughout, this one is decided by Dallas winning the turnover battle and icing the game on the ground late.
Prediction: Dallas-31 New England-23