By John Sarianides
The insanity that is free agency is upon us. The money will start flowing at 4pm tomorrow and there will be plenty to go around.
Here are my top 30 free agents and where I think they will end up.
1. Brandon Williams, NT, Baltimore: Williams is a precious commodity in today’s NFL. A run stuffing nose tackle who can also rush the passer. The Giants broke the bank last off-season for Damien Harrison and it paid dividends for them. The Ravens want to re-sign Williams but he will get a better offer elsewhere. The 49ers would love to add a shade nose tackle who can play between Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner. Williams would be a great fit. Prediction: Williams moves west and signs with the San Francisco 49ers.
2. A.J. Bouye, CB, Houston: Bouye went from a nickel corner in 2015 to a starting corner and Pro Bowler in 2016. He can play in press, man to man coverage and is just as effective playing off in Cover 3 or quarters. Teams are hesitant to pay corners on one year of production (See Larry Brown) however Bouye is a good all around player. He will get a big money deal. Prediction: Bouye stays in the division and signs with the rival Jacksonville Jaguars.
3. Nick Perry, OLB, Green Bay: Perry picked the right time to have a breakout season. He finished with 11 sacks last season and was arguably the Packers best defensive player. Green Bay would like to keep Perry but GM Ted Thompson doesn’t usually break the bank for his own free agents unless he thinks they are a core player. If the Packers felt Perry was a core player, they would have already extended him. He is a goner. Prediction: Perry will end up signing with the Indianapolis Colts and fortifying what has been a suspect front seven for a long time.
4. Dont’a Hightower, ILB, New England: Hightower will have plenty of suitors for his services including the Patriots. Despite the perception around the league that Hightower is leaving, I think he likes it in New England and would be willing to take a little less money to stay. Bill Belichick didn’t jettison Chandler Jones and Jaime Collins for nothing. He did it because he values Hightower more. I have changed my mind on Hightower. I think the Patriots will end up re-signing him. Prediction: Hightower is a key piece for the Patriots defensively and they will re-sign him as a result.
5. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota: Peterson doesn’t appear to have much of a market thanks in large part to the fact that he has missed two of the last three seasons and he is coming off of a knee injury. The Raiders and Vikings appeR to be the two teams that seem to be most interested in Peterson right now. Prediction: Peterson will end up back in Minnesota. Peterson wants to be there and the Vikings want him back. It is a matter of figuring out the money.
6. DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington: It is amazing that a receiver who has had the injury issues that DeSean Jackson has had is so highly coveted on the open market. Jackson can still run and take the top off of a coverage but he also disappears for stretches at a time. That is still important to coaches around the NFL. I think Jackson will have four or five teams interested in his services but in the end, he will sign with the Buccaneers.
Prediction: The Bucs are in the market for a number two receiver and Jackson fits the bill opposite Mike Evans.
7. Dontari Poe, NT, Kansas City: Poe has had a quiet market, which is surprising given the fact that he is one of the best pure nose tackles in the NFL. According to league sources, Poe is willing to take a one year, prove it contract. If he is going to do that, he might as well go back to Kansas City. Prediction: Poe re-signs with the Chiefs and re-establishes his value.
8. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago: Jeffery will have no less than five suitors which is surprising when you think of his PED suspension and injury history. Despite those issues, Jeffery is a big target who can go up and win 50/50 balls. Teams are willing to pay for that in this market including the Bears. I think Jeffery ends up staying put in the Windy City. Prediction: Jeffery re-signs with the Bears and becomes a key piece in their rebuilding efforts.
9. Kevin Zeitler, OG, Cincinnati: Zeitler is the best guard on the market and one of the most underrated free agents available. He is a solid run blocker who is technically sound in every area of his position. The Bengals would like to retain him but the odds of that happening are slim. Zeitler will get more money elsewhere. Prediction: Zeitler takes the money and runs to Jacksonville where he will fortify a suspect Jaguars offensive line.
10. Mike Glennon, QB, Tampa Bay: Everyone associated with the Bucs raves about Glennon and his work ethic. He has the make up to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Given the fact that there are no viable trade options for quarterback needy teams and a mediocre quarterback class in the draft, Glennon should cash in. $14-15 million per season is not out of the question. Prediction: Glennon ends up in Chicago as the centerpiece of the Bears rebuild.
11. Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona: Campbell has been a loyal soldier to the Cardinals but it appears his time in Arizona is up. He can get more money elsewhere and he will. There are several teams that are interested in him. At 6-7 285, he offers scheme versatility and can play in any front. Teams are willing to pay for that. Prediction: The Dolphins bring Campbell home to play next Ndamukong Suh.
12. Terrelle Pryor, WR, Cleveland: Pryor has stated that he likes playing in Cleveland and he likes playing for Hue Jackson. There will be other teams interested in his services but the Browns can offer him the most money and in the end, that is all that matters to Pryor. Prediction: Pryor stays in Cleveland and continues his run as the Browns primary target in the passing game.
13. Stephon Gilmore, CB, Buffalo: Gilmore struggled at times last season but he is a big, rangy corner who can play in man and zone coverage. He will get more money in the open market than he should. Prediction: Gilmore will find it tough to convince a contender to over pay him. That is why he will settle on the Cleveland Browns. They will be in the neighborhood of $12-14 million he is seeking annually.
