Line: Patriots -2.5 | Over/Under: 44.5
Kickoff: The Green Bay Packers visit Gillette Stadium for the first time since 2018. The Patriots beat the Packers 31-17 in that meeting. The last time these two teams met was four years ago at Lambeau Field where the Packers beat the Patriots 27-24 in overtime. Both teams are 5-3 entering the game and are coming off of wins. Green Bay beat Carolina 27-19 on Thursday Night Football while the Patriots beat the Dolphins last week, 24-19.
Four Keys to the Game
1st Down: Limit the big plays in the passing game: Jordan Love possesses the arm talent and downfield weaponry to turn any secondary inside out if given time to scan the field. New England’s defensive backs must maintain disciplined leverage, eliminate busts in coverage, and prevent Green Bay’s pass catchers from converting routine crossing routes into chunk yardage after the catch.
2nd Down: Pass rush must throw Jordan Love off his spot: Making Love uncomfortable in the pocket is the key for the Patriots defensively. The Patriots’ front seven needs to collapse the pocket from the interior and set a firm edge on the outside to disrupt his timing, forcing him into hurried checkdowns and keeping him from stepping into deep throws.
3rd Down: Rhamondre 25 touches game: Establishing a physical, ground-and-pound plan with Rhamondre Stevenson is vital to controlling the game offensively for the Patriots. Feeding Stevenson early and often behind a banged up offensive line looking to get going will wear down the Packers’ front, milk the clock, and open up play-action opportunities downfield.
4th Down: Pass protection needs to I.D exotic blitzes well: Green Bay is notorious for deploying disguised fronts, simulated pressures, and varied blitz packages to confuse opposing protection schemes. Drake Maye and the offensive line must communicate seamlessly pre-snap to identify where the pressure is coming from, slide protection accordingly, and get the ball out quickly to avoid drive-stalling negative plays.
Extra Points: While the regular season series is tied at 6-6, New England holds a 5-2 advantage at home against Green Bay, including a 2-1 record at Gillette Stadium against the Packers. Green Bay’s only win at Gillette Stadium was a 28-10 win on Oct. 13, 2002, the Patriots first regular season loss at Gillette.
Green Bay beat New England in the one postseason meeting between the two teams, a 35-21 Packers victory in Super Bowl XXXI at the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans on Jan. 26, 1997.
The Patriots first regular season home win under Robert Kraft was on Oct. 2, 1994 in a 17-16 win against the Packers at Foxboro Stadium.
Final Drive: This game has all the makings of a four-quarter battle where coaching adjustments and red-zone execution will decide the outcome. If the Patriots can protect the football, establish Stevenson on the ground, and keep Jordan Love contained in the pocket, they can grind out a hard-earned victory in front of the home faithful.