14. Logan Ryan, CB, New England: Bill Belichick would like to re-sign Logan Ryan but he knows Ryan will garner interest in the open market. I don’t think Ryan will get Janoris Jenkins type money but he could get a similar deal to what Casey Hayward got from the Chargers last off-season (3 years $15 million) Prediction: Ryan ends up in Tennessee. The Titans need cornerback help and Ryan is in their ballpark in terms of what they can afford.
15. Rick Wagner, OT, Baltimore: Wagner is a right tackle only but as he proved last season, he is a very good right tackle. He will cash in big time in the open market. Wagner would be a great fit with the Denver Broncos. With $36 million in cap space, Denver has enough wiggle room to sign Wagner. Prediction: The Broncos offensive line needs to be upgraded and Wagner would be a good starting point.
16. Tony Jefferson, SS, Arizona: Jefferson had a terrific season in 2016. He was the Cardinals best defensive back. Arizona would like to keep Jefferson but they will face stiff competition in the open market. Prediction: Jefferson heads east after signing with the Jets. New York can use some leadership and toughness in their secondary. Jefferson would provide it.
17. T.J. Lang, OG, Green Bay: I doubt T.J Lang returns to Green Bay. The Packers would like to keep Lang but given his age and injury history, it is highly unlikely. Lang will move on. Prediction: Lang joins former teammate Josh Sitton in Chicago with the Bears.
18. Martellus Bennett, TE, New England: Bennett wants $9 million a year. He will not get that from the Patriots or any other team for that matter. Bennett could however find a team to give him $7.5-$8 million a year. If Bennett gets that kind of an offer, he should take it. Prediction: The Jets haven’t had a starting caliber tight end in a long time. Bennett would fill that void nicely. They’ll offer him $7 million a year over four years and he will take it.
19. Erik Walden,OLB, Indianapolis: Walden played well for the Colts during his time in Indy. Unfortunately for him, most people didn’t notice because the Colts were so bad on defense. Teams in need of a pass rusher know how good Walden is so he will have suitors. I sense a return to Green Bay. Prediction: With Nick Perry bolting for the Colts, the Packers bring back Walden to replace him.
20. Riley Reiff, OT, Detroit: Reiff hasn’t been the franchise left tackle the Lions were hoping for but he is a good player and he is steady. GM Bob Quinn wants to build from the inside out. That is why the Lions will ultimately re-sign Reiff. Prediction: Reiff will have a limited market. Staying with the Lions is his best bet.
21. Barry Church, SS, Dallas: Church has quietly emerged as one of the best strong safeties in the league. The Cowboys would like to retain him but they have very little cap flexibility. Church will head east and sign with the up and coming Buccaneers. Prediction: Church would provide some stability and a veteran presence on the back end for the Bucs.
22. Matt Kalil, OT, Minnesota: Kalil has been a disappointment but he is tall, athletic and still young. If he can avoid the injury bug, Kalil might live up to his potential. A move to right tackle might be beneficial. Prediction: Kalil’s brother Ryan is in Carolina. The Panthers are in the market for a right tackle and could get the younger Kalil relatively cheap.
23. Kenny Stills, WR, Miami: Stills emerged last season as one of the best deep threat receivers in the league. Despite being wildly inconsistent at times , Stills is starting to realize his potential. The Dolphins would like to re-sign Stills but they will face stiff competition. Prediction: Stills heads North and signs with the Eagles. The allure of playing with Carson Wentz and the money is too much to pass up.
24. Larry Warford, OG, Detroit: The Lions would like to keep Warford but I don’t think they can afford to keep Warford and Reilly Reiff. Left tackles are harder to find and develop than guards so Warford gets squeezed out. Several teams need interior offensive line help including the Washington Redskins. Warford moves to the NFC East. Prediction: Warford will add some much needed beef to a Redskins team that likes to run the football and play physical.
25. Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay: The Packers want Lacy back and he wants to be back. Lacy is in good shape right and if he can stay healthy, he and Ty Montgomery could form a potent one, two punch for the Packers. I think Lacy ends up re-signing with the Packers on a one year deal. Prediction: Lacy won’t have much of a market so why not.
26. Kenny Britt, WR, L.A. Rams: Britt revived his career last season and is ready to cash in. There are several teams that need receiver help so Britt will have a market. One of the teams that is interested is the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo needs a running mate for Sammy Watkins and Britt makes sense. Prediction: Britt takes the show to upstate New York and gives the Bills some much needed size on the outside.
27. LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England: Blount wants to return to New England but he will get better offers elsewhere. It is not out of the realm of possibly that he returns to the Patriots but it is highly unlikely. Blount will stay in the AFC but he will move South to Baltimore. That’s right. Blount will be a Raven. Prediction: Blount chaps Patriots fans by signing with the rival Ravens.
28. Jared Cook, TE, Green Bay: The Packers want to re-sign Cook and Cook wants to stay in Green Bay. He will have a market but it won’t be what Martellus Bennett has. That’s why I think he’ll end back in Green Bay. Prediction: Cook will continue his budding bromance with Aaron Rodgers.
29. Ronald Leary, OG, Dallas: Leary has been overshadowed in recent years by the more prominent members of the Cowboys offensive line. Now is his opportunity to cash in and make a name for himself. Leary will stay in the conference but move west to the Los Angeles Rams. Prediction: The Rams need to rebuild their offensive line and Leary is a good start.
30. JC Tretter, C, Green Bay: Tretter offers scheme versatility in that he can play tackle, guard and center. Teams value that. Tretter is a bit undersized but athletic. He would be a great fit with the Seattle Seahawks. Prediction: The Seahawks offensive line is young, inexperienced and lacks an anchor. Tretter could be that anchor for them.